Journal of Biogeography Page 22 of 2260 1 2 3 4 5 Supporting Information 6 7 8 9 Testing species assemblage predictions from stacked and 10 11 joint species distribution models 12 13 14 Damaris Zurell, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Helge Gross, Andri Baltensweiler, Thomas Sattler, 15 16 Rafael O. Wüest 17 18 19 20 This supporting information contains the following items: 21 For Peer Review 22 • Table S1. Forest bird species included in analyses. 23 • Table S2. Tree and shrub species included in the analyses. 24 • Fig. S1. Distribution of bird and tree prevalence levels. 25 26 • Fig. S2. Spatial blocks used in 5-fold spatial block cross-validation. 27 • Fig. S3. Predictor variables for forest bird and tree species analyses. 28 • Fig. S4. Single species model performance. 29 30 • Fig. S5. Spatial autocorrelation in model residuals. 31 • Fig. S6. Prevalence of species with higher JSDM or SDM performance. 32 • Fig. S7. Assemblage sensitivity and specificity. 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 Page 23 of 2260 Journal of Biogeography 1 2 3 Supplementary Tables 4 5 6 7 Table S1. Forest bird species included in the analyses. For each species, we list the predictive performance achieved in the single-species ensemble SDMs and JSDMs (cf. Fig. S3). 8 9 JSDM SDM 10 11 Latin Name English Name AUC Sens Spec TSS AUC Sens Spec TSS 12 Accipiter gentilis Northern 13 Goshawk 0.61 0.83 0.34 0.17 0.85 0.81 0.75 0.56 14 Accipiter nisus Eurasian 15 Sparrowhawk 0.56 0.79 0.32 0.10 0.85 0.85 0.75 0.59 16 Aegithalos Long-tailed 17 caudatus Bushtit 0.67 0.89 0.37 0.27 0.83 0.80 0.72 0.52 18 Anthus trivialis Tree Pipit 19 0.83 0.79 0.77 0.56 0.90 0.88 0.78 0.66 20 Asio otus Long-eared Owl 0.54 0.46 0.71 0.17 0.94 0.91 0.90 0.80 21 Bonasa bonasia Hazel GrouseFor Peer0.60 0.12Review0.95 0.07 0.94 1.00 0.79 0.79 22 Buteo buteo Common 23 Buzzard 0.85 0.77 0.77 0.54 0.90 0.78 0.84 0.62 24 25 Carduelis spinus Eurasian Siskin 0.83 0.89 0.67 0.56 0.89 0.94 0.70 0.64 26 Certhia Short-toed 27 brachydactyla Treecreeper 0.88 0.85 0.77 0.62 0.92 0.88 0.81 0.68 28 Certhia Eurasian 29 familiaris Treecreeper 0.74 0.61 0.73 0.34 0.83 0.74 0.75 0.48 30 Coccothraustes Hawfinch 31 coccothraustes 0.76 0.87 0.54 0.41 0.86 0.77 0.78 0.54 32 Columba oenas Stock Dove 33 0.75 0.93 0.53 0.46 0.88 0.93 0.71 0.64 34 Columba Common Wood 35 palumbus Pigeon 0.89 0.83 0.80 0.63 0.92 0.87 0.81 0.68 36 Corvus corax Northern Raven 0.58 0.60 0.52 0.12 0.79 0.82 0.62 0.44 37 Corvus corone Carrion Crow 38 corone 0.82 0.68 0.83 0.51 0.89 0.79 0.86 0.65 39 Cuculus canorus Common Cuckoo 40 0.63 0.49 0.74 0.24 0.78 0.77 0.65 0.41 41 Dendrocopos Great Spotted 42 major Woodpecker 0.81 0.73 0.75 0.48 0.87 0.74 0.84 0.58 43 Dendrocopos Lesser Spotted 44 minor Woodpecker 0.83 0.85 0.64 0.49 0.90 0.95 0.71 0.67 45 Dryocopus Black 46 martius Woodpecker 0.72 0.91 0.43 0.34 0.83 0.88 0.62 0.50 47 Emberiza Yellowhammer 48 citrinella 0.82 0.75 0.75 0.50 0.89 0.85 0.76 0.61 49 Falco subbuteo Eurasian Hobby 50 0.78 0.92 0.54 0.46 0.90 0.91 0.74 0.65 51 Ficedula European Pied 52 hypoleuca Flycatcher 0.75 0.90 0.55 0.45 0.85 0.88 0.67 0.55 53 Garrulus Eurasian Jay 54 glandarius 0.81 0.80 0.67 0.48 0.90 0.76 0.85 