UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA, IRVINE Nuclear Debates and Political Competition in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan: Denuclearization or Nuclear Latency in the aftermath of Fukushima DISSERTATION submitted in partial satisfaction of the requirements for the degree of DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in Political Science by Alex Chang Lee Dissertation Committee: Professor Etel Solingen, Chair Associate Professor Caesar Sereseres Emeritus Professor Patrick M. Morgan 2019 © 2019 Alex Chang Lee DEDICATION To my parents Wan Shik Lee and Hyun Ae Ham and to the love of my life, Min Jin Chung and my darling children Tay Ha Lee and June Ha Lee ii TABLE OF CONTENTS Page LIST OF FIGURES iv LIST OF TABLES vi LIST OF ACRONYMNS vii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS viii CURRICULUM VITAE ix ABSTRACT OF THE DISSERTATION xii CHAPTER 1: Introduction 1 Scope and Terminology 12 The Systematic Relationship between Nuclear Debates and Nuclear Spectrums 14 Political Segmentation and Competition 21 Research Design 31 Roadmap 36 CHAPTER 2: Altering Conditions and Competing Explanation 39 Shifting International and Domestic Conditions 40 Competing Explanations for the Nuclear Behavior in East Asia 47 Political Segmentation and Competition: Nuclear Debates 63 CHAPTER 3: Japan 71 Imperial Japan Era 75 Post-War or Pre-Fukushima Era 76 Post-Fukushima Era 100 Policy Implication: Nuclear Weapons Debate 117 Policy Implication: Nuclear Energy Debates 122 CHAPTER 4: South Korea 129 Post-World War II Era 134 The Third Republic of Korea to End of the Yushin System 141 Post-Yushin System and the Pre-Fukushima Era 152 Post-Fukushima Era 164 Policy Implication: Nuclear Weapons Debates 176 Policy Implication: Nuclear Energy Debates 187 CHAPTER 5: Taiwan 196 Period of Martial Law and Nuclear Program 199 Post Martial Law and the Pre-Fukushima Era 205 Post-Fukushima Era 208 Policy Implication: Nuclear Energy Debates 214 Policy Implication: Nuclear Weapons Debates 219 CHAPTER 6: Findings and Prospects 224 REFERENCES 241 iii LIST OF FIGURES Page Figure 1.1: Nuclear Energy Spectrum Prior to Fukushima 16 Figure 1.2: Nuclear Weapons Spectrum Prior to Fukushima 18 Figure 1.3: 2011 Pre-Fukushima Nuclear Energy and Weapons Spectrum 20 Figure 1.4: 2018 Post-Fukushima Nuclear Energy and Weapons Spectrum Expectation 21 Figure 1.5: Nuclear Policy Preference of Domestic Coalitions prior to the Fukushima Incident 22 Figure 1.6: Nuclear Decision-Making Process prior to Fukushima 23 Figure 2.1: Military Expenditure by Country in Northeast Asia 41 Figure 2.2: US Troop Levels in Japan and South Korea 1969-2016 43 Figure 2.3: Advancement of Civilian Nuclear Technology and Nuclear Orientation 56 Figure 3.1: The Nuclear Decision-Making Process of Japan Based on Three Phases 71 Figure 3.2: Japan‟s Pre-Fukushima Nuclear Energy and Weapons Spectrum 79 Figure 3.3: Japan‟s Participation in Nonproliferation Regimes and Activities 89 Figure 3.4: Nuclear Policy Preference of Domestic Coalition in Pre- and Post-Fukushima Era 102 Figure 3.5: How Should Japan Utilize Its Nuclear Power in the Future? 103 Figure 3.6: Japan‟s Post-Fukushima Nuclear Energy and Weapons Spectrum 104 Figure 3.7: Japan‟s Public Support for Nuclear Weapons 119 Figure 3.8: Could the Japanese Economy Grow Without Utilizing Nuclear Energy? 124 Figure 4.1: The Nuclear Decision-Making Process of South Korea Based on Three Phases 131 Figure 4.2: South Korea‟s Pre-Fukushima Nuclear Energy and Weapons Spectrum 141 Figure 4.3: South Korean Public Support for Nuclear Weapons 1996-2009 160 Figure 4.4: South Korea‟s Participation in Nonproliferation Regimes and Activities 163 Figure 4.5: Nuclear Policy Preference of Domestic Coalition in Pre- and Post-Fukushima Era 167 Figure 4.6: South Korea‟s Post-Fukushima Nuclear Energy and Weapons Spectrum 168 Figure 4.7 South Korean Public Support for Nuclear Weapons 1996-2017 179 iv Figure 5.1: The Nuclear Decision-Making Process of Taiwan Based on Three Phases 198 Figure 5.2: Taiwan Pre-Fukushima Nuclear Energy and Weapons Spectrum 201 Figure 5.3: Nuclear Policy Preference of Domestic Coalition in Pre- and Post-Fukushima Era 209 Figure 5.4: Taiwan‟s Post-Fukushima Nuclear Energy and Weapons Spectrum 211 Figure 6.1: Nuclear Policy Preference by Domestic Coalitions Post-Fukushima Incident 228 v LIST OF TABLES Page Table 1.1: Pre-Fukushima Nonproliferation and Proliferation Conditions 32 Table 1.2: Post-Fukushima Nonproliferation and Proliferation Conditions 33 vi LIST OF ACRONYMNS ANEC Anti-Nuclear Energy Coalition ANWC Anti-Nuclear Weapons Coalition CTBT Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty ENR Enrichment and Reprocessing HEU Highly Enriched Uranium IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency JST Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan KAERI Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute