Latin America and Caribbean Region Sustainable Development Working Paper 32 Public Disclosure Authorized Assessing the Potential Consequences of Climate Destabilization in Latin America Projected coral bleaching by 2050 Landfall of Hurricanes in the Caribbean Basin 30 es 25 n o 20 Cycl 15 cal i p 10 o Public Disclosure Authorized r 5 # T 0 1920 1945 1970 1995 2020 > 80 60-80 40-60 20-40 10-20 ~ 0 Year Percent remaining from original coral cover at four different latitudes Sea level changes in Central America and the Caribbean Public Disclosure Authorized January 2009 Edited by: Walter Vergara The World Bank Latin America and the Caribbean Region Sustainable Development Department (LCSSD) Public Disclosure Authorized Sustainable Development Working Paper 32 Assessing the Potential Consequences of Climate Destabilization in Latin America January 2009 ——————————— Edited By: Walter Vergara With contributions from: World Bank: W. Vergara, A. Deeb, A. Valencia, S. Haeussling, A. Zarzar, N. Toba, D. Mira-Salama Georgia Institute of Technology (USA): J. Curry, M. Jelinek, B. Foskey, A. Suzuki, P. Webster University of Massachusetts (USA): R. Bradley IRD (France): B. Francou Ecoversa (Colombia): J. Blanco, D. Hernández University of the West Indies (Trinidad): K. Miller The World Bank Latin America and the Caribbean Region Sustainable Development Department (LCSSD) ii LCR Sustainable Development Working Paper No. 32 This report is based on data, information, and analysis of the results of work undertaken as part of the portfolio of adaptation activities in the Latin America Sustainable Development Department of the World Bank. The report has been made possible thanks to the contributions of many individuals and institutions, without whose support and hard work the results summarized here would not have been achieved. The authors wish to acknowledge the comments and contributions received from numerous colleagues both inside and outside of the institution, in particular Lawrence Buja from NCAR, Sofia Bettencourt, Marea Hatziolos and Stefano Pagiola from the World Bank, Mark Lambrides from OAS, and Robert Buddenmeier, for agreeing to review an earlier version, or sections, of this report. Special thanks are due to Adriana Valencia, Janice Molina, and Chantal Toledo who assisted with the editing of the report. _______________________________________________________________________________________________ The findings, interpretations, and conclusions in this document are those of the authors, and should not be attributed to the World Bank, its affiliated organizations, members of its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. Cover art credits: Left panel: Evolution of tropical cyclones in the Caribbean Basin in “Potential Economic Impacts of Hurricanes in Central America and the Caribbean ca. 2020-2025”. Right panel: Evolution of relative coral cover over time for one Latitude (Year 2050) in “The Consequences of Climate-induced Coral Loss in the Caribbean by 2050–2080”. Bottom Panel: Sea Level Changes in Central America in “Land under Siege: Recent Variations in Sea Level through the Americas”. Additional copies may be obtained from Walter Vergara ([email protected] or tel. 202-458-2705), Seraphine Haeussling ([email protected] or tel. 202-458-9347), or Beatriz Iraheta ([email protected] or tel. 202- 473-7778). ii iii LCR Sustainable Development Working Paper No. 32 Contents Foreword...............................................................................................................4 Climate Hotspots: Climate-Induced Ecosystem Damage in Latin America ...........5 Potential Economic Impacts of Hurricanes in Mexico, Central America, and the Caribbean ca. 2020–2025.............................................................................18 Potential Economic Impacts of Climate Change in the Caribbean Community...35 The Potential Consequences of Climate-induced Coral Loss in the Caribbean by 2050–2080 .....................................................................................................48 The Potential Consequences of Rapid Glacier Retreat in the Northern Andes...59 The Potential Costs of Climate Change in Tropical Vector-Borne Diseases – A Case Study of Malaria and Dengue in Colombia.............................................67 Land under Siege: Recent Variations in Sea Level through the Americas..........86 Annex 1: Estimated Total Annual Impacts of Climate Change on CARICOM Countries circa 2080 (in thousand US$ 2007 prices)..........................................94 Annex 2. Statistical results of regression model for malaria from P. falciparum, P. vivax, and dengue ..........................................................................................97 Annex 3. Causes of Variation in Sea