ISSN 1198-6727 Fisheries Centre Research Reports 2005 Volume 13 Number 7 Modeling Antarctic Marine Ecosystems Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia, Canada Modeling Antarctic Marine Ecosystems edited by M.L.D. Palomares, P. Pruvost, T.J. Pitcher and D. Pauly Fisheries Centre Research Reports 13(7) 98 pages © published 2005 by The Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia 2202 Main Mall Vancouver, B.C., Canada, V6T 1Z4 ISSN 1198-6727 Fisheries Centre Research Reports 13(7) 2005 MODELING ANTARCTIC MARINE ECOSYSTEMS edited by Maria Lourdes D. Palomares, Patrice Pruvost, Tony J. Pitcher and Daniel Pauly CONTENTS PAGE DIRECTOR’S FOREWORD ...................................................................................................................................... 1 ABSTRACT ...........................................................................................................................................................2 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................................................... 3 SIMULATING ANTARCTIC ECOSYSTEMS: WEAPONS OF MASS CONSTRUCTION Tony J. Pitcher ......................................................................................................................................... 3 ANTARCTIC PENINSULA ....................................................................................................................................... 5 AN ECOSYSTEM SIMULATION MODEL OF THE ANTARCTIC PENINSULA Aftab Erfan and Tony J. Pitcher ............................................................................................................. 5 THE KRILL FISHERY IN THE ANTARCTIC PENINSULA: SPATIAL ECOSYSTEM-BASED SIMULATIONS ADDRESSING CONSERVATION CONCERNS FOR CHARISMATIC SPECIES Tony J. Pitcher and Aftab Erfan ........................................................................................................... 21 SUMMARY OF A PRELIMINARY MODEL OF THE MINKE WHALE-BLUE WHALE-KRILL INTERACTION IN THE ANTARCTIC Mitsuyo Mori and Douglas S. Butterworth..........................................................................................28 KERGUELEN ISLANDS ........................................................................................................................................ 31 FEEDING HABITS OF SEABIRDS AND MARINE MAMMALS OF THE KERGUELEN ARCHIPELAGO Yves Cherel, Charles-André Bost, Christophe Guinet and Henri Weimerskirch ................................ 31 ESTIMATIONS DE LA BIOMASSE DES ZOOPLANCTONS DANS L’ARCHIPEL DE KERGUELEN Jean-Philippe Labat and Patrick Mayzaud.......................................................................................... 37 AN ECOSYSTEM MODEL OF THE KERGUELEN ISLANDS’ EEZ Patrice Pruvost, Guy Duhamel, Maria Lourdes D. Palomares ...........................................................40 FALKLAND ISLANDS ...........................................................................................................................................65 A MASS-BALANCED MODEL OF THE FALKLAND ISLANDS FISHERIES AND ECOSYSTEMS William W.L. Cheung, Tony J. Pitcher,.................................................................................................65 SIMULATIONS OF THE FALKLAND ISLANDS MARINE ECOSYSTEM: CLIMATE, PENGUINS AND SQUID FISHERIES William W.L. Cheung and Tony J. Pitcher ...........................................................................................85 COMMENT ON PENGUINS, SQUID AND FISHERIES IN THE FALKLAND ISLANDS ECOSYSTEM David Agnew..........................................................................................................................................92 NEW ZEALAND ..................................................................................................................................................93 PILOT TROPHIC MODEL FOR SUBANTARCTIC WATER OVER THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU, NEW ZEALAND: A LOW BIOMASS, HIGH TRANSFER EFFICIENCY SYSTEM Janet Bradford-Grieve ..........................................................................................................................93 APPENDICES......................................................................................................................................................95 APPENDIX I: MODELING ANTARCTIC ECOSYSTEMS: A UBC FISHERIES CENTRE AND SEA AROUND US PROJECT WORKSHOP, VANCOUVER, CANADA, 15-17 APRIL 2003 ..................................................................................95 APPENDIX II: ATELIER ECOPATH POUR LES ILES KERGUELEN, MUSEUM NATIONAL D’HISTOIRE NATURELLE, PARIS, FRANCE, 29 SEPTEMBRE AU 3 OCTOBRE 2003 ..................................................................................... 