IDEAS, BELIEFS, STRATEGIC CULTURE, AND FOREIGN POLICY: UNDERSTANDING BRAZIL’S GEOPOLITICAL THOUGHT by MARCOS DEGAUT M.A. Universidade de Brasília, 1999 B.A. Centro Universitário do Distrito Federal, 2005 B.A. Centro Universitário de Brasília, 1992 A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in the Department of Political Science in the College of Sciences at the University of Central Florida Orlando, Florida Summer Term 2016 Major Professor: Roger Handberg © 2016 Marcos Degaut ii ABSTRACT Brazil is an important player both at regional and global levels, figuring prominently in almost all lists of emerging states and regional powers. It is one of the world's largest democracies, the fifth most populous country in the world, the world's seventh-largest economy, and Latin America's largest economy, accounting for approximately 60% of South America's GDP, 47% of South America's territory and 49% of South American population, a G20 member, and an active contributor to United Nations peacekeeping operations. However, despite being usually depicted as a "monster country" which would help shape global affairs, Brazil has never been able to match its geographic, territorial and demographic assets with global geostrategic clout, and military, political, and economic power. This research seeks to explain how a rising power such as Brazil has historically behaved, reacted and constructed a discourse that, at the same time, constrains/motivates its decisions, explains its actions, and legitimizes its behavior. More specifically, the puzzle to be solved is why Brazilian regional policies are not more assertive given Brazil’s capabilities? In order to answer this puzzle, this research will seek to analyze how a strategic culture influences a country’s geopolitical thought, and consequently its policy choices and outcomes; to identify and qualify the elements of Brazilian strategic culture and its nature, as well as determine the relationship between these elements and Brazilian foreign and security policy decisions; to analyze the influence of Brazilian strategic culture features upon the country's geopolitical thought and grand strategy, and Brazil’s geopolitics to South America; and finally to discuss the question of the dynamics of strategic cultural change in Brazil and its implications for the iii country’s security and foreign policy decision-making process, as well as for its regional neighborhood. iv This dissertation is dedicated to my wife, Andressa, and my sons, Arthur and Nicholas, for their endless love, unconditional support, and unfaltering encouragement. v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS First and foremost, I have to thank my wife and sons for their support, without which I would not have the necessary strength and peace of mind to proceed in this arduous journey and pursue my dreams. I would also like to sincerely thank my supervisor and Chair of the Dissertation Committee, Dr. Roger Handberg, for his inspirational instruction and invaluable guidance throughout this process and, specially, for his confidence in me and friendship. Likewise, I would like to thank Dr. Michael Mousseau, Dr. Nikola Mirilovic, and Dr. George Felipe de Lima Dantas for serving in my Dissertation committee. Their precious comments, insights, questions, and attention were of essence for the completion of this study. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................ xi ABBREVIATIONS/ACRONYMS ............................................................................. xiii INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................... 1 1. Background and Context: The Strategic Culture Approach and Alternative Explanations 5 2. Brazil and the Strategic Culture Framework ..................................................................... 11 3. The Predictive Power of the Strategic Culture Approach ................................................. 15 CHAPTER 1 - LITERATURE REVIEW .....................................................................21 1.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 21 1.2 The First Generation – Ambiguous Definitions .............................................................. 23 1.3 The Second Generation – Speech and Action ................................................................. 26 1.4 The Third Generation – Strategic Culture as an Intervening Variable ............................ 29 1.5 The Emergence of a Fourth Generation? ......................................................................... 33 1.6 The United States’ Strategic Culture ............................................................................... 35 1.7 Russia’s Strategic Culture ................................................................................................ 39 CHAPTER 2 - BRAZIL’S FOREIGN POLICY HISTORY ........................................44 2.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 44 2.2 Colonial Times ................................................................................................................. 45 2.2.1 The Royal Family in Brazil ................................................................................... 50 2.3 The Brazilian Empire ....................................................................................................... 53 2.4 The Republican Era: The First Republic (1889-1930) .................................................... 57 2.4.1 New Foreign Policy Priorities ............................................................................... 58 2.4.2 The World War I ................................................................................................... 65 2.5 The Vargas Era ................................................................................................................ 68 2.6 The Second Republic (1945-1964) .................................................................................. 74 2.6.1 The Post-Vargas Period (1954-1964) .................................................................... 78 2.7 The Military Dictatorship (1964-1985) ........................................................................... 85 2.7.1 – The Responsible Pragmatism ............................................................................. 88 vii 2.8 The “New Republic” (1985-Present) ............................................................................... 91 2.8.1 The Foreign Policies of Fernando Collor de Mello and Itamar Franco ................ 93 2.8.2 The Foreign Policies of Fernando Henrique Cardoso and Luís Inácio Lula da Silva ........................................................................................................................................ 97 CHAPTER 3 - BRAZILIAN STRATEGIC CULTURE ............................................104 3.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 104 3.2 The Roots of Brazilian Strategic Culture ....................................................................... 107 3.2.1 Rio Branco’s Legacy ........................................................................................... 118 3.3 The Keepers of Brazilian Strategic Culture ................................................................... 122 3.3.1 The Military Establishment ................................................................................. 123 3.3.2 The Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Itamaraty) ....................................................... 130 3.4 Qualitative Interviews – Results and Findings .............................................................. 134 3.4.1 The Interviews ..................................................................................................... 138 3.5 Conclusions.................................................................................................................... 161 CHAPTER 4 – STRATEGIC CULTURE AND COMPETING APPROACHES: EXPLAINING BRAZILIAN STRATEGIC BEHAVIOR .........................................162 4.1. Introduction ................................................................................................................... 162 4.2 Realist and Neorealist Theories ..................................................................................... 163 4.3 Offensive Realism ......................................................................................................... 167 4.3.1 Brazil’s Renunciation of Nuclear Weapons ........................................................ 168 4.4 Neoliberal Institutionalism ............................................................................................ 173 4.4.1 Brazil and the League of Nations ........................................................................ 180 4.4.2 Brazil and the Non-Proliferation Treaty .............................................................. 184 4.5 Rational Choice Institutionalism ................................................................................... 188 CHAPTER 5 GEOPOLITICS AND GRAND STRATEGY ......................................192 5.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................