AGAINST ALL ODDS? THE EFFECT OF ELECTORAL VIOLENCE ON THE POLITICAL PARTICIPATION OF CITIZENS: A CASE STUDY OF VOTERS IN NAIROBI Stephanie Plata 2016 AGAINST ALL ODDS? THE EFFECT OF ELECTORAL VIOLENCE ON THE POLITICAL PARTICIPATION OF CITIZENS: A CASE STUDY OF VOTERS IN NAIROBI by STEPHANIE PLATA (Student number 208094576) Submitted in fulfilment of the requirements of the degree of DOCTOR PHILOSOPHIAE CONFLICT TRANSFORMATION AND MANAGEMENT in the Faculty of Arts at the NELSON MANDELA METROPOLITAN UNIVERSITY SUPERVISOR: DR. G.J. BRADSHAW i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS To my twin brother Christopher. My gratitude for his love, encouragement and support throughout my study knows no bounds. To my whole family who always believed in me. To all my friends and colleagues, especially Ninnia and Claudia, for their tireless help and support. I owe you a lot. To my employer, GESIS – Leibniz-Institute for the Social Sciences, especially its former President, Prof. Dr. York Sure-Vetter. Your support contributed tremendously to the success of the study. To my supervisor, Prof. Dr. Gavin J. Bradshaw, who inspired me to further investigate into electoral conflict. To my NGO-contacts and interpreters who guided and supported me during my field work in Kenya. To my Kenyan interview partners. I dedicate this work to you. May your voices be heard. iii AGAINST ALL ODDS? THE EFFECT OF ELECTORAL VIOLENCE ON THE POLITICAL PARTICIPATION OF CITIZENS: A CASE STUDY OF VOTERS IN NAIROBI Table of contents 1 General Introduction .......................................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background to the Study ............................................................................................. 1 1.2 Problem Statement ....................................................................................................... 4 1.3 Research Questions ...................................................................................................... 5 1.4 Aims and Objectives to be Achieved .......................................................................... 5 1.5 Significance of the Study ............................................................................................. 7 1.6 Related Research ......................................................................................................... 9 1.7 Motivation for the Study ............................................................................................ 16 1.8 Limitations of the Study ............................................................................................ 17 2 Theoretical Background ................................................................................................... 19 2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 19 2.2 What is Political Participation? ................................................................................. 20 2.3 Theory of Human Empowerment .............................................................................. 23 2.4 Theory of Trauma Response ...................................................................................... 29 2.5 Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 31 3 Research Design, Methodology and Data Analysis ......................................................... 32 3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 32 3.2 Research Design ........................................................................................................ 32 3.3 Research Methodology .............................................................................................. 37 3.3.1 Data Collection ................................................................................................... 37 3.3.2 Sampling Procedures .......................................................................................... 39 3.3.3 Research Instrumentation ................................................................................... 43 3.3.4 Why Qualitative Research? ................................................................................ 45 iv 3.3.5 Quality in Qualitative Research ......................................................................... 47 3.4 Epistemological Approach ........................................................................................ 54 3.5 Sources of Data .......................................................................................................... 57 3.6 Case Selection ............................................................................................................ 58 3.7 Ethical Considerations ............................................................................................... 59 3.8 Data Analysis ............................................................................................................. 60 3.8.1 The Transcripts ................................................................................................... 63 3.8.2 Computer Assisted Analysis of Qualitative Data ............................................... 64 3.8.3 Conclusion .......................................................................................................... 64 4 The Democratization Process in Africa ........................................................................... 66 4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 66 4.2 Defining Democracy .................................................................................................. 66 4.3 Defining Democratization ......................................................................................... 72 4.4 The Role of Elections for Democracy: Contradictory Findings ................................ 73 4.5 The Democratization Process in Africa in the 1990s: Between Autocracy and Democracy ........................................................................................................................... 76 4.6 The Limits of Democratization in Sub-Saharan Africa: Developments since 2000 . 83 4.7 Conclusion ................................................................................................................. 92 5 Electoral Conflict Explained—What Do We Know? ...................................................... 94 5.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 94 5.2 What is Social Conflict? ............................................................................................ 94 5.3 Protracted Social Conflict .......................................................................................... 99 5.4 Political Conflict ...................................................................................................... 100 5.5 Towards a Definition of Violent Electoral Conflict ................................................ 101 5.5.1 Causes of Violent Electoral Conflict ................................................................ 106 5.5.2 The Consequences of Violent Electoral Conflict in Africa .............................. 113 5.5.3 The Quantitative Dimension of Violent Electoral Conflict in Africa .............. 114 v 5.5.4 Conclusion ........................................................................................................ 118 6 Case Study: The Democratic Republic of Kenya ........................................................... 119 6.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................. 119 6.2 Kenya – A Suitable Case Study for Analyzing Violent Electoral Conflict ............. 120 6.3 A short Introduction to the Political System of Kenya ............................................ 121 6.4 Kenya’s Democracy After the Implementation of the New Constitution ............... 128 6.5 Conclusion and Implications ................................................................................... 135 6.6 Conflict in Kenya ..................................................................................................... 136 6.6.1 General Remarks .............................................................................................. 136 6.6.2 Social Conflict .................................................................................................. 137 6.6.3 Violent Electoral Conflict in Kenya ................................................................. 149 6.7 Kenya’s Elections at a Glance ................................................................................. 166 6.7.1 The 1992 Elections ........................................................................................... 166 6.7.2 The 1997 Elections ........................................................................................... 167 6.7.3 The 2002 Elections ........................................................................................... 169 6.7.4 The 2007 Elections ........................................................................................... 170 6.7.5 The 2013 Elections ........................................................................................... 172 6.7.6 Conclusion .......................................................................................................