-- Serie~ P-25, No. 420 April 17, 1969 ESTIMATES Qf THE POPULATION OF STATES, BY AGE 1965 TO 1967 With Provisional Estimates for July 1, 1968 Median Age of the Population of States: July 1, 1967 U.S. Median Age 27.7 Median Age ~ 29.0 and over Q,= 1~{{:~:::127.0 to 28.9 HAWAII ,,~ U 25.0 to 26.9 D o Under 25.0 MILES o 100 200. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE BUREAU OF THE CENSUS CONTENTS Page Methodology . • . • . ......•..... 1 Estimates for 1967 .........................•.......................... 1 Estimates of the population 65 years of age and over for 1967 ...................... 2 Estimates for 1965 and 1966 . .......... ~ . .. 3 Provisional estimates for 1968 .........................•.......•.......... 3 Population base. 0 •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• '0 •••••••••••••••••••• 3 Sources of data . .. 0 • • • • • • • • • • ••••••••••••••••••••• 0 ••••••••••••••• 3 Accuracy of estimates •.......................................- .......... 4 Consistency with earlier publications ....................................... 4 Related reports. • . .. .. 5 Rounding of estimates. .. 5 DETAILED TABLES Table Page l.--Estimates of the total resident population, by age, for States: July 1, 1967 ........... 6 2.--Total resident population, by age, for States: April 1, 1960 ..................... 7 3.--Percent change in the total resident population, by age, for States: April 1, 1960, to July 1, 1967 .................................................... 8 4.--Percent distribution of the estimated total resident population, by age, for States: July 1, 1967, with comparative figures for April 1, 1960 ....................... 9 5.--Estimates of the total resident population, by age, for States: Jul;y 1, 1966 ........... 10 6.--Estimates of the total resident population, by age, for States: July 1, 1965 ........... 11 7.--Provisional estimates of the total resident population, by age, for States: July 1, 1968 ... 12 , ' APPENDIX TABLE Page Comparison of Medicare statistics with population estimates based on movement of aged beneficiaries, for persons 65 years old and over: July 1, 1967 ...........•.. " . 13 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. G~vernment Printing Office, Washington, D.C 20402,15 cents. Annual subscription (Series P-20, P-23, P-2S, P-27, P-28 summaries, P-60, and P-65, combined), $8.50; ~ foreign mai ling, $11.00. II ESTIMATES OF THE POPULATION OF STATES, BY AGE: 1965 TO 1967 With Provisional Estimates for July 1, 1968 (Estimates for the years 1965 through 1967 shown here supersede corresponding estimates published in report No. 384 of this series) This report presents estimates of the total Net migration rates for ages 7.50 to 15.49 by resident population by age groups for 1967 and States had previously been estimated in the course . provisional estimates for 1968. The age groups of preparing the estimates of the total population shown for 1967 are: under 5 years, 5 to 17 of States for 1967 shown in Current Population Re­ years, 18 to 44 years, 45 to 64 years, and 65 ports, Series P-25, No. 414. (The method used in years and over, plus the cumulative age groups estimating migration rates for children of school 14 years and over, 18 years and over, and 21 age is described in that report. It employs data years and over. For 1968, the age groups shown on elementary school enrollment and data on age are: under 18 years, 18 to 64 years, and 65 years from the 1960 Census.) and over, plus the cumulative age groups 18 years and over and 21 years andover. Revised estimates The national interstate migration rates are are also shown for 1965 and 1966 in the age based on estimates of interstate migration by age detail shown for 1967. obtained annually from the Current Population Sur­ vey, the Bureau's continuing national sample survey METHODOLOGY of population~ 2 The ratios of the national migration rates for broad age groups to the rates for the Estimates for 1967.--The estimates for all school-age population 7.50 to 15.49 years old for States were obtained by carrying forward the 1960 the period April 1960 to July 1967 are as follows: Census data (after subtracting the estimated size of the Armed Forces) for each of the age groups Age group on estimated date Ratio for each State, and allowing for births, deaths, net civilian international and interstate migration, the Under 5 years .... 0.5890 net movement of civilians into the Armed Forces 5 to 17 years .... 0.9840 between April 1, 1960, and the estimate date,. 18 to 44 years. 1.4317 and the number of Armed Forces stationed in each 45 to 64 years ... 