97 A Research Report from the Fisheries Centre at UBC 98 pages © Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia, 2005 FISHERIES CENTRE RESEARCH REPORTS ARE ABSTRACTED IN THE FAO AQUATIC SCIENCES AND FISHERIES ABSTRACTS (ASFA) ISSN 1198-6727 Modeling Antarctic marine ecosystems, M.L.D. Palomares et al. 1 DIRECTOR’S FOREWORD A map of the world with points wherever Ecopath models exist would be covered with such points, and Antarctica, which would have been an exception before, would be represented by the models in this report. In fact, there had been a model of Antarctica published earlier, by Astrid Jarre and others (Trophic flows in the benthic shelf community of the eastern Weddell Sea, Antarctica. p. 118-134. In B. Battaglia, J. Valencia and D. Walton (eds.) Antarctic Communities: Species, Structure and Survival. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1995), based on work by P.H. Schalk and others, published in Trophic Models of Aquatic Ecosystems (V. Christensen and D. Pauly, eds., ICLARM Conf. Proc. 26, 1993). The various models documented here, however, will allow comparisons between subsystems and thus enable, for Antarctica, the kind of detailed comparative analysis that has long been possible for other areas. Such comparison, having provided numerous insights for tropical and temperate systems, can be expected to do the same for Antarctic systems. Notably, it will be possible to quantify the role of pelagic-benthic coupling, assumed to play an important role in polar systems. Also, the dominance of marine mammals and birds will be amenable to comparative study, especially as Arctic systems where these homoeothermic animals dominate have also been described. Two workshops, both sponsored by the Sea Around Us Project, funded by the Pew Charitable Trusts, led to this report: one held on 15-17 April 2003 at the Fisheries Centre, where various models were presented and their implications studied; and the other held on 29 September to 2 October 2003 at the Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle in Paris, where a group of French researchers with experience in the Kerguelen Islands worked on refining an ecosystem model of the waters around that island. This workshop was proposed and followed by visits by Mr. Patrice Pruvost, working with Dr. M.L. Deng Palomares and others at the Fisheries Centre. This report, thus, is also a testimony to the collaboration between the Fisheries Centre and the Muséum National d’Histoire Naturelle. We would also like to acknowledge cooperation between the Sea Around Us Project and the Renewable Resources Assessment Group (Imperial College, London, UK: Dr David Agnew) and the Falklands Islands Government (Dr John Barton) for advice and data concerning the Falklands Islands marine ecosystem and its fisheries, even if we were unable to consider all of them in the pilot models of the Falklands published in this report. Daniel Pauly Director, UBC Fisheries Centre 5 November 2005 2 West African marine ecosystems, Palomares et al. ABSTRACT This Fisheries Centre Research Report presents eleven papers that describe whole-ecosystem models of four Antarctic areas: the Antarctic Peninsula, Kerguelen Islands, Falkland Islands, and the Southern Plateau region, New Zealand. A mass-balance model, sources of data, and derivations of model parameters are detailed for each region. Dynamic simulation models for the Antarctic Peninsula and the Falklands provide preliminary explorations of critical issues in the management of their fisheries and the effects of climate. Analyses examine competition among krill-eating species, the spatial impacts of potential krill fisheries, and precautionary fishery limits established by management bodies. Modeling Antarctic marine ecosystems, M.L.D. Palomares et al. 3 INTRODUCTION SIMULATING ANTARCTIC ECOSYSTEMS: WEAPONS OF MASS CONSTRUCTION1 Tony J. Pitcher Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia, 2202 Main Mall, Vancouver BC V6T 1Z4, Canada; Email:[email protected] The ocean dynamics of the Antarctic region are thought to have a large influence on global fluxes. Living marine organisms in the Antarctic have evolved together in an intricate web of feeding relationships structured on a template of these complex ocean habitats fashioned from ice, currents and upwellings. Evidently, these food webs are robust in the face of extreme seasonal change and have survived long-term climate fluctuations since the Pleistocene. But Antarctic ecosystems have proven delicate in the face of human influences, especially commercial fishing, sealing and whaling. The almost complete removal of large whales by the 1970s must have had major effects on Antarctic food webs, while the present slow recovery of cetacean populations is taking place in the virtual absence of studies