PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN RUSSIA 4th March 2012 European Elections monitor Presidential Election Russia, an unsurprising election from Corinne Deloy translated by Helen Levy On 24th September 2011 Russian Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin (United Russia, ER) said he wanted Dmitry Medvedev to lead United Russia’s list in the general elections that took place on 4th De- cember last, and then Dmitry Medvedev said he was going to support the outgoing Prime Minister’s bid in the presidential election on 4th March 2012, with Vladimir Putin promising to grant the post ANALYSIS of Prime Minister to Dmitry Medvedev when he was elected head of State. “In no uncertain terms 1 month before I want to say that we came to an agreement some years ago about what we would do,” declared the poll Vladimir Putin. Russia’s main leaders have therefore decided to exchange posts, a tactic, that ac- cording to the polls, deeply displeased many Russians. “We have not seen behaviour like this since Stalin and his personality cult,” declared political expert Gleb Pavlovsky. “The elections have never been turned into a farce like this,” maintains Stanislas Belkovsky, the founder and director of the National Strategy Institute and the communication company Politech. Nothing will be at stake therefore in the presidential election on 4th March next, since victory for Vladimir Putin seems already to have been decided. Some issues remain however: will the outgoing Prime Minister be elected in the first round? And above all what will happen after the election? General Elections under Challenge and sometimes the tension is high between the leaders of the various movements. The demonstrations rallied On 4th December 2011 Dmitry Medvedev’s and Prime those close to the far left, communists, liberals, natio- Minister Vladimir Putin’s party, United Russia (ER) won nalists, those fighting corruption, like blogger Alexey the general elections taking 49.32% of the vote, i.e. Navalny, to whom we owe the expression “a party of 238 of the 450 seats in the Duma, the lower chamber thieves and con-men” (partiya vorov i zhulikov)” given of Parliament. These were the weakest results ever re- to United Russia; Navalny was also the creator of the corded by ER. Moreover their announcement was the community web site in 2010 RosPil (pillage of Russia), source of great anger on the part of some of the popu- which condemns the embezzlement of public goods and lation who denounced electoral fraud. This was accom- corruption. This is said to represent some $300 billion, panied by a strong movement of protest, the strongest i.e. one third of the State’s budget. Navalny became since Putin took power in 2000. famous by revealing the financial embezzlement that On 10th December around 50,000 people demons- the VTB, an 85% State-owned bank was undertaking trated, with a white ribbon in their buttonhole (Bela- – likewise Transneft, the company that has a monopoly tenta) in Bolotnaya Square in Moscow demanding the over the oil-pipelines, accused of stealing €2.9 billion cancellation of the election. On 24th December again during the building of the Siberia-Pacific pipeline. On 85,000 turned out to demonstrate in Andrey Sakharov 5th December the blogger was arrested by the police Ave against the electoral fraud that took place on 4th and imprisoned for two weeks. Agreement seems to be December and the arrests and the sentencing of some impossible between the liberals, nationalists and even demonstrators to firm prison sentences – they also de- the communists and no leader has really emerged from manded Vladimir Putin’s resignation. The movement this protest movement. The politicians present in the spread to the provinces, a rare event in Russia: St Pe- demonstrations also irritated the crowd. tersburg, Gorno-Altaysk, Novosibirsk, Yekaterinburg, “The lack of a political figure behind whom the mo- Chelyabinsk, Kazan, Perm, Nizhniy Novgorod, Bryansk vement might rally is its greatest weakness and yet and Arkhangelsk. its greatest strength,” says political expert Andrey Opposition to Vladimir Putin’s regime is quite diverse Grachev, former spokesperson (1990-1991) of the Se- Political issues FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN / PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN RUSSIA / 4TH MARCH 2012 Presidential election in Russia 4th March 2012 cretary General of the Central Committee of the Com- on 16th December. Indeed the Russians seem to have munist Party of the Soviet Union (1985-1991) Mikhail freed themselves from a certain kind of fear. Moreo- Gorbachev during perestroika. ver electoral fraud is not the only cause of discontent On 31st January around fifty opponents, including and the only reason for bringing demonstrators out 02 Eduard Limonov, who was excluded from the presi- on the street. The Russian middle class, that is rising dential race, were arrested during a demonstration rapidly, is increasingly