Department of Environmental Studies DISSERTATION COMMITTEE PAGE The undersigned have examined the dissertation entitled: ANALYSIS OF LAND USE/LAND COVER CHANGE IMPACTS UPON ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN MONTANE TROPICAL FOREST OF RWANDA: FOREST CARBON ASSESSMENT AND REDD+ PREPAREDNESS Presented by McArd Joseph Mlotha Candidate for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Environmental Studies) Committee chair: Beth A. Kaplin, PhD Title/Affiliation: Professor, Antioch University New England, Department of Environmental Studies Committee member: Peter Palmiotto, DF Title/Affiliation: Core Faculty at Antioch University New England, Department of Environmental Studies Committee member: Naikoa Aguilar-Amuchastegui, PhD Title/Affiliation: Director Forest Carbon Science, Lead Forest Carbon MRV Team leader, Forests and Climate, World Wildlife Fund (WWF-US). Defense Date: 5th April 2018 *Signatures are on file with the Registrar’s Office at Antioch University New England © Copyright by McArd Joseph Mlotha, 2018, All rights reserved ANALYSIS OF LAND USE/LAND COVER CHANGE IMPACTS UPON ECOSYSTEM SERVICES IN MONTANE TROPICAL FOREST OF RWANDA: FOREST CARBON ASSESSMENT AND REDD+ PREPAREDNESS by McArd Joseph Mlotha MA GISDE. Clark University, Worcester, MA, 2004 A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy (Environmental Studies) at Antioch University New England Keene, New Hampshire, USA 2018 DEDICATION This dissertation is dedicated to my beloved late parents, my late father, Laston Bywell Songiso Mlotha, and my late mother Cecilia Laston Mlotha (Nyamvula), whom I cherish as my role models, full of love and care. I am grateful for the great love and support, you taught me to work hard and persevere right from my childhood to this day, and I will miss you forever. I wish you were available to witness the fruits of your great work as parents. RIP Mum and Dad 4 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The journey has been long with so many ups and downs, gains and losses, twists and turns; however, I met many nice people along this journey to whom I am indebted to acknowledge here for their encouragement, support and guidance to reach the PhD defense. I would never have been able to finish my dissertation without the guidance of my committee members, help from very kind and lovely friends, and support from my family and brethren in Christ. I am very thankful to my advisor Dr Beth Kaplin and chair of my committee for her caring and patience, for providing me with excellent guidance and for being very helpful and very supportive throughout this journey. You opened your house, which I call home far from home, and your family was so amazing and loving, Definitely, I will miss your husband James Jordan and your daughter Stella Jordan; they were very welcoming and encouraging in many ways. I would like to thank my advisor and member of my committee Dr Peter Palmiotto for his wonderful support and encouragements and for being very supportive throughout the difficult times. I would like to thank Dr Naikoa Aguilar-Amuchastegui of WWF-USA, a member of my committee, from whom I benefited due to his critical reviews to improve my dissertation and his support and patience throughout the dissertation process. To my colleagues and members of my cohort together with other students, faculty members and staff, I say thank you for making my stay in Keene and my life at Antioch University New England a pleasant and memorable time. Special thanks to Dr Nancy Rich, Dr Kirsten Martin, Dr Robin Martino, and Dr Tharcisse Ukizintambara, who were very encouraging and supportive and available for any question, including my curiosity over 5 cultural differences. Dr Tharcisse Ukizintambara helped with French-English translation for the readings which were only available in French. I am very grateful to Provost Melinda Treadwell and past University Presidents David Caruso and Stephen Jones for financial aid through Jonathan Daniels and Norman Wilson scholarships, without which it was not possible to pay for tuition fees some of the semesters. I would like to thank Idea Wild for the provision of field equipment and the Center for Tropical Ecology and Conservation (CTEC) at Antioch University New England in Keene for the field travel grant. There are many other friends who financially contributed towards my fieldwork and I am very thankful to all. In Rwanda, I thank Dr Michel Masozera, who was the Country Director of the Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS), for providing me with 2009 biodiversity data for Nyungwe National Park and with field staff, and for allowing me to use the WCS facilities. I thank Dr Gaspard Rwanyiziri, the Director of Centre for GIS and remote sensing research