AFRICAN POLITICAL PARTY DEVELOPMENT AND THE LIMITS OF INSTITUTIONAL ENGINEERING By Gerard David Lavery A DISSERTATION Submitted to Michigan State University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Political Science – Doctor of Philosophy 2014 ABSTRACT AFRICAN POLITICAL PARTY DEVELOPMENT AND THE LIMITS OF INSTITUTIONAL ENGINEERING By Gerard David Lavery Why do some African countries have nationally oriented political parties and stable party systems while ethnic parties and volatility plague others? I address this puzzle by systematically analyzing differences in levels of party nationalization and electoral volatility within and across sub-Saharan African countries since 1990. To identify the factors that shape national parties and the systems in which they operate, this dissertation investigates the following research questions: Can political party laws encourage the development of national parties and stable party systems in Africa? What motivates politicians to comply with (or not) party laws that seek to build nationally oriented political parties over ethnic parties? Why do reforms to party laws work in some countries (some of the time) and not in others? How can we improve international political party assistance? Despite their theoretical and practical significance, scholars have largely ignored these questions in Africa. To address these questions, I employ mixed methods research to test a novel theoretical framework that centers on the forces that influence party leaders’ decision to prioritize ethnic balancing over ethnic polarization in building their parties. To systematically examine variation in party development, the large-n component of this project uses data from the African Party Law and Nationalization Database (APLND), an original database covering 78 elections from 27 countries from across the region since 1990. Statistical analysis confirms that higher levels of party system nationalization are associated with lower levels of electoral volatility; the more national the party system the more likely it is to be stable and enduring. As expected, the analyses also confirm that ethnic fractionalization, leadership legacy, and economic conditions are powerful predictors of African political party development. The main finding of the statistical analyses is that centripetal party laws -- regulations that attempt to establish broad-based parties that transcend ethno-regional cleavages -- are associated with both higher levels of party system nationalization and lower levels of electoral volatility. This relationship remains significant even after controlling for alternative explanations, which is important because it suggests that formal institutions are gaining traction in some African countries. The quantitative findings are complemented by in-depth examination of Kenya’s multiparty elections since 1992 and comparative case study analysis of Benin, Zambia, and Ghana. Historical analysis, focus group research, and key-informant interview data suggests national parties and stable party systems are possible only when the forces that encourage multiethnic cooperation (horizontal coordination pressure) are more powerful than the pressures that compel party leaders to cater to their ethnic constituencies. In order for party laws to achieve their intended results they must increase horizontal coordination pressure on politicians thereby compelling them to invest in more organizationally robust and enduring national parties. Based on the key findings of this study, I conclude the dissertation by providing actionable policy recommendations designed to increase the development impact of international political party assistance. Copyright by GERARD DAVID LAVERY 2014 To my parents, Linda Dano and Jerry Lavery, for always believing in me and helping me believe in myself. v ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I am forever indebted to the colleagues, friends, and family that made completing this dissertation possible. First, I thank the members of my dissertation committee for their support throughout my graduate school career. I am especially grateful to Michael Bratton, my dissertation committee chair. He gave me the freedom to pursue the research questions that interested me most, and he helped me to refine rough ideas into an implementable project. He provided sage advice and constructive criticism that kept me focused and on-track. His efficiency, intellect, and tireless dedication to deepening democracy in Africa are an inspiration. Jeffrey Conroy-Krutz gave detailed feedback and asked challenging questions that undoubtedly improved this project. Joshua Sapotichne courageously agreed to join my committee not knowing much about Africa and his practical advice and expertize on policy reform processes and mechanisms proved helpful. Jennifer Olson helped me to minimize (or at least reduce) the political science jargon and generously shared her deep knowledge of the region. Eric Chang provided instrumental guidance early on and always made himself available thereafter. Joel Barkan and David Campbell were enthusiastic cheerleaders of this project and provided encouragement and guidance right up to their untimely deaths. Both are sorely missed. I received generous financial assistance that made my graduate studies and international research possible. Being awarded a University Distinguished Fellowship (UDF) was central in my decision to study at Michigan State University (MSU) and provided me more time to focus on my research. A pre-dissertation travel award from MSU’s International Studies and Programs helped me establish firm foundations for successful fieldwork in East Africa. I am grateful to Carl LeVan and Todd Eisenstadt at American University and to the American Political Science vi Association (APSA) for selecting me to participate in the 2011 Africa Workshop in Nairobi. The College of Social Sciences at MSU awarded me a dissertation completion fellowship that allowed me to finish my research free of external teaching or research responsibilities. I enjoyed working with Carolyn Logan on the Afrobarometer and learned a great deal from her over the years. I appreciate all of the additional assistance I have received from The Department of Political Science at MSU from providing me the funds necessary to improve my Kiswahili in Arusha, Tanzania to enrolling me in the Institute for Qualitative and Multi-Method Research (IQMR) at Syracuse, New York. My fieldwork would not have been nearly as successful if not for my friends and colleagues at the National Democratic Institute (NDI). I thank Shari Bryan for supporting my decision to pursue my Ph.D. in the first place. Mary O’Hagan graciously allowed me to apply my newly acquired research skills to help strengthen NDI’s programming in Kenya. This mzungu deeply appreciates the friendship and ongoing support provided by Dickson Omondi, Bjarte Tora, John Lovdal, Mahija Dodd, Phoebe Mungai, Roseline Idele, Dennis Omondi, Kelley Jones, Aaron Erlich, Jean-Noe Landry, Felix Odhiambo, and countless others in Kenya. Ari Greenberg, Rose Jackson, Kehinde Togun, Sef Ashiagbor, Brionne Dawson, and Michael Baldassaro made me miss the good old days in DC. In addition, I am extremely grateful to Anika Moroff and Matthias Basedau at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA) for saving me months of additional work by generously sharing their raw data on African political party laws. Without the support of my friends at both MSU and the University of Michigan I would never have successfully completed my Ph.D. Special thanks to my cohort for helping me survive statistics and game theory. Nicholas Kerr, Boniface Dulani, and Helen Lee provided much- needed encouragement and positivity. Masaaki Higashijima’s high-quality work served as vii motivation to improve my own research. Brian Kennedy was my go-to sounding board and closest friend in East Lansing. My Ann Arbor crew including Tom and Erica Morrell, Matt Paul, Geoff Wodtke, Ken Hayes, Bridget Lavelle, Patricia Chen, Elyse Jennings, and the Grizzly Peak Brewing Company kept me (mostly) sane for the better part of the last five years. Most importantly, I thank my family for the endless depths of their patience, love, and encouragement. I deeply appreciate the many sacrifices made by my parents, Jerry Lavery and Linda Dano, to ensure that I have had a top-quality education my whole life. I have enjoyed watching my brother, Joe Lavery, become an avid traveller and adventurer. I have truly wonderful in-laws and feel incredibly lucky to be part of such an amazing family. My wife Rachael Pierotti is the very best copilot in life. Being married to me is not an easy job. Thank you for putting up with me and for making me constantly strive to be a better human being. Convincing you to marry me is my biggest accomplishment and the wisest decision I’ve ever made. Finally, thank you to my son, Jesse, for constantly reminding me that there are more important things in life than work and for providing the best incentive to finish graduate school. viii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ........................................................................................................................ xii LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................................... xiv KEY TO SYMBOLS AND ABBREVIATIONS ......................................................................... xv CHAPTER 1: CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK ...........................................................................