expressing its discontent with that had not been given permission to rally in Moscow the regime in office, whose inefficacy and corruption it (on 31st of each month, of those which have 31 days, criticises. This was a factor that enabled the Commu- a demonstration is organised to defend article 31 of nist Party (KPRF) and Fair Russia (SR) to improve their the Constitution that guarantees the freedom to as- results in the general elections (the two parties won semble). On 1st February a 140m2 banner bearing the 19.19% and 13.24% of the vote respectively, i.e. 92 slogan “Putin, get out” and a caricature of the Prime and 64 seats in the Duma). United Russia came second Minister, who had been crossed out in black, was atta- and even third in several towns. And so it won 21% of ched to a building just opposite the Kremlin on a quay the vote in Dubna (48% in the previous general elec- next to the Moskva. Another demonstration took place tion on 2nd December 2007) and 22% in Korolev, the on 4th February between October Square and Bolot- town in which the Space Agency has its flight control naya Square. centre (59% four years ago). According to a poll undertaken by the Levada Centre, “The general elections on 4th December 2011 did not and published at the end of December 2011, three respect electoral standards,” declared the Organisation quarters of the Russians (73%) say they are dissatis- for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) whose fied with the government’s policy “There is an enor- mission it was to observe the election. It witnessed mous problem of legitimacy. This movement is carried various infringements (ballot stuffing, multiple voting, along by people who are not politicised,” stresses etc.) and deplored the hundreds of arrests of opposi- Carine Clément, director of the Collective Action Ins- tion militants who wanted to demonstrate on the day. titute in Moscow, adding “it is a question of making Moreover many videos showing massive infringement this movement last and politicising it, of transforming operations were put on-line and seen by millions of offended dignity into sustainable commitment, eve- Russians. “What we saw on the TV never existed in rywhere in Russia.” “The ruling power is now in an the past” maintained journalist Yulia Latynina. The historical dead-end, it insists on provoking and discre- internet penetration rate in Russia is 46%, so 52.9 diting the organisers of the demonstrations but above million people have access to the world web at least all it is preparing its vengeance,” says Andrey Illaryo- once a month. Another new phenomenon was the res- nov, chairman of the Economic Analysis Institute. With ponse given by Patriarch Kirill of the Orthodox Church, his back to the wall, Vladimir Putin has one alternative: who defended the demonstrators, whom he said were step up the authoritarian tendencies of his regime or “acting in legitimate protest” against the corruption accept the pluralisation of the political arena. For the of the elites. Finally, Mikhail Gorbachev declared his time being he has not ruled out reserving some go- “shame” of having supported Vladimir Putin in 2000 vernment posts for the opposition after his victory on and said “I would advise Mr Putin to leave now.” 4th March next. “I have already said that I had invited the leaders of the parties deemed as being the oppo- The Prime Minister has said that polling stations will sition to participate, for example Fair Cause (PD) and be equipped with cameras on 4thMarch. “The latter Yabloko. These people have worked and continue to will not enable the filming of the counting process, work effectively and I do not see anything impossible the recording of the results and the conditions of their in that,” he maintained. storage,” stresses Heidi Tagliavini, head of the OSCE’s Russian observation mission. Vladimir Putin counter attacks Although Putin is far from having been ousted from “The general elections are over. Discussion over revi- power, his relationship with the Russian people has sing the results is out of the question,” this was the changed. “The myth of the omnipotent Vladimir Putin response Putin gave to demonstrators. “In my opinion has collapsed,” said a blogger on radio “Moscow Echo” the election results undeniably reflect public opinion,” Political issues FONDATION ROBERT SCHUMAN / GENERAL ELECTIONS IN RUSSIA / 4TH DECEMBER 2011 Presidential election in Russia 4th March 2012 he added. As usual he accused the demonstrators of its 2011 annual report and believed that fraud totalled “having a Russian passport” but of working for “a fo- 718.5 billion roubles (€17.8 billion), a record sum since reign power and enjoying funding from abroad.” He the 20th century. Vladimir Putin said that doing away stressed that “the opposition is leading Russia into with kickback payments on State orders would lead to 03 chaos.” savings of “between 5% to 10% of the federal budget, Vladimir Putin attempted to analyse the situation.