CLIMATE RISK PROFILE SERIES ADAPTING GREEN INNOVATION CENTRES TO CLIMATE CHANGE: ANALYSIS OF VALUE CHAIN ADAPTATION POTENTIAL Cassava and plantain value chains in Bas-Sassandra, Comoé, and Lagunes Districts, Cote D’Ivoire ©CIAT/NeilPalmer ©CIAT/NeilPalmer Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Cassava and plantain value chains in Bas-Sassandra, Comoé, and Lagunes Districts, Cote D’Ivoire ABOUT THIS REPORT Climate change is affecting agriculture more The report begins with an extensive than any other sector. Increased frequency literature reviews of the selected value Highlights and severity of drought, flood, heat, and chains and their key challenges and unseasonable rainfall heavily impact rainfed adaptation strategies. Climate hazards and » This study focuses on three districts of Ivory Coast: Bas-Sassandra, Comoé, and agriculture, ultimately resulting in production crop suitability modelling offer insights into Lagunes (Chapter 1, pg.7). losses. In that context, The Alliance of Bioversity potential future scenarios under climate change. International and the International Center for These results inform potential adaptation » Agriculture is a pillar of the economy in Ivory Coast, contributing about 20% of Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) through its climate approaches, which are prioritized by in-country the gross domestic product (GDP) and employing 46% of the workforce (Chapter action lever, are developing climate risk profiles experts and stakeholders through an online 2, pg.8). for agricultural value chains in developing survey. The top-rated adaptation priorities countries at the national and subnational level. undergo a cost-benefit analysis. Finally, the » Agriculture also faces non-climatic challenges such as the low use of fertilizers, These profiles build on past work conducted results are peer-reviewed by the GIC country lack of phytosanitary products, and poor road infrastructure (Chapter 2, pg.14). by CIAT and the CGIAR Research Program on office and the Alliance scientific staff. Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security » National policies such as the National Program for Agricultural Investment (PNIA (CCAFS)in collaboration with the World Bank and II) and the National Climate Change Program support adaptation (Chapter 3, other partners, including FAO, USAID, DFID1. The Green Innovation Centres for the pg.15). Agriculture and Food Sector (GIC) founded The present report aims to provide a climate by German Federal Ministry for Economic Programs such as the West African Agricultural Productivity Program (WAAPP) and vulnerability analysis of the Green Cooperation and Development (BMZ) and » led by the German Agency for International work with local organizations to grant actors in the value chains access to better Innovation Centres (GIC) target commodity Cooperation (GIZ) in collaboration with local inputs and the best practices to improve productivity (Chapter 4, pg.16). value chains. Herein we identify climate ministries and programmes, aims to promote change- related vulnerabilities, hazards, and agricultural innovation under the ONEWORLD opportunities for adaptation to the same. No Hunger initiative. Through the GIC, GIZ » The main climate change hazards relevant to the study area are droughts and aims to generate employment raise farmers’ Ultimately, our goal is to foster awareness of heat stress; flooding also affects the cassava and plantain value chains(Chapter income, and improve farmers’ education and 5, pg.18). risks and adaptation priorities in the selected skills by funding training in good agricultural value chains and inform climate investments practices, water management, post-harvest and planning through the recommendations on processing, and entrepreneurship. » Interventions to foster climate adaptation include technical assistance, broader priority innovations to manage climate risks. access to inputs, and better access to financial services(Chapter 6, pg.24). » General promising adaptation strategies include changing agricultural calendars to enable late sowing and off-season production, crop association, crop rotation, Planning, data Climate risk Identification Production of and mulching (Chapter 6, pg.24-25). collection and assessment of adaptation the country stakeholder strategies climate profile » Farmers need sufficient financial support to enable operations and the adoption engagement and validation of new strategies (Chapter 6, pg.29). » Conclusively the adaptation potential for the selected value chains is very - Literature review - Hazard analysis - Detailed review - Peer-review promising. The adoption of improved cassava varieties and multiplication of (key documents - Crop suitability - Gap analysis and and datasets) modelling