THE FUTURE OF LAST-MILE DELIVERY: A SCENARIO THINKING APPROACH A thesis submitted in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Kolawole Samuel Ewedairo B.Sc. (Hons) Geography and Regional Planning, OOU, Nigeria Master of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Ibadan, Nigeria School of Business IT and Logistics College of Business RMIT University June 2019 DECLARATION I certify that except where due acknowledgement has been made, the work is that of the author alone; the work has not been submitted previously, in whole or in part, to qualify for any other academic award; the content of the project is the result of work which has been carried out since the official commencement date of the approved research program; any editorial work, paid or unpaid, carried out by a third party is acknowledged; and, ethics procedures and guidelines have been followed. I acknowledge the support I have received for my research through the provision of an Australian Government Research Training Program Scholarship. Kolawole Ewedairo June 2019 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS To God who is the same yesterday, today and forever be the glory, honour and adoration. First and foremost, my deepest appreciation goes to my senior supervisor, Professor Prem Chhetri. You are mentor, a friend and a brother. No words of gratitude would suffice for the precious guidance, continuous support, and attention to detail, motivation, inspiration, and patience that you provided throughout this PhD journey. I thank God for your life and that of your entire family. May God indeed bless you and keep you and your family. I would also like to express my appreciation to my associate supervisor Professor Jago Dodson for his support. You are a great scholar indeed. To Professor Lee Taewoo and Associate Professor Ferry Jie thank you for your contribution to the success of this journey. God still answers prayers. Professor Shams Rahman your contribution to the success of this journey is appreciated. I would also like to thank Professor Caroline Chan, former Head of School, School of Business IT & Logistics at RMIT, for her generous support. Similarly, gratitude is due to Associate Professor Victor Gekara, Dr Huhammad Abdulrahman, and Dr Sharoooz, for your support. To all other academics and friends in BITL, I say a big thank you for your support and encouragement. Thank you all. To my wife Oluwafunmilayo, my children Oluwapamilerin, Oluwasemiloore and Oluwatemilorun, thank you for the encouragement to commence the journey as well as your understanding and support during the journey. Hi fives to each one of you, we have made it. To Muyiwa and Mosun Agunbiade, word is not enough to show my appreciation. Thank you to Anjali, Anya and Eveny for allowing me to be a part of your family where I belong forever. Professors Kayode Oyesiku and Dele Badejo, Kayode and Bola Adeyemi, Tunde and Molayo Adedotun, Laoye and Femi Sopade, Gbenga and Bola Tokun, Dare and Tokunbo Ogunmola, thank you all for your supports and prayers. Appreciation to Pastors Ibukun and Shalewa Williams, Pastors Samuel and Mary Olaniyan and the entire members of RCCG Jesus House Melbourne. I thank both Wuraola Ajoke and Olusola Ewedairo, I will never forget their sacrifice. Continue to rest in the peace. Your effort has been crowned with the success of this journey. ii To all who space will not allow me to mention here, thank you for your support. I will ever be grateful to all of you. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION ........................................................................................................................ i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ....................................................................................................... ii TABLE OF CONTENTS .......................................................................................................... iv LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................................... ix LIST OF FIGURES .................................................................................................................... x LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ................................................................................................. xiv LIST OF PUBLICATIONS .................................................................................................... xvi ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................... xvii CHAPTER ONE ........................................................................................................................ 1 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Problem Statement ...................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Research Rationale ...................................................................................................... 5 1.3.1 Increased Population Growth and Growing Pressure on Cities ........................... 6 1.3.2 The Changing Built and Regulatory Environment under the Compact Cities Model ................................................................................................................... 9 1.3.3 A Mismatch between Consumer Demand for Goods and Transportation Infrastructure Supply ......................................................................................... 10 1.3.4 Changing Consumer Demand and Distribution Methods .................................. 11 1.4 Scope of Study .......................................................................................................... 16 1.5 Research Aim and Questions .................................................................................... 17 1.6 Research Methodology .............................................................................................. 17 1.6.1 Study Area ......................................................................................................... 17 1.6.2 Methods.............................................................................................................. 18 1.7 Thesis Structure ......................................................................................................... 19 1.8 Summary ................................................................................................................... 21 CHAPTER TWO ..................................................................................................................... 23 UNDERSTANDING LAST MILE DELIVERY IMPEDANCE ............................................ 23 2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 23 2.2 City Logistics ............................................................................................................ 23 2.2.1 Last Mile Delivery ............................................................................................. 25 2.2.2 Characteristics of Last Mile Logistics ............................................................... 27 2.3 Perspectives on Last Mile Delivery .......................................................................... 30 iv 2.3.1 Supply Chain Perspective .................................................................................. 30 2.3.2 Transaction Cost Perspective ............................................................................. 31 2.3.3 Spatial Perspective ............................................................................................. 33 2.3.4 Urban Planning Perspective ............................................................................... 34 2.4 Urban Form and Last Mile Logistics ........................................................................ 35 2.5 Last Mile Delivery Impedance .................................................................................. 40 2.6 Summary ................................................................................................................... 41 CHAPTER THREE ................................................................................................................. 43 CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK FOR BUILDING THE FUTURE OF LAST MILE DELIVERY.............................................................................................................................. 43 3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 43 3.2 A Theoretical Framework for Building LMD Scenarios .......................................... 43 3.3 Theory of Constraints (TOC) .................................................................................... 47 3.3.1 The First Principle: The Logistics Paradigm ..................................................... 47 3.3.2 The Second Principle: The Thinking Process (TP)............................................ 49 3.4 Scenario Thinking Method ........................................................................................ 51 3.4.1 Scenario Thinking - Schools of Thought ........................................................... 53 3.4.2 Methods and Techniques to Building Scenarios ................................................ 54 3.4.3 Time Horizon in Scenario Thinking .................................................................