7/30/2014 BREAKOUT SESSION Managing Wildfire Risk and Litigation AEGIS 2014 POLICYHOLDERS’ CONFERENCE MANAGING WILDFIRE RISK AND LITIGATION Mark Bluestein Vice President/Counsel AEGIS Claims AEGIS 2014 POLICYHOLDERS’ CONFERENCE 1 7/30/2014 CREATING WILDFIRE RESILIENCE THROUGH PREPAREDNESS Joe Vaccaro Electric Transmission & Distribution Project Management, Operations Manager San Diego Gas & Electric AEGIS 2014 POLICYHOLDERS’ CONFERENCE © 2012 San Diego Gas & Electric Company. All copyright and trademark rights reserved. Overview of SDG&E’s Service Territory • SDG&E supplies power to 1.4 million business/residential accounts in a 4,100 square-mile service area • SDG&E overhead facilities ~ 1,800 miles of electric transmission lines and 7,000 miles of electric distribution lines. • SDG&E has developed a Community Fire Safety Program that improves power line safety, increases reliability and helps our region’s overall emergency preparedness AEGIS 2014 POLICYHOLDERS’ CONFERENCE 2 7/30/2014 Overview of SDG&E’s Service Territory • SDG&E’s significant enhancements since 2007 Early and predictive weather information System design for both transmission and distribution systems Operational changes Supplemental inspection and maintenance practices Robust vegetation management program Support and reactive measures to aggressively pursue active fires • These changes have been made to improve safety and to reduce the potential for electric facilities to be an ignition source, and ongoing efforts will further reduce fire risk AEGIS 2014 POLICYHOLDERS’ CONFERENCE Identifying Risk: Increased Wildfire Activity The map below shows portions of San Diego 2003 (Cedar Fire) County that have burned since 2000, including the Cedar Fire and all major 2007 fires. • Acres burned: 280,278 • Electric facilities destroyed: 2,820 • Electric facilities damaged: 63 • Vehicles destroyed: 148 • Deaths: 14 • Injuries: 104 2007 (All Major Fires) • Acres burned: 368,566 • Electric facilities destroyed: 2,665 • Electric facilities damaged: 117 • Vehicles destroyed: 239 • Deaths: 7 • Injuries: 127 AEGIS 2014 6 POLICYHOLDERS’ CONFERENCE 3 7/30/2014 Fire Statistics – May 13-16, 2014 Fire Name/Size Location Start Date Circuits Affected Customers Affected Bernardo Fire: off Nighthawk Lane, southwest of Rancho Bernardo 5/13/14 11:00 AM None 1,548 acres Tomahawk Fire: Traveled from Naval Weapons Station, Fallbrook 5/14/14 09:45AM C300 919 customers 5,367 acres to Camp Pendleton Poinsettia Fire: off Poinsettia Ln & Alicante Rd in Carlsbad 5/14/14 10:30 AM C589 2836 customers 600 acres River Fire: North River Road and College Blvd., Oceanside 5/14/14 12:12 PM None 105 acres Highway Fire: off Old Hwy 395 and I-15 in the Deer 5/14/14 1:00 PM C239, C350, C233 1164 customers 380 acres Springs area Cocos Fire: Village Drive and Twin Oaks Road, San Marcos 5/14/14 04:00 PM C185, C182, C597 5114 customers 1,995 acres Sterling Fire: 12900 block of I-8 Glenview 5/14/14 4:59 PM C386 1609 customers 6 acres Freeway Fire: Naval Weapons Station, Fallbrook 5/14/14 05:43 PM None 56 acres Pulgas Fire: Off Interstate 5 at Las Pulgas Rd, north 5/15/14 04:45 PM None 15,000 acres of Oceanside San Mateo Fire: Talega area of Marine Corps Base Camp Pendleton 5/16/14 11:24 AM C204 1258 customers 1,500 acres AEGIS 2014 POLICYHOLDERS’ CONFERENCE Fire Potential: Conditions • There is a definite drought throughout the state • We expect fire season to begin earlier than normal, with an above average risk of large fires from about July through October • Santa Ana season is not expected to be significantly windier than normal this year • Live Fuel Moisture values currently falling across the area and should become critical by mid-summer • Dead/fine fuels (grasses and such) are cured (basically dead) up to about the 3,000’ elevation and mostly dead and dying up to 4500’ • There are indications of an “El Nino” which could bring significant rainfall during the upcoming fall and winter months AEGIS 2014 POLICYHOLDERS’ CONFERENCE 4 7/30/2014 Prevention Measures – In Summary • Pursuing a programmatic wood-to-steel replacement program • Developed the largest and most concentrated weather network of any utility. Provides 24/7 redundant 10min data stream. • Expanded QA/QC inspection and repair program covering all of FTZ • Utilizing LiDAR to survey transmission system. In 2014, seven transmission tie lines surveyed, representing 1360 poles that will be re-engineered to steel structures. • Installed and operate 198 of the latest technology for sectionalizing and safer reclosing (IntelliRupter “Pulse Closers”) AEGIS 2014 POLICYHOLDERS’ CONFERENCE Prevention Measures – In Summary • Installed and operate numerous SCADA capacitors in HRFA and continue to add newest technology wireless fault indicators • Aggressive