0.4592 State on the estimate date. As a final step, the estimates were so adjusted that the sum of the These are relationships among gross interstate estimates of the five broad age groups for each migrants for the United States as a whole. State equaled the estimate of the total resident Obviously, migration ratios for individual States J population of that State published in Current may vary from the National ratios; however, ~pulation Reports, Series P-25, No. 414. In addi­ annual migration figures for States are not avail­ tion, the sum of the State estimates for each age able. Moreover, the net ratios by age could well group was adjusted to equal the latest national differ from the ratios of gross rates. Nonetheless, population estimates in that age group.l it is assumed here that these same ratios apply equally to all States, and also for a given State, To estimate net civilian migration for a State, that the direction of the net migration is the same migration rates were derived for each age group fOr all of the broad age groups under 65. except age 65 years and over from the _State's estimated migration rate for school-age children Examination of the Current Population Survey for the period April 1960 to July 1967. Specifically, material on annual interstate migration has indi­ the net civilian migration rate, 1960 to 1967,' for cated 'that, given the specific age pattern of each age group in a given State was derived by migration rates shown by the Current Population (1) obtaining the ratio of the national gross inter­ Survey for the last several years, the ratio of the state migration rate for that age group to the net migration rate of a particular age group to the national rate for the age group 7.50 to 15.49, and (2) applying this ratio to the State's net migration rate for the age group 7.50 to 15.49. 2U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P-20, No. 171, IIMobility of the -------- population of the United States: March 1966 to INationa1 population estimates, by age, for 1967 1967," April 30, 1968, and the corresponding re­ are published in Series P-25, No.·385. ports for earlier years of the decade. 1 2 net migration rate of the "school-age" population Estimates of the population 65 years of age and (7.50 to 15.49) will vary with the length of the over for 1967.--In previous reports, estimates estimating period. Thus, the ratio of a 6-year of the population 65 years and over were developed period is different from the corresponding ratio by a cohort-component procec1ure in me same for a 1-year periodo manner as other age groups, with the migration component based on data on interstate migration The procedure developed to derive the ratios of aged beneficiaries obtained -from the SOCial shown above is as follows: Annual migration rates Security Administration. With this report, however, by single years of age for each year 1960 to 1967 the Bureau of the Census is initiating a change in were derived by graphic interpolation of the data procedure. Estimates of the group 65 years and for broad-age groups for each year provided by over for July 1, 1967, represent basically the the Current Population Survey. The interpolated number of persons covered by the "Medicare" migration rates were then applied to annual esti­ program.3 This new source represents an iln­ mates of population by single years of age, and proved basis for estimating the population 65 the resulting estimates of the number of migrants years old and over because of the very high rate in each year of age were cumulated by cohort as of participation of the age group in the program. required for the estimating period. For example, the number of persons 45 to 64 years of age on The distribution, by State, of the reported num­ July 1, 1967 who had migrated during the period ber of persons covered under the Medicare hospital April 1, 1960 to July 1, 1967, was derived by insurance program, plus 30,000 retired Federal summing the number of persons 45 to 64 years employees enrolled in the supplemental medical old on July 1, 1967 who had migrated between insurance program but not eligible to receive July 1, 1966 and July 1, 1967; the number 44 to 63 hospital insurance benefits was adjusted to add to years old on July 1, 1966, who had migrated the July 1, 1967, independent national estimates of between July 1,1965, and July 1,1966; and so on persons 65 years old and over. No adjustment to April 1, 1960. The number of migrants was was made in the State distribution for an unde­ then converted into a migration rate by dividing termined number of persons excluded from the by the appropriate population in 1960. In a similar provisions of the program pending more precise manner, migration rates for the period April 1, information on the number and geographical dis­ 1960, to July 1, 1967.. were computed for the tribution of these persons. "school-age" group. The migration rate for the "schaal-age" children was then divided into the For the United States as a whole, the Medicare migration rates for these age groups to derive figure for July 1, 1967, exceeded the independent the ratios shown above.