0.60 55 Hippolais Icterine warbler 56 icterina 0.75 0.50 0.88 0.38 0.95 0.98 0.85 0.83 57 Lanius collurio Red-backed 58 Shrike 0.66 0.91 0.34 0.25 0.84 0.73 0.79 0.52 59 Loxia Red Crossbill 60 curvirostra 0.79 0.74 0.73 0.47 0.86 0.87 0.70 0.57 Journal of Biogeography Page 24 of 2260 1 2 3 Luscinia Common 4 megarhynchos Nightingale 0.91 0.78 0.85 0.63 0.95 0.98 0.83 0.82 5 Milvus migrans Black Kite 6 0.79 0.81 0.64 0.45 0.86 0.92 0.64 0.56 7 Muscicapa Spotted 8 striata Flycatcher 0.79 0.86 0.63 0.49 0.86 0.89 0.65 0.55 9 Nucifraga Spotted 10 caryocatactes Nutcracker 0.88 0.91 0.74 0.65 0.92 0.90 0.80 0.70 11 Oriolus oriolus Eurasian Golden 12 Oriole 0.90 0.88 0.79 0.67 0.93 0.97 0.79 0.76 13 Parus caeruleus Blue Tit 0.92 0.90 0.83 0.73 0.96 0.91 0.85 0.75 14 15 Parus cristatus European 16 Crested Tit 0.81 0.81 0.65 0.46 0.88 0.79 0.79 0.58 17 Parus montanus Willow Tit 0.86 0.83 0.82 0.65 0.91 0.85 0.83 0.69 18 Parus palustris Marsh Tit 0.82 0.80 0.74 0.54 0.89 0.84 0.75 0.59 19 Pernis apivorus European Honey 20 Buzzard 0.58 0.90 0.25 0.15 0.87 0.95 0.69 0.64 21 Phoenicurus CommonFor Peer Review 22 23 phoenicurus Redstart 0.61 0.77 0.43 0.20 0.81 0.76 0.72 0.49 24 Phylloscopus Western Bonellis 25 bonelli Warbler 0.68 0.55 0.75 0.30 0.86 0.85 0.70 0.55 26 Phylloscopus Wood Warbler 27 sibilatrix 0.74 0.79 0.63 0.41 0.85 0.80 0.74 0.54 28 Phylloscopus Willow Warbler 29 trochilus 0.69 0.87 0.49 0.36 0.84 0.81 0.72 0.53 30 Picus canus Grey-headed 31 Woodpecker 0.80 0.79 0.70 0.49 0.90 0.92 0.79 0.71 32 Picus viridis European Green 33 34 Woodpecker 0.67 0.71 0.54 0.26 0.81 0.72 0.74 0.46 35 Prunella Dunnock 36 modularis 0.77 0.64 0.77 0.41 0.86 0.75 0.80 0.55 37 Pyrrhula Eurasian 38 pyrrhula Bullfinch 0.79 0.74 0.69 0.43 0.87 0.72 0.83 0.55 39 Regulus Firecrest 40 ignicapillus 0.83 0.76 0.78 0.54 0.89 0.82 0.79 0.62 41 Regulus regulus Goldcrest 0.80 0.85 0.64 0.49 0.88 0.78 0.80 0.58 42 Serinus Citril Finch 43 44 citrinella 0.88 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.92 0.99 0.73 0.73 45 Sitta europaea Eurasian 46 Nuthatch 0.84 0.77 0.78 0.55 0.90 0.80 0.81 0.61 47 Streptopelia European Turtle 48 turtur Dove 0.85 0.80 0.78 0.57 0.93 0.99 0.80 0.79 49 Strix aluco Tawny Owl 0.60 0.71 0.46 0.16 0.86 0.89 0.70 0.59 50 Sylvia borin Garden Warbler 51 0.69 0.56 0.73 0.29 0.81 0.72 0.76 0.48 52 Sylvia curruca Lesser 53 Whitethroat 0.84 0.80 0.80 0.60 0.91 0.89 0.78 0.67 54 Tetrao tetrix Black Grouse 0.94 0.97 0.80 0.78 0.96 0.96 0.88 0.83 55 Turdus pilaris Fieldfare 0.65 0.81 0.45 0.26 0.81 0.65 0.82 0.47 56 Turdus Ring Ouzel 57 torquatus 0.94 0.98 0.84 0.82 0.96 0.99 0.85 0.84 58 59 Turdus Mistle Thrush 60 viscivorus 0.79 0.77 0.70 0.47 0.87 0.79 0.77 0.56 Page 25 of 2260 Journal of Biogeography 1 2 3 4 5 Table S2. Tree and shrub species included in the analyses. For each species, we list the predictive 6 performance achieved in the single-species ensemble SDMs and JSDMs (cf. Fig. S3). 