AI I IIIAI 11111111111NR T I I III III I I II 3 ACKU 00008753 5 Drought: rapid survey, June 2000 Affected areas in Laghman, Kunar and Nuristan provinces Evaluation section, Jalalabad, June 2000 MZP, NA Introduction Since last year Afghanistan has been affected by a pronounced drought. The east of the country has not been spared.WFP, in consultation with the office of YAM', has evaluated the situation in 4 districts at the foot of the Spin Ghar chain, consideredas the most affected areas of Nangarhar province (Rodat, Surkhrud, Chaprihar, Hesarak). MADERA's team completed this evaluation in the most affected villages in the districts of Surkhrud and Chaprihar.Projects have been drawn up and presented to the WFP office in Jalalabad, with the aim of reducing the food shortage and avoiding compulsive migration of the population in the next few months. On the other hand, information provided to us by our regional supervisors also highlighted many villages affected by drought in Kunar, Laghman and Nuristan provinces. We have therefore carried out a rapid survey in several districts of these three provinces with the objective of assessing the situation of drought in the most affected areas of Laghman, Kunar and Nuristan provinces. Indicators We have taken into account a limited number of indicators in order to carry out this work: 1. Availability of water for human consumption and for irrigation. 2. Areas cultivated in Autumn 1999 and Spring 2000. 3. Replacement of crops of strong potential by others, less demanding in water. 4. Yields of wheat sown in Autumn 1999 and harvested in Spring 2000. 5. Sales of animals and prices of meat. 6. Emigration of families due to the drought. Methodology of the survey First stage: Location of the most affected areas in each province by the regional directors of MADERA. Second stage: Surveys at village level: In each of the areas defined by the regional directors, those closest- persons in charge of agricultural centres, veterinarians or forestry workers of MADERA, have brought to completion the surveys in 3, 4 or 5 villages, with the assistance of the regional director. The survey was held at village level, during a small meeting with the authorities. This document presents the main conclusions of the survey and detailed analysis of the main indicators,.completed in the annex by the corresponding tables. Vulnerability and Mapping section, WFP 2 Main conclusions of the survey 1. The entire area studied is affected by drought. Areas where thereare springs that provide drinking water or irrigation water, are more affected than those where theyuse water from the rivers.All the indicators observed are alarming: the water shortage is almost always higher than 50% of the normal output, the cultivatedareas decreasing in the same proportion, the fall in wheat yield is 65%on average, the sale of animals is 5 times greater than in a normal year. 2. Drought affects the three provinces we have studied ina different way: The districts surveyed in Laghman province are severely affected:more than 80% of villages have no water for irrigation this year, wheat yields have fallen in thesame proportion, also this year's grain -fields. As a consequence, 13% of families have already left their villages.According to persons questioned, a bigger exodus is predicted. Alishing district is particularly vulnerable: insome localities a quarter or a third of their inhabitants have left. The situation of the tributary valleys of the River Kunar is also worrying: the deficit in irrigation water is in the order of 75% almost everywhere,areas cultivated in Spring have strongly decreased, wheat yields have fallen by 61%. The forced sale of animalsis greater here, particularly in Sarkano district, in the villages of Ganj gal and Sarkani, where the sale of livestock has been enormous. Nuristan (East) seems for the moment to be least affected by drought:It is a more irrigated area because it still benefits from themonsoon rains.All the indicators are better there than in the two other provinces. Selectively, the situation ismore serious: for example, in the village of Pounce (Wama district), where 50% of familieshave emigrated. 3. The forced sale of animals means, for the time being, that animal sales enable the needs of the families to be partially met. But the abundant supplyon offer in the markets, by making prices fall, also reduces their purchasingpower. This also means a loss of capital that it will be difficult to build up again quickly, thus prolonging the effectof the drought over several years. 4. Emigration of families due to drought already represents 5% of the populationof the areas studied, 13% in Laghman andmore in some districts. The village authorities point out that this phenomenon could spread rapidly in thenear future. 