and training at the University of Rwanda, College of Sciences, for providing me with a working place. I thank my field team, Damieni Ntawurimeza, Mika Nsanzimana and Alberick Dushimimana led by Jean Baptiste Gakima, who was very motivated and supportive in the field as well as at campsite. I appreciate their zeal and willingness to work even in difficult conditions of too much rain and cutting through thick forest. I thank the Rwanda Development Board (RDB)-Kigali for permission to carry out research within Nyungwe National Park and I thank Louis Rugerinyange, the former Chief Warden, RDB Nyungwe National Park together with Park Rangers for support and permission to work or camp within the Ranger posts during field work. 6 Finally, I would also like to thank the Mlothas, especially my beloved Dorothy, Eleazer, Rejoice and Victory, for their patience, great love, and encouragement for this very long journey. I am very thankful and I missed you all. It has not been easy to miss many of your birthdays and Christmas times plus visits to the village. I thank you for your prayers and best wishes, may God bless you all. Thank you very much, everyone! 7 ABSTRACT Changes in forest cover, especially changes within tropical forests, affect global climate change, together with ecosystems and forest carbon. Forests play a key role in both carbon emission and carbon sequestration. Efforts to reduce emissions through reduced deforestation and degradation of forests have become a common discussion among scientists and politicians under the auspices of the United Nations Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (UN-REDD Programme). This dissertation research assessed the impacts of land use land cover change upon ecosystem services from a protected area focusing on forest carbon distribution and vegetation mapping using remote sensing and geographical information systems (GIS). I also assessed Rwanda’s preparedness in the United Nations global program, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, Measuring, Monitoring, Reporting, and Verifying (REDD+MMRV). I carried out research in Nyungwe National Park (NNP), one of four National Parks of Rwanda. NNP is a montane tropical forest located in the Albertine Rift, one of the most biodiverse places in central and east Africa. I used remote sensing and field data collection from December 2011 and July 2012 in the western part of the Park to assess distribution and quantities of aboveground (ABG) forest carbon using generalized allometric functions. Using Landsat data together with 2009 high resolution color orthophotos and groundtruthing, I analyzed land cover changes between 1986 and 2011 for NNP. The landuse land cover change analysis showed that between 1986 and 1995 there was a minor increase in forest cover from 53% to 58% while from 1995-2003 a substantial decrease in forest cover occurred. Between 2003 and 2011 was a period of recovery with forest cover increasing by 59%. Vegetation analysis based on a 2009 Park biodiversity survey yielded 13 vegetation communities based on dominant and co-dominant species. Macaranga kilimandscharica was 8 found to be dominant in three communities, representing 42% of the Park, and co-dominant in one community, representing 7% of the Park. While ~50% of the Park is secondary forest, the change in protection status has had a positive impact upon forest cover change within the Park. Assessment of REDD+-MMRV readiness revealed that Rwanda has higher capacity and readiness in remote sensing and GIS than in forest inventory and carbon pools inventory. Lack of data to support development of emission models is a major problem at the national level which needs to be addressed. Key words: Carbon, emission, land cover change, land use, orthophotos, protected areas, Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, Measuring, Monitoring, Reporting, and Verifying (REDD+MMRV), tropical forest, vegetation communities. 9 TABLE OF CONTENTS DEDICATION ............................................................................................................................. 4 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ............................................................................................................ 5 ABSTRACT ................................................................................................................................. 8 TABLE OF CONTENTS ........................................................................................................... 10 LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................... 11 LIST OF TABLES ..................................................................................................................... 13 Chapter 1: Introduction