1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW Working draft, Washington, DC 20036 Please send comments Anthony H. Cordesman and suggested additions Phone: 1.202.775.3270 to Email: [email protected] [email protected] Iran and the Changing Web version: www.csis.org/burke/reports Military Balance in the Gulf Net Assessment Indicators Anthony H. Cordesman With the assistance of Grace Hwang March 26, 2019 Burke Chair Photo: -/ Getty Images In Strategy 1 Table of Contents The Third Key Shift in the Military Balance: The Impact of Iran’s Missile Forces …………………………………………………………….……….…… 162 The Changing Impact of Iran’s Missile Forces ……………………………………………………….……..………………………….…………………..163 The Air and Air Defense Side of the Air-Missile Balance ………………………………………………………………..……….………………………. 165 Comparing the Missile Forces on Each Side ………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 184 The Changing Character of Iran’s Missile Forces …………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 203 Beyond the Chronology, Examples of Iran’s Recent Use of Missile Forces ……………………………………………………..…………….…………. 204 Gulf Vulnerability and the Regional Nature of “Mutually Assured Destruction” (MAD) ……………………………………………………..…………. 217 The Need for Missile Defense? ……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………. 243 The Iranian Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Risk ……………………………………………………………………………….……………..………. 251 The Uncertain Future Evolution of Missile Forces ………………………………………………………………………………….………………….…. 257 Probable Patterns of Deterrence, War Fighting, and Escalation ……………………………………………………………………………………………261 15 Appendix of Charts, Maps, Tables, and Graphics Chart of Total Oil Flows through the Strait of Hormuz ..………………………………………….…………………………………….………..…………………147 Map of The Strategic Importance of the Bab el-Mandeb ..……………………………………………….…………………………….………….……..………….148 Chart of The Strategic Importance of the SUMED Pipeline and Suez Canal (I) ..…………..………………………………………….…………….….………….149 Chart of The Strategic Importance of the SUMED Pipeline and Suez Canal (II) ..…………………………………………………….……………….…..……….150 Map of The Iran-Iraq Border Area ..…………………………………………………………………………………….……………………………….…..………154 Map of The Kuwaiti “hinge ” in Land Combat in the Gulf ..…………………………………………………………………………….………………………….155 Chart of Comparative Active Armed Forces, Estimated Reserves, and Active Paramilitary Personnel: 2019 ..………………………………..………..…………156 Chart of Comparative Active Army, National Guard, Royal/Presidential Guard, IRGC Military Personnel (Thousands) 2019 ..……….………………………...157 Chart of Comparative Total Land Force Major Weapons Holdings in 2019 ..………………….……………………………………….…………………..………158 Chart of Comparative Main Battle Tank Strength, 2019 ..……………………………………………………………………………………..…………………….159 Chart of Comparative Other Armored Vehicle Strength by Major Category, 2019 ..……………………………………..…………….……………..……………160 Chart of Comparative Artillery Strength by Major Category, 2019 ..…………………………………..……………………………….……………………..…….161 Map of Gulf Air Power and Air and Missile Bases ..……………………………………………………………………………………..………………………….167 Chart of Comparative Total Fixed-Wing Combat Aircraft Strength, 2020 ..…………………………………………………………….…………………….…….168 Chart of Comparative Modern Dual Capable and Strike Combat Aircraft Strength, 2020 ..……………………………..…………….………………………..….169 Chart of Comparative Fighter and Strike-Attack Combat Aircraft Strength by Type ..………………………………………………….………………………….170 Map of Iranian Combat Airbases and Major Combat Aircraft ..…………………………………………………………………………….……………………….173 Map of Iran’s Strategic Depth ..………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..…….175 Map of Range of Iran’s Air Power ..…………………………………………………………………………………………..………….………………………….176 Map of Iranian (Pars) View of Gulf Air Threat ..……………………………………………………………………………………….………………………..…..177 19 Appendix of Charts, Maps, Tables, and Graphics Chart of Major Iranian UAVs ..………………………………………………………………………………………………….……….……………….………….178 Map of Gulf SAM Defenses (Pre S-300) ..…………………………………………………………………………….………………….…………………………179 Map of Iranian Major Bases and SAM Defenses ..…………………………………………………………….……………………….…………………..…….….180 Map of DIA Assessment of Iranian Long-Range Land-Based Air Defense Systems and Surface to Air Missiles …………………………………………………182 Map of Key Deployment Factors ..…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………..183 Chart of DIA Estimate of Iranian Missile Profiles ..………………………………………….………………………………………….………………….……….192 Chart of Iran’s Major Missiles ..…………………………………………………………………………………..…………………….……………………………193 Map of Iran's Current Surface-to-Surface Missile Ranges ..……………………………………..……………………………………….………………………….194 Map of DIA Estimate of Iranian Missile Ranges ..…………………………………………………………….…………………………………………………….195 Map of Shabab 3M Coverage ..