3 Analysis of the Main Indicators Availability of drinking water (see Table 1) The survey shows a deficit in drinkingwater in 75% of localities.In the majority of cases, the output this year is lower bymore than 50% compared to normal. Two villages have no water at all (4% of the sample). Villages supplied with springwater, the most numerous (81% of villages)are also the most affected: 82% of them suffer from lackof water. The villages using riverwater are only affected in 29% ofcases. The situation is more serious in Kunar(89% of villages witha deficit in drinking water) than in Laghman (82 %) and Nuristan(42 %). Availability of water for irrigation (see Table II) The scarcity of water for irrigation isgeneral in all districts. The deficit issevere: it is % of the normal output in 44% of villagesand the deficiency is total in 35% ofcases. There also, the areas that only havesprings available for irrigation (3/4 ofthe sample) are the most affected: 44% have less than'/ of the normal flow anda third are without water. In villages using rivers for irrigation,the figures are respectively 64% andalso a third without water. By province, one can observe importantdifferences: Nuristan seems least affected. 27% of villagessuffer from a shortage ofa quarter of the normal output, 27% of half, 36%of three -quarters and 9% haveno water. In Kunar, all villages havea deficit higher than two -thirds of normaloutput. 11% of them have no water for irrigation. The situation in Laghman province isthe most tragic: 94% ofareas studied have a deficit equal or higher than three-quarters of normal available output.In particular, 14 villages, i.e. 82% of the sample, haveno water. 4 Areas under cultivation (see Table III) Area cultivated in Autumn 1999 and harvested in April -May 2000 The effects of the drought were already appreciable last year. In 56% of villages studied, farmers have sown less than usual: in 79% of cases, cultivated areaswere lower by a half or more. Area cultivated in May and June 2000, to be harvested in September- October 2000 The reduction of areas sown has become more pronounced thisyear: in all villages (98 %), farmers have indicated to us a lowering of cultivated areas, of half or more in 85% of cases. Some villages have even indicated that the land has not been worked. We find here the differences between provinces that we have mentioned for the availability of irrigation water. The reduction of cultivated areas in the Spring is less in Nuristan than in Kunar and Laghman. It is especially in this last province that future harvests are mortgaged: in 14 out of 17 villages (82 %) surveyed, the families have not been able to sow! Change of cultivation (for produce less demanding in water) (see Table IV) 81% of villages have replaced traditional Spring crops by others, less demanding in water.In Kunar and Laghman provinces, maize is preferred to rice, in Nuristan, millet has sometimes been sown in place of maize. Yield of wheat cultivation harvested in May -June 2000, in relation toa normal year (see Table IV) Wheat yields show an average fall over the whole of the area studied of 65 %, from 105 ser /jerib to 37 ser /jerib (that is 3.670 t/ha to 1.295 t/ha). There is no significant difference between the villages using springs for irrigation and those using rivers. On the other hand, the differences between provinces are appreciable,as the table overleaf shows. They correspond to the shortage of irrigation water thatwe have commented on above: in Laghman, the average fall in yield is 83 %. Some villages have harvested practically nothing, in the districts of Alishing and Alingar. in Kunar, thé drop is 61% on average. The districts of Monawara and Sarkano are the most affected ( -78% and -81% respectively). 5 in Nuristan, the production deficit ison average 49 %. It is more appreciable in Wama, Want and Zanjigaldistricts ( -57 %, -53 %, -50 %) thanat Kamdish, situated further to the east ( -20 %). Wheat yield- harvest 2000 and a normal year Ser per ¡erib District Wheat yield 99 -00 Normal Difference Decreased Kunar Province Asmar 36 88 -52 -59% Islam dara 45 79 -33 -42% Monawara 23 105 -82 -78% Naray 38 81 -43 -53% Ningalam 43 86 -43 -50% Sarkano 16 84 -68 -81% Wata poor 54 79 -25 -32% Total Kunar 34 86 -52 -61% Laghman Province Alingar 20 130 -111 -85% Alishing 14 150 -136 -91% Dawlat shah 34 95 -61 -64% Nangaraj 13 120 -108 -90% Total Laghman 21 122 -101 -83% Nuristan Province Kamdish 48 60 -12 -20% Wama 62 143 -81 -57% Want 60 127 -67 -53% Zanjigal 67 133 -67 -50% Total Nuristan 59 116 - 57 -49% Total3 37 105 -68 -65% provinces Sale of animals and price ofmeat (see Table V) We have rapidly evaluatedthe impact of the droughton animal husbandry through two indicators: the numberof animals currentlyon the market compared with a normal year and theevolution of prices of animal sales.