A SYSTEMS ANALYSIS OF SPACE INDUSTRIALIZATION by David L. Akin S. B., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (1974) S. M., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (1975) Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Science in Aerospace Systems at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology August, 1981 @ Massachusetts Institute of Technology Signature of Author Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics July 31, 1981 Certified by Rene H. Miller Thesis Supervisor Certified by Richard Battin Thesis Supervisor Certified by Jack L. Kerrebrock Thesis Supervisor Certified by James W. Mar Thesis Supervisor Accepted by Harold Y. Wachman C&Lirman, Department Doctoral Committee ArCAWNM MASSACHUSETTS INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY FEB 2 5 1982 UBRAUES 1 PAGE 2 A SYSTEMS ANALYSIS OF SPACE INDUSTRIALIZATION by David L. Akin Submitted to the Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics on July 31, 1981 in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of - Doctor of Science in the field of Aerospace Systems ABSTRACT Space industrialization is defined as the use of nonterrestri- al resources to support industrial activities which produce a net return on investment. The particular area of interest in this study is the use of the moon as a source of raw materials for production processes in space. Systems analysis is defined as the group of analysis techniques used to calculate both the technical feasibility and the economic viability of a candi- date system or process. Following a review of past research in space industrialization, a discussion of likely products for near-term space industrial capabilities is presented. Candi- date locations in the Earth-Moon systems are presented, and nine possible locations are selected for inclusion in this study. Velocity increments between orbital locations are found, including the estimation of plane change requirements, and an analysis of the effect of nonimpulsive and continual thrusting trajectories on AV requirements is made. A multicon- ic technique is used for accurate trajectory analysis between the earth and the moon, and for flights to libration points. With all locations specified, individual system analyses are performed to optimally size transportation vehicles. Earth launch vehicles are parametrically analyzed for the cases of one and two stages to orbit, with internal reusable and external expendable propellant tanks. The production system is defined, and broken down into component processes of mining, refining, manufacturing, and assembly. Estimates of signif- icant parameters are made for each step. Costing algorithms are derived, and costing performed on inte- grated production systems. Candidate production scenarios, comprising the most cost-effective alternatives for a total program systems identified in earlier sections, are collected for later optimization. PAGE 3 One of the primary contributions of this work is the develop- ment of a new operations research technique, which can be used to solve a variant of the "knapsack" problem without resorting to classical integer programming. The problem addressed is one of optimal investment: with limited resources, optimize the distribution of resources among a set of competing systems over a length of time so as to maximize the net return over the life- time of the program. The new solution technique, diagonal ascent linear programming (DALP), is derived and shown to produce a heuristic optimum for a sample problem of solar power satellite production. The technique is applicable to problems of competing systems which can be categorized by recurring and nonrecurring costs and returns: the returns may be either lump sum or recurring. The product of the analysis is a heuristic optimum solution for best investment of a resource in a year-by-year manner over recurring and nonrecurring costs of each system, in order to maximize the net return of the entire production scenario over its operational lifetime. Systems will be funded only if they contribute favorably to the return on investment, and multiple systems will be phased by finding the initial operational dates for each system which will maxi- mize the value of the objective function. Examples use cost criteria as the objective function: net present value func- tions are included in the analysis procedure for these cases. The DALP analysis technique is used to find near-optimal stategies for competing solar power satellite production schemes; to find the best choice of vehicle configuration for a space shuttle based on the information available to NASA when the decision was made in 1973; and to optimize the selection of upper stages to use with the current Space Transportation Sys- tem. In addition, further refinements of the solution algorithm are described which take into account such higher-order effects as commonality between competing systems and learning curve effects on recurring