FINAL REPORT The Case for Space 2015 The impact of space on the UK economy CASE STUDIES A study for the Satellite Applications Catapult, Innovate UK, UKspace and the UK Space Agency July 2015 About London Economics London Economics (LE) is a leading independent economic consultancy, headquartered in London, with a dedicated team of professional economists specialised in the application of best practice economic and financial analysis to the space sector. As a firm, our reputation for independent analysis and client‐driven, world‐class and academically robust economic research has been built up over 25 years. Drawing on our solid understanding of the economics of space, expertise in economic analysis and best practice industry knowledge, our space team has extensive experience of providing independent analysis and innovative solutions to advise clients in the public, private and third sectors on the economic fundamentals, commercial potential of existing, developing and speculative market opportunities to reduce uncertainty and guide decision‐makers in this most challenging of operating environments. All consultants of our space team are highly‐qualified economists with extensive experience in applying a wide variety of analytical techniques to the space sector, including: Insightful and accurate market analysis and demand forecasting; Analysis of industrial structure, strategy and competitive forces; New technology adoption modelling; Estimation of public utility benefits; Opportunity prioritisation and targeting to maximise exploitation of investment; Sophisticated statistical analysis (econometrics, regression); Economic and financial modelling, including: Cost‐Benefit Analysis (CBA), cost effectiveness analysis, Value for Money (VfM), impact assessment, policy evaluation, business case development, cash flow and sustainability modelling. Head Office: Somerset House, New Wing, Strand, London WC2R 1LA, United Kingdom. w: londoneconomics.co.uk/aerospace e: [email protected] t: +44 (0)20 3701 7700 : @LE_Aerospace Acknowledgements We would like to acknowledge the useful guidance and feedback provided by the Satellite Applications Catapult, Innovate UK, UKspace and the UK Space Agency throughout this research. We would also like to thank all of the stakeholders consulted for their time and informative responses. Responsibility for the contents of this report remains with London Economics. Authors Greg Sadlier, Associate Director, +44 (0)20 3701 7707, [email protected] Rasmus Flytkjær, Senior Economic Consultant, +44 (0)20 3701 7717, [email protected] Maike Halterbeck, Economic Consultant, +44 (0)20 3701 7724, [email protected] Viktoriya Peycheva, Economic Consultant, +44 (0)20 3701 7719, [email protected] Laura Koch, Economic Analyst, +44 (0)20 3701 7718, [email protected] Wherever possible London Economics uses paper sourced from sustainably managed forests using production processes that meet the EU eco‐label requirements. Copyright © 2015 London Economics. Except for the quotation of short passages for the purposes of criticism or review, no part of this document may be reproduced without permission. London Economics Ltd is a Limited Company registered in England and Wales with registered number 04083204 and registered offices at Somerset House, New Wing, Strand, London WC2R 1LA. 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Table of Contents Page 1 Case studies of R&D demonstrators 1 2 Case studies of end‐user benefits 3 2.1 Introduction 3 2.2 Security, safety & resilience 4 2.3 Game‐changing services 9 2.4 Climate and environmental services 11 2.5 More efficient public sector services 15 2.6 e‐connectivity 19 2.7 Space solutions for smart government 27 3 Case studies of education, exploration and space science 29 3.1 Introduction 29 3.2 Science, Technology, Engineering and Maths (STEM) education and careers 30 3.3 Space exploration beyond earth orbit 31 3.4 Space science 34 4 Case studies of future prospects 35 4.1 Low‐cost access to space 35 References 37 Index of Case Studies 42 London Economics The Case for Space 2015 i 1 | Case studies of R&D demonstrators 1 Case studies of R&D demonstrators Box 1 TechDemoSat‐1 – a collaborative satellite to demonstrate innovative UK space technologies for scientific and commercial applications TechDemoSat‐1 (TDS‐1), produced by the UK’s Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd (SSTL), is a compact, satellite test‐bed for in‐orbit technologies, and represents collaboration between industry and academia from across the UK. TDS‐1 was based on one of SSTL’s existing satellite designs (the SSTL‐ 150) and was contracted by InnovateUK and part‐funded by SEEDA1, which was involved at the early stage. SSTL