Level.......................................................100 Annex 4. Variability in Sea Level Change .........................................................106 Annex 5. Seismic and Meteorological Influences on Sea Level........................109 iii 4 LCR Sustainable Development Working Paper No. 32 Foreword Estimating the potential costs of climate destabilization is not a trivial matter. Potential climate impacts have multiple consequences, some of which can be monetized while others are beyond the reach of standard economic tools. A full assessment of the implications of climate impacts often cannot be completed because many of the consequences are only partly known. This report summarizes data recently made available, through the portfolio of adaptation activities in the region, on some of the damages induced by climate destabilization. These include impacts from hurricane intensification, glacier retreat, and increased exposure to tropical vector diseases, coral bleaching, and composite costs of climate change in the particularly vulnerable Caribbean Basin. Other costs are becoming evident but they still cannot be estimated. Most worrisome among these are the potential implications from Amazon dieback which, if realized, will drastically affect the water cycle in the region as well as environmental services essential to economic activity in the region, with wider global implications. However, this is far from the whole story, which must also include the costs to other species. The region is host to unique ecosystems of global importance, including the Amazon rainforest, the coral reefs in the Caribbean, the high-mountain ecosystems of the Andes, and the vast coastal zones in the Gulf of Mexico. All of these habitats are seriously threatened by climate change. The region includes five of the world’s ten most bio-diverse countries (Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, and Peru) and the world’s single most biologically diverse area (the eastern slope of the Andes). Although the full implications of these impacts are yet to be estimated, this report presents some of what is already known, with information derived from activities in the adaptation to climate change portfolio in the region. The report thus summarizes the value of damages induced by hurricane intensification, coral mortality, glacier retreat and warming of mountain ecosystems, increased incidence of tropical vector diseases, for specific areas of Latin America. The estimates range from tens of billion dollars as a result of increases in hurricane frequency and intensity in the Caribbean basin to a few million resulting from increased exposure to Malaria and Dengue in the Colombian piedmont. The estimates correspond to different analysis and while grossly consistent in terms of future climate assumptions, no effort was made to homogenize the timing of the projections. The report refers to destabilization in the title as recognition, that the region is now facing impacts from major, destabilizing changes in its climate. 5 LCR Sustainable Development Working Paper No. 32 Climate Hotspots: Climate-Induced Ecosystem Damage in Latin America Walter Vergara World Bank The global path of CO2 already surpasses that anticipated under the worst-case SRES scenario (Figure 1). Thus, the current trend may result in a situation that exceeds the direst of anticipated consequences. Although there are uncertainties with regard to exact consequences, there is high confidence (IPCC 2007) that impacts from climate change, even under significantly more modest emission scenarios, will affect the functioning and integrity of key ecosystems worldwide. These impacts will add to the stress already resulting from local anthropogenic effects (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2007) and combined represent an unprecedented challenge to the global biosphere. While the impacts are being felt globally, some regions will be more affected than others. In particular, the effects of climate change1 will likely heavily impact Latin America and the Caribbean, where there remains a substantial, but intrinsically fragile, natural capital and where there are a number of climate-sensitive ecoregions. These climate-sensitive regions should be further characterized to reflect the relative vulnerability of dependent populations (not just humans) to climate impacts. The situation contrasts with a relatively 2 modest volume of CO2 emissions generated in the subcontinent. Figure 1. Comparison of current path of emissions with worst-case SRE (A1F) scenario 1995–June 2008 Source: Observed CO2 values (through June 2008) taken from NOAA ESRL http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends IPCC values taken from IPCC-DDC. http://www.ipcc-data.org/ddc_co2.html 1 In addition,