Regional Public Transportation Authority Scottsdale Road/Rural Road Alternatives Analysis Study Draft Final Report Prepared for: RPTA Prepared by: In Association with: URS Corporation March, 2011 Draft Final Report Scottsdale Road/Rural Road Alternatives Analysis Study March 2011 Table of Contents Chapter 1 - Problem Definition .................................................................................................. 1 1.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 1 1.1.1 Background ..................................................................................................... 1 1.1.2 Study Corridor ................................................................................................. 1 1.1.3 Study Objectives .............................................................................................. 3 1.2 Previous Planning for the Scottsdale Road/Rural Road Corridor ............................................ 3 1.3 Existing Transportation Conditions and Future Changes ...................................................... 5 1.3.1 Roadway System .............................................................................................. 5 1.3.2 Existing Average Daily Traffic ............................................................................. 5 1.3.3 Level of Service ................................................................................................ 7 1.4 Existing Fixed Transit Routes and Services ........................................................................ 7 1.5 Transit Passenger Facilities ........................................................................................... 16 1.6 Demand Responsive Transit .......................................................................................... 16 1.7 Current and Short-Term Transit Deficiencies ................................................................... 16 1.8 Bicycle and Pedestrian Ways ......................................................................................... 19 1.9 Programmed and Planned Improvements ....................................................................... 19 1.9.1 Current Capital Improvement Programs ............................................................. 19 1.9.2 MAG Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) ................................................ 22 1.9.3 Planned RTP Transit Improvements ................................................................... 23 1.9.4 Other Planned and Proposed Improvements ....................................................... 24 1.10 Land Use and Community Development ......................................................................... 24 1.10.1 Existing Land Use Characteristics ...................................................................... 24 1.10.2 Zoning .......................................................................................................... 24 1.10.3 Planned Land Use Characteristics ...................................................................... 24 1.10.4 Transit-Oriented Development Plans and Policies ................................................. 28 1.10.5 Activity Centers and Development Proposals ....................................................... 29 1.11 Transit Demand Indicators ........................................................................................... 29 1.11.1 Population and Employment ............................................................................. 29 1.11.2 Existing Ridership Characteristics and Trends ...................................................... 36 1.12 Issues, Opportunities and Constraints ............................................................................ 40 Chapter 2 - Travel Demand Characteristics and Forecasts ....................................................... 42 2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 42 2.2 MAG 2030 Regional Travel Demand Model ...................................................................... 42 2.2.1 2030 No-Build Roadway Network Assumptions .................................................... 43 2.2.2 2030 No-Build Roadway Travel Forecasts ........................................................... 43 2.2.3 2030 No-Build Transit Network Assumptions ....................................................... 43 2.2.4 MAG 2030 No-Build Transit Travel Forecasts ....................................................... 45 2.2.5 MAG 2030 No-Build Route 72 Demand Characteristics .......................................... 45 2.3 Regional Transit Framework Study (MAG) ....................................................................... 47 2.4 ASU Travel Demand Analysis (METRO) ........................................................................... 48 Page i Draft Final Report Scottsdale Road/Rural Road Alternatives Analysis Study March 2011 2.5 RPTA Origin-Destination Studies .................................................................................... 49 2.6 Summary of Findings ................................................................................................... 50 Chapter 3 - Purpose and Need ................................................................................................. 51 3.1 Statement of Purpose .................................................................................................. 51 3.2 Need for the Proposed Project ....................................................................................... 51 Chapter 4 - Development of Transit Investment Alternatives .................................................. 53 4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 53 4.2 Proposed Corridor Segments ......................................................................................... 53 4.2.1 Detailed Corridor Schematics ............................................................................ 56 4.3 Three Dimensions of Potential Transit Investments .......................................................... 56 4.3.1 Possible Transit Modes ..................................................................................... 58 4.3.2 Alternatives for Sharing Lanes and On-Street Placement ...................................... 60 4.4 Results of Multi-Agency Alternatives Workshop: June 15, 2010 ......................................... 61 4.5 Proposed Corridor-Length Alternatives for Evaluation ....................................................... 64 4.5.1 Community Meetings (First Round) .................................................................... 66 4.6 Refinements to Alternatives .......................................................................................... 68 4.6.1 Proposed Locations for Bus Stops or Stations ...................................................... 68 4.6.2 Candidate Intersections for Queue Jumpers and Signal Prioritization ...................... 73 4.7 Travel Time Savings Analysis ........................................................................................ 76 4.7.1 Baseline Condition .......................................................................................... 76 4.7.2 Alternative 1 – Limited Stop Bus ....................................................................... 77 4.7.3 Alternative 2 – BRT with Shared Lanes............................................................... 77 4.7.4 Alternative 3a, 3b, 3c – BRT with BAT Lanes ....................................................... 77 4.7.5 Alternative 4 – Exclusive Median Transit Lanes .................................................... 77 4.7.6 Conclusion ..................................................................................................... 77 Chapter 5 - Evaluation of Transit Investment Alternatives ...................................................... 80 5.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 80 5.1.1 Alternatives ................................................................................................... 80 5.2 Evaluation Methodology ............................................................................................... 81 5.2.1 Tier 1 Evaluation Methodology .......................................................................... 81 5.2.2 Tier 2 Evaluation Methodology .......................................................................... 82 5.3 Evaluation of Alternatives ............................................................................................. 86 5.3.1 Tier 1 Evaluation ............................................................................................ 86 5.3.2 Tier 2 Evaluation ............................................................................................ 86 5.4 Conclusions and Recommendations .............................................................................. 101 5.4.1 Conclusions .................................................................................................. 101 5.4.2 Study Recommendations ................................................................................ 102 Chapter 6 - Project Finance ................................................................................................... 104 6.1 Federal Funding for Capital Costs