February 5, 2018 Industry Brief Chris Quilty [email protected] January 2018 +1 (727)-828-7085 Austin Moeller Satellite & Space Monthly Review [email protected] +1 (727)-828-7601 January 11, 2018: Air force to utilize more smallsats for weather DMSP F19 Readying for Launch observation. Citing growing budget constraints, the US Air Force announced that is considering using small satellites in combination with next-gen software rather than procuring traditional multibillion-dollar, cost-plus spacecraft to replace/replenish its Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP). Despite awarding a $94 million contract to Ball Aerospace in November to design the Weather System Follow-on Microwave (WSF-M) satellite, the Air Force plans to begin launching small satellites equipped with infrared imaging and electro-optical instruments to monitor battlefield weather starting in 2021-2022. The Air Force is also considering augmenting their current capabilities with inactive NOAA GOES satellites in the near-term. These considerations parallel recent comments by USSTRATCOM commander Gen. John Hyten, who has repeatedly stated that the Air Force currently spends too much time and money developing large, high- cost satellites, and needs to invest in more small satellites for strategic Source: Lockheed Martin and budgetary reasons. Conclusion: Smallsats ready for a DoD growth spurt? With growing evidence of Russian/Chinese anti- satellite technology demonstrations, the Pentagon is becoming increasingly reluctant to spend billions of dollars on monolithic “Battlestar Galactica” satellite systems that place too many eggs in one basket. While not as robust or technologically-capable as high-end spacecraft built by traditional contractor, such as Lockheed Martin, small satellites are orders-of-magnitude less expensive to build, launch, and maintain. And, for a Defense Department looking to bring cost savings and efficiency to its notoriously costly and labyrinthine procurement system, smallsts represent a legitimate opportunity to bend the cost curve. Early efforts to advance smallsat technology, such as the Operationally Responsive Space (ORS) office (formed in 2007) were consistently undermined by the Air Forces, which repeatedly tried to de-fund the office. More recently, however, the DoD has been expanding its smallsat efforts with programs such as the Strategic Capabilities Office (SCO) and the Defense Innovation Unit Experimental (DIUx). Likewise, the industry has taken note of this trend, as evidenced by recent product development and M&A efforts, including: • Boeing’s launch of a dedicated Phantom Phoenix smallsat product line • SS/L’s contract to manufacture XX Skysat satellites for Skybox Imaging February 5, 2018 Industry Brief • General Atomic’s acquisition of smallsat manufacturer Miltec, along with the US assets of SSTL • Thales Alenia Space’s partnership with Sitael on the development of a 200 kg smallsat bus • Lockheed Martin’s investment in smallsat manufacturer Terran Orbital and announcement that it intends to spend $300 million to develop a new family of satellite buses • Harris’ recent win of a classified “pathfinder” smallsat program that is expected to ramp to >$100 million over next two years The expeditious pace of cubesat, nanosat, and other small satellite launches has accelerated noticeably in recent years and could see an enormous boost if the Pentagon shifts towards the adoption of swarms of smallsats to provide a more economical means of gathering communications, remote sensing, weather and intelligence data. Annual increase in nanosatellite launches (includes cubesats). Source: Nanosats.eu January 17, 2018: Effective Space signs its first satellite Artist’s Rendition of Effective Space’s “Space Drone extension contract. Adding further evidence that the nascent satellite servicing market is not a flash in the pan, Effective Space Systems (ESS) announced on January 17th that it had signed its first contract for satellite servicing operations using two of its Space Drone mission extension Moon Express MX-1 Lander vehicles. The $100 million contract, signed by an as-of-yet undisclosed customer, will have the company’s Space Drones dock with two currently on-orbit satellites, providing attitude control and station-keeping functionality to extend their operating life over a period of several years. The launch has been scheduled for 2020. ESS’ announcement is especially topical considering that Source: Effective Space Systtems Orbital-ATK, which is also developing its own GeoStar- Source: Moon Express. February 5, 2018 Industry Brief based Mission Extension Vehicle (MEV), announced on Artist’s Rendition of Orbital ATK’s MEV-1 January 4th that it had received a second order from its client, Intelsat, for