NNWS Non-Nuclear Weapons States NPT Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons PNEC Pro-Nuclear Energy Coalition PNWC Pro-Nuclear Weapons Coalition WMD Weapons of Mass Destruction Chapter 3 DPJ Democratic Party of Japan GHQ U.S. General Headquarters JCP Japan Communist Party JSP Japan Socialist Party LDP Liberal Democratic Party NRA Nuclear Regulation Authority TEPCO Tokyo Electric Power Chapter 4 AEC Atomic Energy Commission GNP Grand National Party KCIA Korean Central Intelligence Agency KEPCO Korea Electric Power Corporation KHNP Korea Hydro & Nuclear Power KNEF Korea Nuclear Energy Foundation MEST Ministry of Education Science and Technology MOTIE Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy NSSC Nuclear Safety and Security Commission ROK Republic of Korea SCNR Supreme Council for National Reconstruction WEC Weapons Exploitation Committee Chapter 5 AEC Atomic Energy Council DPP Democratic Progressive Party KMT Kuomintang PRC People‟s Republic of China ROC Republic of China TaiPower Taiwan Power Company INER Institute of Nuclear Energy Research vii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Undertaking this Ph.D. has been a truly life-changing experience for me and it would not have been possible without the support and guidance that I received from teachers, mentors, friends, and family. I would like to express my sincere gratitude to my advisor and mentor Professor Etel Solingen for the continuous support of my Ph.D. study and related research, for her patience, motivation, and immense knowledge. Her guidance helped me researching and writing of this dissertation. I could not have imagined having a better advisor and mentor for my Ph.D. study. Besides my advisor, I would like to thank the rest of my dissertation committee: Professor Caesar Sereseres and Professor Patrick M. Morgan, for their insightful comments and encouragements, but also for the hard questions which incited me to widen my research from various perspectives. I gratefully acknowledge the research funding received from the Fulbright Association to conduct field research in South Korea. I would like to thank Professor Sung-han Kim for his encouragement and supervisory role while I was conducting my research at Korea University. I am also grateful to the funding received from the Japan Foundation to conduct field research in Japan. I would like to thank Professor Yasuhiro Matsuda for his guidance and insightful comments while I was conducting my research at the University of Tokyo. I would like to thank all the interviewees during my field research in South Korea and Japan. Through hours of discussions and interviews, I gained immense knowledge and understanding of each country. I am deeply thankful to my family for their love, support, and sacrifices. Without them, this dissertation would never have been written. I would like to thank my parents, whose love and guidance are with me in whatever I pursue. Most importantly, I wish to thank my loving and supportive wife, Minjin Chung, and my two wonderful children, Tay Ha Lee and June Ha Lee, who provide unending inspiration. viii CURRICULUM VITAE Alex Chang Lee University of California, Irvine – Department of Political Science Education Ph.D. University of California, Irvine – Political Science, 2019 Research Fields: 1) International Relations, 2) Comparative Politics Dissertation: Nuclear Debates and Political Competition in Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan: Denuclearization or Nuclear Latency in the aftermath of Fukushima Committee: Etel Solingen (chair), Patrick M. Morgan, and Caesar Sereseres Korea University (Ilmin International Relations Institute), Seoul, South Korea – Fulbright Scholar, 2015-2016 University of Tokyo (Advance Asian Studies Institute), Tokyo, Japan – Japan Foundation Doctoral Fellow, 2016-2017 M.A. University of California, Irvine – Political Science, 2014 M.A. Korea University GSIS – International Security, 2010 B.A. Southern Methodist University – International Studies, 2005 Fellowships 1) Post-doctoral Stanton Nuclear Security Fellowship at MIT‟s Security Studies Program, 2019-2020 2) Post-doctoral Borg Fellowship at Weatherhead East Asian Institute at Columbia University, 2019-2020 (declined) Japanese Studies Doctoral Fellowship at Tokyo University (Japan Foundation), 2016-2017 2) Asia-Pacific Nuclear History (APNHI) Institute (Wilson Center) Fellowship, November 2016 3) Non-resident James Kelly Fellowship, Pacific Forum CSIS, 2016 4) Fulbright Research Fellowship, U.S. Department of State (IIE), 2015-2016 5) Center for Global Peace and Conflict Studies Graduate Student Affiliate Fellowship, 2014 6) Center of Democracy Study (CDS) Research Affiliate Fellowship, 2012 7) Walter F. Mondale Ambassador‟s Fellowship, 2003 Additional Training and Education 1) Asia-Pacific Nuclear History (APNHI) Institute (Wilson Center), Nov. 2016 2) Nonproliferation