The Private Sector Led Development of On-grid Wind Power in Tunisia Project - Final Evaluation 29 May 2015 Table of Contents List of Acronyms ............................................................................................................................ 4 List of Tables .................................................................................................................................. 6 List of Figures ................................................................................................................................. 6 Acknowledgements ......................................................................................................................... 7 Project Summary ............................................................................................................................. 8 Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................ 9 1. Scope of Evaluation and Methodology ..................................................................................... 18 1.1 Scope of Evaluation ............................................................................................................ 18 1.2 Methodology ....................................................................................................................... 18 1.2.1 Desk review ................................................................................................................. 19 1.2.2 Survey .......................................................................................................................... 19 1.2.3 Consultations................................................................................................................ 19 1.2.4 Time Schedule for the FE ............................................................................................ 19 1.3 Structure of the Report ........................................................................................................ 20 2. Project Overview and Development Context ........................................................................... 21 2.1 Project Start and Duration ................................................................................................... 21 2.2 Development Context ......................................................................................................... 21 2.2.1 Problems Addressed..................................................................................................... 21 2.2.2 Immediate and Development Objectives of the Project .............................................. 27 2.2.3 Main Stakeholders ....................................................................................................... 28 2.2.4 Components, Outcomes and Results Expected ............................................................ 32 2.2.5 Key Elements of Project Planning ............................................................................... 33 3. Project Design and Implementation .......................................................................................... 33 3.1 Project Outcomes ........................................................................................................... 33 3.2 Project Implementation Approach ................................................................................. 33 3.3 Project Relevance ........................................................................................................... 35 3.3.1 Relevance at National Level ................................................................................... 35 3.3.2 Relevance to Multilateral Environmental Agreements ................................................ 37 3.3.3 Relevance to GEF Strategies, Priorities and Principles ............................................... 38 3.3.4 Country-drivenness and ownership.............................................................................. 38 3.3.5 Stakeholder Participation in Implementation............................................................... 39 3.4 Project Management and Cost Effectiveness (Efficiency) ................................................. 41 3.5 Financial Planning by Component and Co-financing ......................................................... 43 3.5.1 Financial Planning by Component ............................................................................... 43 3.5.2 Co-financing ................................................................................................................ 46 Page | 1 3.6 Flexibility and Adaptive Management................................................................................ 47 3.7 UNDP Project Oversight..................................................................................................... 48 3.7.1 Mainstreaming other UNDP Priorities......................................................................... 49 3.8 Risks & Assumptions .......................................................................................................... 49 3.9 Indicators for Monitoring and Evaluation........................................................................... 51 4. Project Performance and Results (Effectiveness) ..................................................................... 54 4.1 Progress Towards Achievement of Expected Objective and Outcomes ............................. 54 4.1.1 Development Objective ............................................................................................... 55 4.1.2 Outcome 1: Enabling regulatory and institutional framework has been established in support of on-grid renewable energy.. .................................................................................. 56 4.1.3Outcome 2: Technical and organizational capabilities of key stakeholders have been strengthened. ......................................................................................................................... 56 4.1.4 Outcome 3: IPP Group is able to launch private wind concession program. .............. 58 4.1.5 Outcome 4: Monitoring and evaluation support provided. .......................................... 59 5. Key GEF Performance Parameters ........................................................................................... 60 5.1 Sustainability....................................................................................................................... 60 5.1.1 Financial Risks to Sustainability .................................................................................. 60 5.1.2 Socio-political Risks to Sustainability ......................................................................... 61 5.1.3 Institutional Framework and Governance Risks to Sustainability ............................... 61 5.1.4 Environmental Risks to Sustainability ......................................................................... 61 5.2 Catalytic Role: Replication and Scaling-up ........................................................................ 61 5.3 Monitoring and Evaluation ................................................................................................. 62 5.4 Project Impacts and Global Environmental Benefits .......................................................... 62 6. Main Lessons Learned and Recommendations......................................................................... 64 6.1 Lessons from the Experience of the Project ....................................................................... 64 6.2 Final Evaluation Ratings ..................................................................................................... 67 Bibliography ................................................................................................................................. 74 Annex 1 – TOR for the Final Evaluation ...................................................................................... 75 Annex 2 – Evaluation Questionnaire for Survey Among Stakeholders ....................................... 81 Annex 3 – Responses of Stakeholders to Questionnaire Survey .................................................. 88 Annex 4 – Stakeholders Consulted for the FE .............................................................................. 90 Annex 5 – Strategic Results Framework of the Project ................................................................ 92 Annex 6 - List of Additional Activities and Indicators Proposed in MTE Report ....................... 96 Annex 7 – Baseline supporting activities and parallel financing .................................................. 97 Annex 8 - Calculation of GHG emission reductions .................................................................. 101 Annex 9 – The Project Board – Role and Responsibilities ......................................................... 106 Page | 2 Annex 10 - Evaluation Consultant Code of Conduct and Agreement Form .............................. 108 Annex 11 – Evaluation Report Clearance Form ......................................................................... 109 Annex 12 – UNDP-GEF TE Report Audit Trail – PIMS 2129 .................................................. 110 Annex 13 – GEF Tracking Tool – PIMS 2129 ........................................................................... 111 Page | 3 List of Acronyms AfD Agence Française de Développement ANME Agence Nationale pour la Maîtrise de l’Energie BAU Business as usual BMU German Federal Ministry for the