identification of cuttings from improved varieties are low-risk and pay returns quickly, but the climate adaptation high cost of implementation could hinder adoption (Chapter 6, pg.28-29). - Online survey - CBA analysis 1 https://ccafs.cgiar.org/publications/csa-country-profiles 2 3 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Cassava and plantain value chains in Bas-Sassandra, Comoé, and Lagunes Districts, Cote D’Ivoire Contents list of figures ABOUT THE REPORT ................................................................2 Figure 1. Map of selected regions in Cote d’Ivoire ...................................9 Figure 2. Agriculture and livelihoods .............................................12 HIGHLIGHTS.......................................................................3 Figure 3. Historical (left), and future projected (center) and projected change (right) for the maximum number of consecutive dry days within the year(all year) (average ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS.....................................................7 of last 30 years) for Bas-Sassandra, Comoé, and Lagunes Districts of Cote d’Ivoire .....25 1. INTRODUCTION . .8 Figure 4. Historical (left), and future projected (center) and projected change (right) for the number of moisture stress days within the year(all year) (average of last 30 years) for Bas-Sassandra, Comoé, and Lagunes Districts of Cote d’Ivoire..............25 2. AGRICULTURAL CONTEXT .......................................................10 2.1. Economic relevance of farming 10 Figure 5. Historical (left), and future projected (center) and projected change (right) 2.2. People and livelihoods 10 for the total number of days with maximum temperature greater or equal to 35°C in the year (all year) (average of last 30 years) for Bas-Sassandra, Comoé, and Lagunes 2.3. Agricultural activities 11 Districts of Cote d’Ivoire ........................................................26 2.4. Agriculture value chain commodities 14 2.4.1. Cassava 14 Figure 6. Historical (left), and future projected (center) and projected change (right) 2.4.2. Plantains 16 for the maximum 5-day running average precipitation in millimeters (average of last 2.5. Agricultural sector challenges 17 30 years) for Bas-Sassandra, Comoé, and Lagunes Districts of Cote d’Ivoire ...........26 3. POLICIES, STRATEGIES AND PROGRAMS ON CLIMATE CHANGEE...................... 20 Figure 7. Historical and future (scenario RCP 8.5, periods 2030 and 2050) suitability of cassava production in Bas-Sassandra, Comoé, and Lagunes Districts of 3.1. Cassava 20 Cote d’Ivoire...................................................................27 3.2. Plantains 21 Figure 8. Historical and future (scenario RCP 8.5, periods 2030 and 2050) suitability of plantain production in Bas-Sassandra, Comoé, and Lagunes Districts of 4. GOVERNANCE, INSTITUTIONAL RESOURCES AND CAPACITY ......................... 22 Cote d’Ivoire...................................................................28 5. CLIMATE CHANGE-RELATED RISKS AND VULNERABILITIES.......................... 24 Figure 9. Yield for BAU versus the use of an improved variety of cassava in Ivory Coast ....................................................................36 5.1. Farmers’ perceptions on climate change 24 5.2. Climate change and variability: historic and future trends 24 5.3. Crop suitability analysis 26 5.4. Climate vulnerabilities across agriculture value chain commodities 29 list of tables 6. ADAPTATION TO CLIMATE CHANGE AND VARIABILITY .............................. 30 Table 1. Specific practices within each practice group relevant to the focus value chains ........................................................................32 6.1. On-farm adaptation strategies 30 6.2. Overall ranking of the adaptation strategies 31 Table 2. Adapting to climate: strategies across major value chain commodities........33 6.3. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of prioritized adaptation strategies 35 Table 3. Costs for BAU and the use of an improved cassava variety in Ivory Coast .....36 7. SYNTHESIS AND RECOMMENDATIONS........................................... 38 Table 4. Profitability associated with the use of an improved cassava variety in Ivory 8. WORKS CITED .............................................................. 42 Coast .........................................................................36 Table 5. Potential strategies and considerations for advancing CSA at scale ...........40 9. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ....................................................... 46 4 5 Adapting Green Innovation Centres to climate change: analysis of value chain adaptation potential Cassava and plantain value chains in Bas-Sassandra, Comoé, and