Buller District Council Lifelines Study Alpine Fault Earthquake Scenario Buller District Council June 2006 IMPORTANT NOTES Disclaimer The information collected and presented in this report and accompanying documents by the Consultants and supplied to Buller District Council is accurate to the best of the knowledge and belief of the Consultants acting on behalf of Buller District Council. While the Consultants have exercised all reasonable skill and care in the preparation of information in this report, neither the Consultants nor Buller District Council accept any liability in contract, tort or otherwise for any loss, damage, injury or expense, whether direct, indirect or consequential, arising out of the provision of information in this report. Earthquake Hazard Maps The hazard maps contained in this report are regional in scope and detail, and should not be considered as a substitute for site-specific investigations and/or geotechnical engineering assessments for any project. Qualified and experienced practitioners should assess the site-specific hazard potential, including the potential for damage, at a more detailed scale. Buller District Council Lifelines Study Alpine Fault Earthquake Scenario & Lifelines Vulnerability Assessment Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY PART I – INTRODUCTION AND METHODOLOGY 1 INTRODUCTION.......................................................................................................................21 PART II – THE ALPINE FAULT EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO 2 EARTHQUAKE OVERVIEW FOR BULLER DISTRICT ...................................................24 2.1 SELECTION OF EARTHQUAKE EVENT.........................................................................................24 2.2 COMPARISON OF HISTORIC AND ALPINE FAULT EARTHQUAKES...............................................27 2.3 EARTHQUAKE EFFECTS.............................................................................................................27 2.4 GROUND SHAKING HAZARD .....................................................................................................28 2.5 LIQUEFACTION HAZARD ...........................................................................................................41 2.5.1 Extent of Liquefaction potential......................................................................................41 2.5.2 Liquefaction Zones .........................................................................................................42 2.6 LANDSLIDES..............................................................................................................................43 2.7 SEICHES ....................................................................................................................................45 2.8 TSUNAMI...................................................................................................................................45 3 HISTORICAL EARTHQUAKES .............................................................................................47 3.1 1929 BULLER EARTHQUAKE .....................................................................................................47 3.1.1 General...........................................................................................................................47 3.1.2 Roads ..............................................................................................................................48 3.1.3 Railway...........................................................................................................................51 3.1.4 Port.................................................................................................................................51 3.1.5 Drainage.........................................................................................................................52 3.1.6 Communications .............................................................................................................53 3.1.7 Water ..............................................................................................................................54 3.1.8 Sewer ..............................................................................................................................55 3.2 1968 INANGAHUA EARTHQUAKE...............................................................................................55 3.2.1 Roads ..............................................................................................................................55 3.2.2 Railway...........................................................................................................................56 3.2.3 Drainage.........................................................................................................................56 3.2.4 Telecommunications .......................................................................................................56 3.2.5 Electricity........................................................................................................................57 3.2.6 Water and Sewer.............................................................................................................57 4 ALPINE FAULT EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO –PHYSICAL EFFECTS...........................58 4.1 INTRODUCTION .........................................................................................................................58 4.2 TIME ZERO - 10:15AM ON A WEEKDAY MORNING IN LATE WINTER...........................................58 4.3 TIME ZERO PLUS 1 MINUTE........................................................................................................59 4.4 TIME ZERO PLUS 1 HOUR ...........................................................................................................61 4.5 TIME ZERO PLUS 3 HOURS .........................................................................................................62 4.6 TIME ZERO PLUS 9 HOURS .........................................................................................................63 4.7 TIME ZERO PLUS 24 HOURS .......................................................................................................63 4.8 TIME ZERO PLUS 48 HOURS .......................................................................................................64 4.9 TIME ZERO PLUS 1 WEEK...........................................................................................................65 4.10 TIME ZERO PLUS 2 WEEKS ....................................................................................................66 4.11 TIME ZERO PLUS 1 MONTH....................................................................................................67 4.12 TIME ZERO PLUS 1 YEAR.......................................................................................................68 5 ALPINE FAULT EARTHQUAKE SCENARIO –EFFECT ON INDIVIDUALS ................70 5.1 HOKITIKA BUSINESSMAN..........................................................................................................70 5.1.1 First three days...............................................................................................................71 5.1.2 One month after..............................................................................................................73 5.1.3 One year after.................................................................................................................74 5.2 KOKATAHI FARMER ..................................................................................................................75 5.2.1 First three days...............................................................................................................75 5.2.2 One month ......................................................................................................................77 5.2.3 One year .........................................................................................................................78 5.3 FRANZ JOSEF TOURIST ..............................................................................................................78 5.3.1 First three days...............................................................................................................78 5.3.2 One month after..............................................................................................................79 5.3.3 One year after.................................................................................................................80 5.4 HOKITIKA RESIDENT.................................................................................................................80 5.4.1 First three days...............................................................................................................80 5.4.2 One month after..............................................................................................................81 5.4.3 One year After ................................................................................................................82 PART III – INTERDEPENDENCIES & LIFELINES 6 INTERDEPENDENCIES – POST EARTHQUAKE...............................................................83 6.1 INDIVIDUAL NEEDS...................................................................................................................83 6.1.1 Three Days......................................................................................................................89 6.1.2 End of First Month .........................................................................................................91