costs. Conclusions are drawn on the original question of nonterrestrial materials utilization, and on the use and applications of the diagonal ascent linear programming technique derived in order to ana- lyze the original problem. Thesis Supervisor: Rene H. Miller Slater Professor of Flight Transportation Thesis Supervisor: Richard H. Battin Adjunct Professor of Aeronautics and Astronautics Thesis Supervisor: Jack L. Kerrebrock MacLaurin Professor in Aeronautics and Astronautics Thesis Supervisor: James W. Mar Hunsaker Professor of Aerospace Education ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS It is not possible to spend ten years at one place, six of them working on (or at) a doctoral thesis, without being indebted to a large number of people. Were I to recount all the friendships along the way, I would have to have to have a separate volume for the acknowledgements: so, I would like to thank all my friends en masse, apologize to those I overlook here, and spe- cifically acknowledge those without whom the past years would not have been possible. First of all, I would like to thank all those who have served on my thesis committee since its inception. If any one single per- son could be said to be responsible (in the best possible sense) for this thesis, it would have to be Prof. Rene H. Miller, who was willing to extend a research assistantship to a new doctoral student interested in designing space stations instead of MX guidance systems. His support, counseling, guid- ance, and friendship over the years has made this work possible. Prof. Jack L. Kerrebrock always made sure my academ- ic progress was adequate, and deserves credit as well for being the only other member of my committee (besides Prof. Miller) who endured from the beginning to the end of this effort. I would like to thank Prof. John McCarthy, who saw to it that I eventually learned the first law of thermodynamics, Prof. Richard Battin, orbital mechanics mentor extraordinaire, and Prof. James Mar, who was nice enough not to ask a question at my general exams. I am also in debt to Dr. Phil Chapman, for several interesting conversations which helped to frame the initial direction of this thesis. I would especially like to thank Prof. Amedeo Odoni, who provided invaluable assistance on the operations research chapter. I would like to acknowledge the memory of two friends who did not live to see this thesis completed. Dr. Ted Edelbaum was one of the original members of my thesis committee, and largely responsible for the orbital mechanics section of this work. And Fred Merlis, technical instructor, whose highest title was that of friend. There have been many people along the way who, while not directly involved with this thesis, have meant a great deal to my ability to stay sane and finish this work, and I would like to thanks them all briefly. If the first place on a list is a place of honor, then that position would have to go to Mr. Al Shaw, who kept me from slicing my fingers off on the milling machine as a freshman, and who has been instructor, confidant, and friend ever since. I would like to thank David B. S. Smith, who bet me that I could not work the word "brontosaurus" into my thesis (you just lost, Dave!), for the use of his Apple comput- er, on which a large portion of the orbital mechanics was PAGE 5 programmed. I want to acknowledge and thank all of the members, past and present, of the Lab of Orbital Productivity, (better known as the Loonie Loopies), without whom this thesis would have been completed three years ago. I am especially indebted to Dave Mohr, who helped me through the ordeal of a doctoral language exam. I apologize to all of you for being such a grouch over the last six months while finishing this thesis. Acknowledgements are due to the authors from whom I borrowed the quotes at the beginning of each chapter: Konstantin Tsiolkowsky, George Lucas, Arthur C. Clarke, Walter Lippmann, and especially Carey Rockwell, whose Tom Corbett, Space Cadet books were responsible for awakening my interest in space at the age of five. I would especially like to thank my adopted second family, the Bowdens, for their support over the last few years. Stella, Becky, and, of course, my clone Marc (Margaret) kept me sup- plied with cookies and good cheer over the course of writing this thesis, and are the best sisters that anyone never had. Finally, there are three people for whom no verbal or written words are sufficient to express my thanks and admiration. They have made me who and what I am, and in a small measure of repay- ment, I would like to dedicate this thesis to my Mother and Father, June and Thomas Earl Akin, and to Mary Bowden, for their help, support, and love. *1 PAGE 6 CONTENTS 1.0 Introduction............ ... ............. 9 1.1 A Brief Overview ..... ........ ..... 12 1.2 Thesis Preview .. ..... .. ............... 24 2.0 Flight Mechanics . .. .. .. .. .. ... .... 27 2.1 Introduction .......... .................. .... 27 2.2 Two-Body Analysis ...