a satellite servicing mission in mid-2020. Their first MEV launch is scheduled for early 2019. The quickly-emerging field of satellite servicing is also being targeted by Space Systems Loral (SS/L), which is developing its Robotic Servicing Vehicle (RESTORE-L) for NASA and Robotic Servicing of Geosynchronous Satellites (RSGS) for DARPA. Restore-L, which is intended to refuel a LEO satellite, is scheduled to launch in 2020, while RSGS is currently on the docket for 2021. Likewise, in June 2017 SS/L signed a servicing contract with commercial operator Source: Orbital ATK. SES for a planned 2021 mission. Also on the horizon, Airbus announced in September 2017 that it is developing the “Airbus Space Tug” (possibly in collaboration with the Russian company RSS Energia) and Daytona Beach, Florida-based Weintraus is developing the Hercules servicing vehicle with a planned initial mission in 2022. Conclusion: Satellite servicing industry poised to flourish? With the official entry of Effective Space into the market, it appears that the establishment of the satellite servicing industry as a viable, burgeoning 2020s business model is now all but inevitable. Effective Space’s $100 million-dollar contract demonstrates that significant demand exists among industry-wide satellite operators for the prospect of squeezing extra years out of otherwise perfectly functional satellites. In the case of the Space Drone, a $50 million price tag to restore an existing spacecraft far outweighs the $250-500 million cost to construct and launch an entirely new satellite. But wait! Aren’t high throughput satellites (HTS) going to obsolete much of the current on-orbit capacity? In the long term, probably yes, but there are at least two uses cases where life extension services make imminent sense today: • Video services, which by-and-large are not impacted by HTS technology • Regional services, where the cost/complexity of upgrading to an HTS architecture cannot be justified based on current business/revenue model. Over the next 5-10 years, we may yet see the development of new and innovative LEO business models (ranging from asteroid mining to space tourism), but for the time being satellite servicing has emerged as the one service that has earned unmistakable buy-in from the established industry. As the next wave of satellite operators consider satellite servicing missions, we expect three major criteria to weigh on their source selection: • Overall mission cost • Capabilities provided by the servicing vehicle • Duration of life extension services February 5, 2018 Industry Brief Comparison of Leading Satellite Servicing Vehicles Manufacturer Effective Space Orbital ATK SSL Nomenclature SPACE DRONE MEV RSV Platform Custom GEOStar SSL-1300 Mass 400 kg 2041 kg ~ 5000+ kg Propulsion Electric Electric, chemical Electric, chemical Bus Power UNK 8 kW UNK Launch Secondary Secondary Primary Customers Undisclosed Intelsat DARPA, SES Spacecraft Life 15 years 15+ years 15+ years Hosted Payloads No Yes Yes Refueling No No Yes Station-keeping Yes Yes Yes Repair No No Yes Assembly/augmentation No No Yes Inspection/Imagery No Yes Yes NOAA License? No Yes UNK First Mission 2020 NET 2019 2021 (DARPA) Satellite Compatibility > 90% of total in orbit 80% of total in orbit 100% of total in orbit Source: Company reports and Quilty Analytics. Pricing: In the battle over cost, Effective Space has a clear advantage, with its Space Drone’s 400 kg launch mass and comparatively small size enabling flights of multiple vehicles on one rocket, as well as significant versatility in available launch vehicles to carry it. Effective Space has also touted their vehicle’s ability to fly as a secondary payload. Orbital’s MEV also takes economies of scale into account, with its instruments mounted on one side to allow it to be stacked within an Ariane 5 payload fairing with other GeoStar-3 satellites (how convenient). SS/L’s RSV, derived from an SSL-1300 bus, falls short in this category, with an estimated mass of at least 5,000 kg. Features: Capabilities of the servicing vehicles vary based on customer requirements, but the most in- demand services are refueling/station-keeping, inspection and repair, and orbital repositioning. While SS/L specifically provides satellite refueling, the MEV and Space Drone instead attach themselves to the satellites, using their own propulsion systems to maintain the satellite’s position by functioning as a “jetpack.” Inspection and repair: Currently, only SS/L’s RSVs have this capability, having developed advanced optics and dexterous robotic arms for their vehicles per DARPA and NASA mission requirements. Imaging systems generally require a NOAA license, which Effective Space has not obtained, though Orbital-ATK, through its subsidiary