THE UNIVERSITY OF MANITOBA DOI,lNTOl,lN VS SUBURBAN SHOPPlNG CENTRES: MIASURING THE SHIFT OF l{INNIPTG.S RETA]L FUNCTION by ARCH HAROLD HONIGMAN A THESIS SUBMITTED TO THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES IN PARTIAL FULFILLI"IINT OF THE REQUIREI'4ENTS FOR THE DEGRTE 0F MASTERS OF CITY PLANNING DEPARTMENT OF CITY PLANNING l,,lINNIPEG, MANITOBA JANUARY, 1985 DOI{NTOWN VS SUBURBAN SHOPPING CENTREST MEASURING THE SHIFT OF I^¡INNIPEG I S RETAIL FUNCTION BY ARCH HAROLD HONICMAN A thesis submitted to the Faculty of Craduate Studies of the University of Manitoba in partial fulfillment of the requirenlents of the degree of MASTER OF CITY PLANNING o'11985 Permission has bee¡r grauted to the LIBRARY OF THE UN¡VER- SITY OF MANITOBA to lend or sell copies of this thesis. to the NATIONAL LIBRARY OF CANADA to microfìlnr this thesis and to lend or sell copies of the film, and UNMRS¡TY MTCROFILMS to publish an abstract of this thesis. The autho¡ reserves other publication rights, and neither the thesis nor extensive extracts from it may be printed or other- wisc reproduced w¡thout the author's written permission, This thesìs is dedicated to Joan Gordon, for the assistance and encouragenent you gave me during my studies at both the University of l^linnipeg and the University of Manitoba. Your contribution to my education will never be forgotten. ABSTRACT '' ';' ì i n' ': Q¿E¡,,IQ,te,iwr, ,,)h4,rl$"4 "'i,"1")'idê,'!,'(:'r"i":', ' "'r () '' .t-? l,,w,r , l, , " The purpose of this thesis is to assess and.evaluate the physicaì and econornic impact suburban shopping centre development has had on the retaìl sector of a city using a case study approach' The inquìry is comprised of a review of theories and models reìat- ingtoretailìocationandconsumerpatronage,areviewofexisting literature on the introduction of shopping centres, and the physical and economic impact shoppíng centres have had on both the central business district (c.B.D.) and the city overal 1. The case study examines the City of l,linnìpeg and the irnpact regional shopping centres have had on the C.B.D. of the citY. Thefìndingsofthisthesisshov.ithatnewsuburbanretailspace severely diluted businesses and did have a definite impact on the surrounding retail areas such as the downtown area' 0vera]],thisdocumentwi]lserveasabasisfordeveìopingan understanding of the mechanics of the retajl function lllithjn l^iinnipeg. Poljcy-makers, so enl ightened will be bett'er able to make responsibìe decisions, decisions based on a keener insight into the consequences of thei r acti ons. ll ACK O!IL EDGEMENTS The writing of this thesis had been a frustrating, yet rewarding experience. I am grateful to all those who have assisted in preparing thi s thesi s. I would especially like to thank Professor Basil Rotoff for hjs many hours of discussion on this topic, for his advice, and for exposing me to this valuable topìc. I woul d also like to acknowledge the assistance of Dr. Kent Gerecke and Professor Robert Lederman in their capacity as readers and in providing constructive criticism of the work. Lastly, but not least, I wish to express my deepest respect and thanks to my father and si ster for gì vi ng me thei r support, under- standing and patience whÍle