claims to control a 40% share of the global small satellite export market and to have 21 2 satellites currently being manufactured. TechDemoSat‐1 in orbit, artists’ illustration At a size of roughly 1 cubic metre, and a mass of 150 kg, TechDemoSat‐1 had a total production cost of less than £10m.3 TDS‐1 was financed in part through a £3.0m funding injection by the Technology Strategy Board (now Innovate UK) and £0.5m from the South East England Development Agency (SEEDA), whilst SSTL provided additional investment of their own for research purposes. The satellite carries 8 external payloads, self‐funded through the respective payload providers, an all‐British collection of universities and commercial organisations which answered SSTL’s invitation to participate in 2009. Launched in July 2014 on a Russian Soyuz rocket (brokered by Commercial Space Technologies ‐ CST), TDS‐1 has been continuously returning payload data since having successfully passed its designated in‐orbit Launch and Early Operations Phase (LEOP) and will continue to do so for the rest of its projected 3 year lifespan. Some of the results from payloads on board TDS‐1 are now being announced4, marking the first point at which each of these payloads start to deliver downstream benefits. Many of the benefits can be directly derived from the performance of the satellite payloads, for example: The Highly Miniaturised Radiation Monitor (HMRM), built by Rutherford Appleton Laboratory, will be commercialised after being tested5, and has been developed for future use on ESA missions. The De‐Orbit Sail, by Cranfield University, attempts to provide proof‐of‐concept for a de‐orbit system for small satellites. CubeSAT ACS, supplied by Satellite Services Ltd, attempts to improve on attitude determination and control subsystems for CubeSats. Further, SSTL claim TDS‐1 will “Inspire, Train and Retain”, with these more intangible benefits coming in the form of scientific inspiration for schools across the UK, the training of students in academia and engineers in industry with data from TDS‐1 payloads, and British engineers being retained to continue working on new developments.6 Finally, the very fact that this mission is a technology demonstrator opens up the possibility for further, follow‐up projects, either demonstrating other technologies, or continuing the legacy that TDS‐1 has started to create. Source: London Economics based on secondary research and stakeholder consultations 1 South East England Development Agency. 2 “Changing the Economics of Space” SSTL, found here: http://www.sstl.co.uk/getdoc/79ada3f1‐76c0‐49f0‐8f21‐ade2c262677c 3 “How they were funded” – SSTL presentation http://digitalcommons.usu.edu/smallsat/2013/all2013/4/ 4 The National Oceanography Centre hosted a one‐day workshop in March 2015 to present the first results for ocean surface wind and waves monitoring with GNSS Reflectrometry on TechDemoSat‐1. http://www.satnews.com/story.php?number=102772070 5 HMRM Future Work, Slide 38, Presentation delivered May 2012 ‐ https://indico.esa.int/indico/event/14/contribution/9/material/slides/0.pdf 6 Slide 7, TechDemoSat‐1 ‐ https://www.stfc.ac.uk/RALSpace/resources/PDF/ASC_Presentation_13.pdf London Economics The Case for Space 2015 1 1 | Case studies of R&D demonstrators Box 2 UKube‐1, the UK Space Agency’s first mission – a technology demonstration ‘CubeSat’ nanosatellite jointly funded by Clyde Space UKube‐1 was the first mission commissioned by the UK Space Agency after its formation in 2010, and is a CubeSat – a satellite comprising one or more 10x10x10 cm blocks (1U). UKube‐1 has dimensions of 30x10x10 cm (3U) and will showcase new technologies for UK industry and academia. The mission was co‐ funded by InnovateUK. Designed and built by Clyde Space of Scotland – themselves a CubeSat success story with over 40% of CubeSat missions using hardware developed by Clyde Space7 – UKube‐1 is envisaged to be the pioneer mission for the UK Space Agency’s CubeSat UKube‐1 in orbit, artists impression programme. The aim for future missions is to establish a development and launch frequency of one CubeSat every 18 months, thus establishing a constant stream of CubeSat production and enabling British engineers to benefit from “hands‐on, real‐time training”.8 UKube‐1 was successfully launched in July 2014 on a Russian Soyuz rocket brokered by London‐based Commercial Space Technologies (CST), and along with the engineering benefits mentioned above, it will increase capabilities for education and commercial activities, with payloads including9,10: TOPCAT – A University of Bath experiment that will use GPS signals to measure weather conditions in space. Janus – Airbus Defence and Space designed this