…………………………………………………………………………………………..……………….………………………….196 Map of The Missile War in Yemen ..………………………………………………………………………………..…………………….…………………………205 Chart of Houthi Attacks versus Saudi Intercepts ..………………………………………………………..…………………………….……………………..….….206 Chart of Houthi Missile, UAV, and Other Attacks on Saudi Infrastructure: (Jul 2016-Jul 2019) ..…………………………………………………………………207 Map of Iranian Missile Attacks: 2017-2020 ..……………………………………………….………………………………………….……………………..….….208 Photo of Iranian Precision Strikes on Abqaiq in September 2019 ..……………………………………….…………………………….……………………….….209 Satellite Photo of Attacks on Ain al-Asad Air Base ..…………………………………………………………………………………….………………………….212 Photo of Damaged and destroyed structures at Ain al-Asad Air Base ..……………………….………………………………………….…………………………213 Photo of Sample Damage to Ain al-Asad Air Base ..…………………………………………………………………………………………………………..…….214 Map of Sample PMF Rocket Damage to PMF Bases in Iraq on March 13, 2020 ..………………………………..…………………….…………………………..215 Map of Major Gulf-Wide Petroleum Targets ..…………………………………………………………………………….……………………..………………….223 20 Appendix of Charts, Maps, and Tables Map of Broader Gulf Energy Infrastructure ..………………………………………………………………………………………….……………..……………...224 Map of Petroleum Targets Near Strait of Hormuz ..……………………………………………………………………..……………….………………………….225 Map of Major Iranian Petroleum Targets ..…………………………………………………………………………………………….….…………………………226 Photo of Iran’s Kharg Island ..………………………………………………………………………….…………………………………….……………..………. 228 Map of Nationwide Saudi Petroleum Targets ..…………………………………………………………………………..…………….……………………..……..229 Photo of Saudi Ras Taura Main Facility ..……………………………………………………………………………………………….…………………………..230 Photo of Oil Tank Farm at Ras Tanura ..………………………………………………………………………………………..……….…………………………..231 Map of Nationwide UAE Petroleum Targets ..………………………………………………………………………………..………….………………………….232 Map of Major Gulf Urban Areas, Seaports and Tanker Terminals ..………………………………….………………………………….………………………….233 Chart of Hostage Cities: Gulf Urbanization and Area Targets (2020) ..………………………………………………………………….………………….………234 Map of Gulf Desalination Facilities –2009 ..………………………………………………………………………….………………………….……………….....235 Map of Gulf Desalination Facilities – 2013 ..…………………………………………………………………………….……………………………………….…236 Map of Saudi Desalination Plant ..…………………………………………………………………………….……………………………………………………..237 Map of Major Air Facilities Near the Gulf Coasts ..……………………………………………………………………………..……….………………………….238 Satellite Photo of Dubai City ..…………………………………………………………………………………….………………………..………………………. 239 Map of Qatari Energy Facilities ..…………………………………………………………………………………….…………………..………………………….240 Photo of Qatari NGL Gas Train ..………………………………………………………………………………………………………..…………………….…….241 Map of Regional Nuclear Capabilities ..………………………………………………………………………………………….……….…………………………242 Chart of ThAAD vs. Patriot ..……………………………………………………………………………………………………….….………………………..…,248 Map of Iran with S400 ..……………………………………………………………………………………………………………..….……………….………..….250 21 Appendix of Charts, Maps, and Tables Chart of Iran Reinvigorated Push for Atomic Fuel ..……………………………………………………………………..…………….…………………..………..254 Map of Remaining Iranian Nuclear Facilities ..………………………………………………………………………………….…….…………………………….255 Photo of Hard Targets: Iran’s Fordow Facility ..………………………………………………………………………………..……….………………….………..256 22 The Third Key Shift in the Military Balance: The Impact of Iran’s Missile Forces 162 The Changing Impact of Iran’s Missile Forces The third key shift in the balance is the rising capabilities of Iran’s missile forces and their growing conventional precision strike capability – evolving capabilities whose end state is still far from clear and interacts with both unclear changes in airpower of each nation shaping the Gulf balance and changes in their land-based air and missile defenses. The charts and data that follow address both known changes in this aspect of the balance and the uncertainties involved. They do not attempt to forecast the impact of the Coronavirus. The assessment is divided into the following sections to illustrate both the importance of known shifts in the balance and the key uncertainties that still exist regarding the character and effectiveness of these changes: • The Air and Air Defense Side of the Air-Missile Balance shows that the United States and the Arab Gulf states steadily built-up a decisive lead in air power during the time from the fall of the Shah to the present. It further illustrates the impact of sanctions and of the arm embargoes that placed severe limits on Iran’s imports of advanced combat aircraft, precision guided munitions, and advanced surface- to-air missiles (SAMs) and missile defenses. • Comparing the Missile Forces on Each Side provides a rough comparison of Iranian and Arab missile forces that highlights