writing thjs thesis. lrl TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT i ACK NOl,,lLEDGEMENTS ii TABLE OF CONTENTS iii LIST OF TABLES vi LIST OF FIGURES vi i i I NTRODUCTION I CHAPTER ONE: OVERVIEl,l OF SHOPPING AND RETAIL THEORIES o A. TNTRODUCTiON 9 B. RETAIL LOCATION THEORIES AND MODELS 9 C. CENTRAL PLACE THEORY 10 D. RETAIL GRAVITY MODELS 16 E. CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR THEORIES 22 F. ECONOMIC BASE THEORY AS RELATING TO RETAIL FUNCTION 25 G. ECONOMIC THEORY 26 H, FLOI^I THIORI ES 27 I. THE MARKET PRINCIPLE 28 J. RETAILING CONCEPTS 29 K. METHODS OF MEASURING AND RANKING TRADE AREAS 31 L. CONCLUSION ?2 CHAPTER Tl,{O: THE INTR0DUCTI0N 0F THt SHOPPING CENTRT 40 A. TNTRODUCTION 40 B. HISTORY AND BACKGROUND OF SHOPPING CENTRES 4t C. RETAIL INSTITUTIONAL CHANGES AND SHOPPING CENTRE DEVELOPMENT 42 1) Periodl-1850-1930 43 2) Period2 - 1930-1950 46 3) Period 3 - 1950 to the Present 47 D, CONSUMER INFLUENCES ON SHOPPING CENTRE DEVELOPMENT 49 E. MARKETING CHANGES AFFECTING SHOPPING CENTRI DEVELOPMENT 51 F. SHOPPING CENTRE DEVELOPMENT IN CANADA 53 G. DEFINITION AND FUNCTiON OF SHOPPING CENTRIS ÃÃ 1) Nei ghborhood Shopping Centre 56 2) Conmuni ty Shopping Centre Ão 3) Regi onal Shopping Centre 5B H. EXTENSION TO THE TRADITIONAL CLASSIFICATION 60 I. THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS OF SHOPPING CENTRTS 64 J. THE ECONOMIC BASE OF SHOPPING CTNTRES 7L K. IIvIPACT 0F SH0PPING CENTRE DEVELOPMENT 76 L. CONCLUSION 91 1V TABLT 0F CoNTENTS (continued) Page CHAPTER THREE: THE CHR0N0L0GiCAL HISTORY 0F RETAIL DEVELOPMENT IN l,lINNIPEG 100 I NTROD UCTION 100 Þ I,ÙINNIPEG'S EARLY RETAIL DEVELOPMENT 100 I^IINNIPEG,S RETAIL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE 1900's 108 D. l,lINNIPEG,S RETAIL DEVELOPI'IENT DURING THE POST-I^IORLD l,lAR II YTARS IL2 c CONCLUS ION t23 CHAPTER FOUR: A CASE STUDY: INVISTIGATION OF DOÌ,INTOI,JN AND REGIONAL SHOPPING CENTRE RETAILING IN I,IINNIPEG tz7 A. INÏRODUCTION t27 B. STUDY AREA AND MITHODOLOGY 128 C, NATIONAL RETAIL OVERViEl,l (1974-1982) 131 D. l^lINN]PEG RITAIL ANALYSIS 138 1) Demographi c Tre n ds 138 2) Downtown Resi denti al Characteristics 140 3) Retai I Trade Performance 142 4) Shift - Share Analysis 148 5) Downtown Retai I Sales 150 E. RTTAIL SPATiAL STRUCTURE 1Ã2 F. Ol,llNERSHIP 162 G. A MODEL OF MARKET POTENTIAL 165 H. ll1]CRO-ANALYSIS OF DOHNTOI,,IN RETAIL TRADE 1971-1983 176 1) An 0verview of Downtown Retail Activity fi6 2) Locational Shifts in Downtown Retaiì Activity 184 3) Retail Structure of the Downtown Key Retai ì Areas 187 I. CONCLUSION 190 CHAPTER FIVE: PAST AND CURRENT RETAIL PROPOSALS FOR THE CITY OF WINNIPEG 196 A. INTRODUCTION 196 B. DECISION MAKING PROCESS OF l,llNNIPEG'S PAST REGIONAL SHOPPING CENTRE PROPOSALS: CASE STUDY ANALYSIS OF UNICITY SHOPPTNG CENTRE 196 C. THE PLANNERS ROLE IN THE DECISION MAKING PROCESS 200 D. APPARENT RETAIL TRENDS IN l,llNNIPEG 203 E. NEl^l RETAIL PROPOSALS 208 F. IN SEARCH OF NEl,l PLANNING ACTIONS 209 G. CONCLUSION 214 TABLT 0F CONTENTS (continued) Page CHAPTER SIX: SUMMARY 220 A. PURPOSE OF THESIS 220 B. OVERVIEI.