7 8 JSDM SDM 9 Latin Name English Name AUC Sens Spec TSS AUC Sens Spec TSS 10 Abies alba Silver Fir 11 0.82 0.79 0.71 0.50 0.88 0.86 0.72 0.58 12 Acer campestris Hedge Maple 0.82 0.76 0.74 0.50 0.92 0.99 0.74 0.73 13 Acer opalus Italian Maple 0.67 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.97 1.00 0.93 0.93 14 Acer platanoides Norway Maple 15 0.74 0.88 0.55 0.43 0.93 0.95 0.82 0.77 16 Acer Sycamore 17 pseudoplatanus Maple 0.75 0.80 0.60 0.39 0.85 0.72 0.79 0.51 18 Alnus glutinosa Black Alder 0.82 0.84 0.68 0.53 0.97 1.00 0.92 0.92 19 Alnus incana European Alder 0.68 0.76 0.51 0.27 0.90 0.93 0.70 0.64 20 Alnus viridis Green Alder 21 For Peer0.90 0.80Review0.83 0.63 0.94 0.98 0.78 0.76 22 Berberis vulgaris Barberry 0.81 0.64 0.87 0.51 0.97 0.99 0.90 0.89 23 Betula pendula Weeping Birch 0.74 0.79 0.57 0.36 0.87 0.89 0.68 0.57 24 Carpinus betulus Hornbeam 0.89 0.94 0.76 0.70 0.95 0.96 0.86 0.83 25 26 Castanea sativa Sweet Chestnut 0.89 0.71 0.92 0.63 0.99 0.99 0.94 0.93 27 Clematis vitalba Old Mans 28 Beard 0.82 0.79 0.73 0.52 0.93 0.98 0.81 0.78 29 Cornus sanguinea Red Dogwood 0.82 0.61 0.80 0.40 0.92 0.96 0.74 0.70 30 Corylus avellana Hazel 31 0.74 0.82 0.57 0.39 0.84 0.78 0.73 0.51 32 Crataegus Common 33 monogyna Hawthorn 0.76 0.75 0.66 0.41 0.92 0.90 0.79 0.68 34 Crataegus English 35 oxyacanta Hawthorn 0.81 0.85 0.65 0.50 0.94 0.98 0.77 0.75 36 Daphne Paradise Plant 37 mezereum 0.54 0.47 0.60 0.07 0.97 0.92 0.92 0.84 38 Euonymus European 39 europaeus Spindle Tree 0.86 0.65 0.84 0.48 0.95 0.98 0.82 0.80 40 Fagus sylvatica Beech 41 0.92 0.87 0.83 0.70 0.95 0.87 0.87 0.74 42 Fraxinus excelsior Ash 0.82 0.82 0.72 0.54 0.89 0.88 0.71 0.59 43 Hedera helix English Ivy 0.85 0.91 0.67 0.58 0.91 0.89 0.80 0.69 44 Ilex aquifolium English Holly 0.82 0.91 0.61 0.53 0.95 0.94 0.85 0.79 45 46 Juglans regia Walnut 0.81 0.92 0.63 0.55 0.95 0.97 0.88 0.85 47 Juniperus Common 48 communis Juniper 0.82 0.68 0.76 0.44 0.95 0.96 0.86 0.82 49 Juniperus Common 50 communis ssp Juniper (Ssp 51 alpina Alpina) 0.87 0.75 0.85 0.59 0.96 0.97 0.88 0.86 52 Larix decidua European 53 Larch 0.79 0.67 0.78 0.45 0.88 0.77 0.81 0.58 54 55 Ligustrum vulgare Common Privet 0.82 0.37 0.88 0.25 0.92 0.96 0.76 0.72 56 Lonicera alpigena Alpine 57 Honeysuckle 0.67 0.74 0.50 0.24 0.94 0.95 0.82 0.77 58 Lonicera caerulea Blue 59 Honeysuckle 0.60 0.18 0.87 0.05 0.99 0.98 0.97 0.95 60 Lonicera nigra Black Honeysuckle 0.66 0.74 0.52 0.26 0.94 0.94 0.84 0.78 Journal of Biogeography Page 26 of 2260 1 2 3 Lonicera European Fly 4 xylosteum Honeysuckle 0.71 0.84 0.51 0.35 0.85 0.74 0.77 0.51 5 Picea abies Norway Spruce 6 0.75 0.74 0.64 0.38 0.88 0.73 0.88 0.61 7 Pinus cembra Swiss Stone 8 Pine 0.95 0.89 0.90 0.79 0.98 0.99 0.91 0.90 9 Pinus mugo Mountain Pine 10 arborea (Var Arborea) 0.86 0.04 0.99 0.03 0.98 0.98 0.92 0.91 11 Pinus mugo Mountain Pine 12 prostrata (Var Prostrata) 0.91 0.68 0.89 0.57 0.98 1.00 0.94 0.94 13 Pinus sylvestris Scots Pine 0.73 0.83 0.54 0.36 0.88 0.86 0.75 0.62 14 15 Populus tremula Aspen 0.70 0.52 0.75 0.28 0.94 0.94 0.86 0.80 16 Prunus avium Sweet Cherry 0.80 0.84 0.64 0.48 0.88 0.88 0.71 0.59 17 Prunus padus European Bird 18 Cherry 0.79 0.62 0.85 0.46 0.97 0.98 0.91 0.88 19 Prunus spinosa Blackthorn 0.78 0.25 0.91 0.16 0.95 0.97 0.84 0.81 20 21 Pseudotsuga DouglasFor Fir Peer Review 22 menziesii 0.85 0.81 0.77 0.58 0.98 0.99 0.93 0.92 23 Quercus petraea Eych 0.85 0.92 0.65 0.57 0.92 0.97 0.77 0.74 24 Quercus Downy Oak 25 pubescens 0.84 0.45 0.96 0.41 0.99 1.00