vegetation management providing for the inventory, management and trimming of over 450,000 trees within proximity to overhead power lines • Modified and improved operating procedures (such as recloser policy for fire safety) • Created a web based communication tool to inform communication infrastructure providers of potential issues for correction AEGIS 2014 POLICYHOLDERS’ CONFERENCE 5 7/30/2014 Prevention – Added Expertise and Actions • Added four Fire Coordinators to examine and report on fires as they occur and provide meaningful insight as to conditions on a real time basis • Formed a Reliability Improvements Team (RiRAT) to focus on fire risk reduction improvements from an engineering analysis standpoint AEGIS 2014 POLICYHOLDERS’ CONFERENCE Prevention – Added Expertise and Actions • Hired two meteorologists to monitor and forecast all weather • Set up seasonal staging yards for faster response during high fire threat season • Using comprehensive analytics obtained through RIRAT activities, RIRAT and EDE worked together to develop a program (FiRM) that will address overload of poles together with conductor examination • In the FTZ, copper conductor will be replaced with aluminum, wood poles found to be inadequate will be replaced with steel AEGIS 2014 POLICYHOLDERS’ CONFERENCE 6 7/30/2014 Weather Network Enhancements • 149 weather stations • Reports every 10 minutes • Redundant communications • Supports forecasting capability • All data is made public • Additional weather stations have been strategically located in an effort to safely and reliably operate the electric system AEGIS 2014 POLICYHOLDERS’ CONFERENCE Conducted Cutting-Edge Fuels and Vegetation Science • Ground-breaking science was done to assess the vegetation across San Diego and southern Orange Counties with respect to its moisture content and susceptibility to wildfire • The next generation of fuels modeling is being developed and integrated into our products which includes surface observations, satellite input and high performance computing Nelson Dead Fuel Moisture Model Grass “Greenness” and Live Fuel Moisture 1-hr dead-fuel moisture 10-hr dead-fuel moisture 100-hr dead-fuel moisture 1000-hr dead-fuel moisture AEGIS 2014 Live Fuel Moisture POLICYHOLDERS’ CONFERENCE 7 7/30/2014 Pushing Forward the Science of Weather Prediction – Red Flag Warning Oct 4th-6th, 2013 AEGIS 2014 POLICYHOLDERS’ CONFERENCE Fire Potential Index (FPI) The Fire Potential Index is a planning and decision support tool designed to reduce the risk of a wildfire while improving efficiency and reliability • Incorporates weather, live fuel moisture, dead fuel moisture, and greenness of the annual grasses • Calculated at the district level • Issued 12:30 pm daily • Used to inform operational decisions, work restrictions, resource allocation AEGIS 2014 POLICYHOLDERS’ CONFERENCE 8 7/30/2014 Fire Potential Index (FPI) - Components Fire Potential = Weather + Fuels Weather Grasses Dead Fuel Live Fuel Model Output StatisticsNDVI Satellite Data WRF Model Fuel Sampling Program AEGIS 2014 POLICYHOLDERS’ CONFERENCE Fire Potential Index – as Backcasted Border #50 Fire Pines Fire Cedar FireSierra Fire Angel Fire Witch Fire 18 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 FPI AEGIS 2014 POLICYHOLDERS’ CONFERENCE 9 7/30/2014 Created the Fire Potential Awareness System AEGIS 2014 POLICYHOLDERS’ CONFERENCE Red Flag Warning: Oct. 4th-6th, 2013 • 09/26/2013 (8 days prior) – SDG&E Meteorologists provide advanced notice of Santa Ana winds for October 4-6, 2013. • 09/30/2013 (4 days prior) – SDG&E Meteorologists forecast an “extreme” fire potential and mention the possibility of a Red Flag Warning. • 10/01/2013 (2 days prior) – The National Weather Service issues Fire Weather Watch • 10/03/2013 (1 days prior) – The National Weather Service issues Red Flag Warning Below are the circuits and weather stations that are forecasted to exceed 56 mph: Weather Station EDO Forecast NWS Forecast Actual Gust EDO Error NWS Error Sill Hill 68 mph 43 mph 70 mph -2 mph -27 mph Boulder Creek 57 mph 40 mph 58 mph -1 mph -18 mph Below are the circuits and weather stations that are forecasted to exceed 50 mph: Weather Station EDO Forecast NWS Forecast Actual Gust EDO Error NWS Error Buckman Springs 56 mph 34 mph 56 mph 0 mph -22 mph Crestwood 54 mph 39 mph 53 mph +1 mph -14 mph Dye Mountain 54 mph 41 mph 50 mph +4 mph -9 mph Hellhole Canyon 54 mph 32 mph 59 mph -5 mph -27 mph EDO Meteorology Average Error: 3.2 mph NWS San Diego Average Error: 16.8 mph AEGIS 2014 POLICYHOLDERS’ CONFERENCE 10 7/30/2014 Santa Ana Wildfire Threat Index (SAWTi) Released to Test Group Our Mission: Develop a tool to mitigate risks associated with extreme fire potential during Santa Ana Winds. Our Vision: To provide a decision support