This is the author's Post-print version (final draft post-refereeing as accepted for publication by the journal). The definitive, peer-reviewed and edited version of this article is published as: Kleinhans, R. & W. van der Laan Bouma-Doff (2008). On priority and progress: forced residential relocation and housing chances in Haaglanden, the Netherlands. Housing Studies, vol. 23(4), pp. 565-587. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/02673030802101641 On Priority and Progress. Forced Residential Relocation and Housing Chances in Haaglanden, the Netherlands. Reinout Kleinhans and Wenda van der Laan Bouma-Doff Delft University of Technology, OTB Research Institute for Housing, Urban and Mobility Studies. Email: [email protected] ABSTRACT There is a wide interest in the effects of forced relocation in the context of urban restructuring. This interest is also inspired by debates on gentrification and displacement. The prevailing idea is that especially the lowest income groups suffer from displacement in terms of their housing quality and increased rents. In addition, growing shares of forced movers are assumed to harm the housing opportunities of other house seekers, while competing within the social rented sector. Although several studies deal with the consequences of forced relocation, a broader perspective on housing chances is currently lacking. Moreover, most studies are qualitative, whereas a larger-scale quantitative analysis is needed to test assumptions mentioned above. This paper addresses these matters by analysing housing allocation data of the Haaglanden in the Netherlands and two cross-sectional surveys among forced movers in the region’s central city: The Hague. Findings indicate that housing chances for both forced and regular house seekers have not declined substantially since 2000. Moreover, most forced movers experienced dwelling progress, partly thanks to the design of the housing allocation model. However, low-educated, as well as and middle- and higher income households less often report dwelling progress. Explanations for these findings are provided. KEY WORDS: displacement, forced relocation, social housing, dwelling progress, urban restructuring, The Netherlands 1. Introduction In many Dutch cities, early post-war neighbourhoods, in which low-cost social rented apartments often dominate the housing stock, are subject to considerable interventions. Middle-class and higher-income households lack attractive housing career opportunities and often leave, whereas low-income house seekers are highly dependent on these neighbourhoods. This results in selective out- and in-migration of different income groups (MVROM, 1997, 2000; Van Kempen & Priemus, 2002). In 1997, the Dutch government launched a highly ambitious restructuring program to tackle the problems of early post-war neighbourhoods. Demolition, sale or upgrading of social rented housing and new construction of more expensive owner- occupied dwellings create more variety in the housing stock. Until 2010, almost 60,000 social rented houses in prioritised areas will be demolished and replaced with new constructed houses, mostly owner-occupied (Dekker, 2006). Just as many households are directly affected: either they are forced to move out of the area due to demolition of their own house, or they succeed in moving to other social housing in the neighbourhood, whether or not upgraded or newly constructed. Because of the significant impact of forced relocation on the life of many residents, it is a recurring theme in the urban renewal and gentrification literature (e.g. Allen, 2000; Atkinson, 2004; Buron et al., 2002; Fried, 1967; Gans, 1991; Goetz, 2002; Rubenstein, 1988). In the gentrification literature, displacement appears as a synonym of forced relocation, which generally occurs when any household is forced to move from its residence by conditions affecting the dwelling or its immediate surroundings, such as demolition, ownership conversion of rental units and rent increases (Grier & Grier, 1978; LeGates & Hartman, 1981). Most studies on gentrification identify displacement as a significant problem (see Atkinson, 2004 for an overview), although Freeman and Braconi (2004) recently provided contrasting evidence that low-income residents in New York were less likely to become displaced from gentrified areas than expected. Still, the common premise is that low-income groups suffer most from displacement, in terms of the quality of their dwelling, increased rents and fewer housing opportunities in general. Exactly those issues are important in Dutch policy debate. Until recently, the knowledge of the effects of forced relocation was quite limited. Several evaluation studies have yielded more insights (City of The Hague, 2001; Kleinhans, 2003; Leveling & Vos, 2004; Steunpunt Wonen, 2003; Wolf & 2 Vriens, 2006). A common finding is the importance of the residents’ pre-relocation opinion of the forced move. For example, already existing moving plans seem positively related to resident attitudes after forced relocation. Moreover, forced movers with specific characteristics appear to have more options than others, as a result of specific aspects of the Dutch choice-based letting system for social housing allocation. The same institutional context that triggers forced relocation can strongly moderate its negative effects. In this paper, we will show that not all forced movers perceive forced relocation as a purely negative event. Many benefit from several compensation mechanisms in the relocation process. This is at odds with the mainstream literature on displacement, adding an important precondition of residents’ options within the context of the housing market. Therefore, this issue is relevant for any situation in which a choice-based letting system for social rented housing faces the challenge of forced relocation due to regeneration schemes, for example in major Dutch and British cities. Simultaneously, local policymakers are worried that the compensation mechanisms for forced movers and their growing shares among house seekers increase the high pressure on urban housing markets (VROM-Raad, 2002, p. 69; 2006, p. 86). Increased competition between forced movers and regular, non-urgent house seekers may harm the housing opportunities of especially the latter group (cf. Kullberg, 2002, p. 559-560; Van Kempen & Priemus, 2002, p. 247). However, a few studies actually looked into the longer-term effects on housing chances. Moreover, most studies that examine the risks of forced relocation are explorative of nature, whereas more quantitative studies are needed to test the prevailing assumptions. This paper aims to partly fill these gaps with quantitative analyses of housing allocation data and two identical cross-sectional surveys among two ‘cohorts’ of forced relocation movers (2001 and 2004). Our research question is twofold. First, does the supposedly growing share of forced movers go together with decreasing housing chances of various house seekers in the social rented sector, especially regular non-urgent house seekers? Second, what are the experiences of forced movers? And in particular: to what extent are perceptions of dwelling progress connected with respondents’ pre-relocation attitudes and their individual characteristics? Our study area is a major urban area in the Netherlands: the Haaglanden. Here, one of the biggest urban restructuring programmes in the Netherlands is currently in progress. Moreover, crucial data from different sources 3 are available here. Not only can we analyse regional allocation data, but also the City of The Hague has conducted identical surveys among relocated residents in different years. With these data, we analyse residents’ perceptions of dwelling progress. This paper is structured as follows. After the introduction, we briefly describe the literature on forced relocation and displacement. The third section explains housing allocation and relocation policies in the context of the Dutch urban restructuring programme. Section four analyses the long-term housing chances of different categories of movers in the Haaglanden region. Here, the central concept is the probability of success, i.e. the chance that a household acquired a vacant social rented house in a certain year. The fifth section switches to the resident survey and describes the data, measures and results. Finally, conclusions and recommendations for relocation policy are presented in section six. 2. Forced Relocation and Displacement in the Literature As already mentioned, forced relocation and displacement appear highly synonymous to each other. Displacement generally occurs where “any household is forced to move from its residence by conditions which affect the dwelling or its immediate surroundings, and which: 1. are beyond the household’s reasonable ability to control or prevent; 2. occur despite the household’s having met all previously imposed conditions of occupancy; 3. make continued occupancy by that household impossible, hazardous, or unaffordable” (Grier & Grier, 1978, p. 8; cf. LeGates & Hartman, 1981, p. 214). As this definition does not include any reference to housing policy or market forces, it is equally applicable to both gentrification and urban renewal. In some countries the question now emerges whether gentrification is becoming a deliberate strategy in urban regeneration policies (see e.g. Atkinson, 2004, p. 107; Hackworth & Smith, 2001; Uitermark et al., 2007). Residential displacement is one of the primary dangers mentioned by those concerned