¡ OF SHOPPING AND RETAIL THEORIES 270 C. THE INTRODUCTION OF THE SHOPPING CENTRE 221 D. THE CHRONOLOGICAL HISTORY OF RETAIL OEVELOPMENT IN I^lINÑIPEG 222 E. INVESTIGATION OF DOI,¡NTOI,IN AND REGIONAL SHOPPING CENTRE RETAILING IN l,liNNIPEG 223 F. C0NCLUSioNS 224 G. POLITICAL DECISIONS ON RETAIL PROPOSALS ¿¿ó H. RECOMMENDATIONS 229 232 B TBL I OGRAPHY 240 APPEND ICES vi LIST OF TABLES TABL E Page 2.1 Shopping Centre Development in Canada 1950-1980 54 El 2,2 Shopp ing Centre Definitional Criteria 2.3 An Extended Classification of Shopping Centres 61 2.4 Checklist of AlI Purpose Site Investigation 65 2.5 Checklist of Land for Shopping Centre 68 2,6 Rent Levels - Canadian Regional Shopping Centres 74 2.7 l,li nni peg Shopping Centre 0wnership, Traffic and Sales Estimates 81 2.8 Change Shopper Goods Sales, U.S. Totaì and Regional Mall Shares L967-t979 B5 2.9 Estimated Matl and Total Shoppen Goods Sales in 16 States 1967-1977 B6 2.L0 Change in Total and Ma1 I Shopper Goods Sales 1967-1979 87 2,tt Number and Slze of Regional Shopping Malìs g7 2.1? Ratio of Largest Downtown Shopping Centre to Largest Suburban Shopping Centre Selectéd Metropolitan Areas in Canada for 1983 89 3.1 City of l,linnipeg Shoppìng Centre Inventory - 1982 1i6 3,2 l,linnipeg's Shopping Centres by Year of Construction 118 22 }li nni peg' s Shoppi ng Centres by Cormuni ty Conmi ttee Area t22 4.1 Comparison of Population and Retail Sales 1974-82 134 4.2 Comparison of Retail Sales, Maior Cities, L97 4-1982 135 4.3 Comparative Structure of Retail Sectors of Major Canadian CitÍes, L974-1982 137 4.4 Comparison of l,linnìpeg's Population, Income, 139 and Retail Sales, 1951-1981 vi i LIST OF TABLES TABLE Page 4,5 Selected Characteristics of l,linnipeg's Downtown 141 4.6 Ninnipeg Retaìl Sales, 1951-1981 t44 4.7 Retail Sales, By Type of Business, I,linnipeg, t974-1982 145 4.8 Real Change in Retail Sales By Type of Retai l Business 146 4.9 structure of Retail Trade in l'linnipeg By Sales, t97 4-82 L47 4.10 Shift Shure Analysìs, l,linnipeg Retaì l Sales, 1974'82 149 4.11 Retail 0utlets and Sales in The Dovrntov{n 151 4.12 |linnipeg C.B.D. Retail Square Footage 155 4.13 l,linnipeg C.B.D. Retail Structure By Leasable Fl oorspace Square Footage 156 4.14 l.lìnnipeg Regional Shoppìng Centres Retai I Squane Footage t57 4.15 l^linnipeg Regional Shopping Centre,Retail_ Structure By Leasable Floorspace Square F00tage 158 4. 16 Comoanison of National Chains and Locaì Independent Stoi^es in The C.B.D. and Shopping Centres 163 4.17 Expected Market Potenti al 167 4. 18 Expected Market Sal es Potential 168 4 .19 Shopping Centre Market Potential in 1971 169 4.20 Shopping Centre Market Potential in 1983 170 4.2t Downtown Key Retail Areas, 1971 178 4.22 DovJntovrn Key Retail Areas, 1983 L79 4.23 Shi fts in Downtown Retail, By Leasi ng Floorspace, 1971-1983 181 4.24 Retaìì Vacancy, 1971 and 1983 183 4.25 Locational Shifts ln Retail Stores 185 vl I l LIST OF FIGURES F IGURI Page 1,1 A Hierarchy According to Christaller's Market Principle (K-3 ) t2 L.2 The Three Smallest I'larket Area Sizes in Losch's Systen 13 2.1 Shoppjng Centre Development Process 67 2.2 City of t.linnipeg Act Section 600 (i) 72 3.1 Map of the Village of l,linnipeg in 1869 102 3.2 Map of l,rlinnipeg in 1875 104 3 .3 Map of l,li nni peg i n 1881 105 3.4 Map of l.tinnipeg in i8B4 106 3.5 Map of Winnipeg in 1901 L07 3.6 Comparison