THE NEW ORDER OF WASHINGTON A Post Election Analysis and Outlook of the 115TH Congress and 45th Presidential Administration Presented by Jane Campbell © 2016 National Development Council All rights reserved. Version: October 12, 2016 1 The Big RED elephant in the Room… 2 Washington in 2017 Mitch McConnell Donald J. Trump 45th President of United Paul Ryan Senate Majority Leader States Speaker of the House 3 GOP Dominance at all levels of Government GOP Governors 34 DEM Governors 15 GOP Total Control 25 DEM Total Control 5 Mixed : 20 4 2016 Electoral Map Projected Popular Vote Margin: 61,300,000 and growing Hillary Clinton by 1.25% 5 Electoral Maps from Prior 3 cycles 6 45th President of United States Excerpts from President-elect Trump’s Victory Speech 11/9/16 • "Now it's time for America to bind the wounds of division, have to get together. To all Republicans and Democrats and independents across this nation, I say it is time for us to come together as one united people. It's time. I pledge to every citizen of our land that I will be president for all Americans, and this is so important to me.” • “great movement made up of millions of hard-working men and women, who love their country and want a better, brighter future for themselves and for their families” • "Working together, we will begin the urgent task of rebuilding our nation and renewing the American dream. Every single American will have the opportunity to realize his or her fullest potential. The forgotten men and women of our country will be forgotten no longer.” 7 45th President of United States Excerpts from President-elect Trump’s Victory Speech 11/9/16 • "We are going to fix our inner cities and rebuild our highways, bridges, tunnels, airports, schools, hospitals. We're going to rebuild our infrastructure, which will become, by the way, second to none. And we will put millions of our people to work as we rebuild it.” • "For those who have chosen not to support me in the past, of which there were a few people, I'm reaching out to you for your guidance and your help so that we can work together and unify our great country.” 8 45th President of United States Trump Transition Team: Lead by NJ Gov. Chris Christie – the following will lead the efforts on the Agency Level • Treasury – David Malpass, ran in • SBA- Christine Toretti, CEO of NY Senate GOP 2010, Dept. Asst. S.W. Jack Drilling Co. & RNC Sec. of Treasury Ronald Reagan Committeewoman & Dept. Asst. Sec State Bush 41. • Labor- Steve Hart, Chairman and • Commerce – Ray Washburne, CEO Williams & Jensen Dallas based investor and Vice Chair Trump Victory Committee • DOT- Shirley Ybarra- Former VA Sec of Transportation. • Indep. Fin. Agencies –Paul Atkins, SEC Commissioner 2002- • Agriculture- Michael Torrey, 2008 Bush 43 Principal Michael Torrey & Associates, Food & Ag lobbyist • HUD – Pamela Patenaude, HUD Asst. Sec, Comm. Planning and • www.greatagain.gov Dev. Bush 43, HUD-WH Liason • @transition2017 Reagan - Former Sen. Scott Brown rumored aswell 9 President Trump Day 1 Plan • President-elect Trump has both a DAY1 plan and a 100 DAY PLAN. • DAY 1 Plan – January 20th 2017 , 3 Phases • Clean up corruption and special interest collusion in Washington, D.C. • Restore security and the constitutional rule of Law • Protect domestic workers 10 President Trump 100 day Plan • Legislative 100 day plan 1. Middle Class Tax Relief And Simplification Act 2. End The Offshoring Act 3. American Energy & Infrastructure Act 4. School Choice And Education Opportunity Act 5. Repeal and Replace Obamacare Act 6. Affordable Childcare and Eldercare Act 7. End Illegal Immigration Act 8. Restoring Community Safety Act 9. Restoring National Security Act 10. Clean up Corruption in Washington Act 11 United States Senate of 115th Congress Retiring: Barbara Boxer (D-CA) Barbara Mikulski (D-MD) Harry Reid (D-NV) David Vitter (R-LA) Incumbents Surviving Dan Coats (R-IN) Pat Toomey (R-PA) Michael Bennett (D-CO) Roy Blunt (R-MO) Defeated: Ron Johnson (R-WI) Mark Kirk (R-IL) Richard Burr (R-NC) Marco Rubio (R-FL) Newly Elected: Tammy Duckworth (D-IL) Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) Catherine Cortez Mastro (D-NV) Todd Young (R-IN) Maggie Hassan (D - NH) Outstanding Races LA: John Kennedy (R) and Foster Campbell (D) advance to December run-off election. Kennedy is favored. Final Senate Projection: Democrats 48, Republicans 52 12 Senate Leadership • Republicans Majority: McConnell (R- Kentucky) is expected to be reelected by the majority of the GOP caucus as Majority leader. Prior to the elections when current Minority Leader Reid announced his intentions to retire at the end of his term, New York Senator Chuck Schumer was already primed to take the helm as the next Democratic McConnell Schumer leader in the new Congress. Majority Leader Minority Leader Current Mitch McConnell(Ky.) Harry Reid (Nv) Republican majority McConnell Chuck Schumer (NY) 13 Senate Appropriations Committee • Republicans Majority: Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) would remain chairman. Patty Murray (D-Wash.) expressed interest in succeeding Barbara Mikulski (D-Md.) as the panel’s top Democrat, though she could seek a leadership role. Dick Cochran Murray Durbin (D-Ill.) or another Democrat could also take the position. • Other notes: Murray’s move to Appropriations from the Health, Education, Labor & Pensions Committee could have a domino effect on several other committees Durbin Chairman Ranking member Current Thad Cochran (Miss.) Barbara Mikulski (Md.) Republican majority Cochran Patty Murray (Wash.) 14 Senate Finance Committee • Republican Majority : Orrin Hatch (R- Utah) is expected to remain as Chair. Ranking Member Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), who coasted through reelection easily Tuesday would retain his position as well. Hatch Wyden Chairman Ranking member Current Orrin Hatch (Utah) Ron Wyden (Ore.) Republican majority Orrin Hatch (Utah) Ron Wyden (Ore.) 15 Senate Small Business Committee • Republican Majority : Jim Risch (R-Idaho) could succeed retiring chairman David Vitter (R-La.). Ranking Member Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.) would retain her position, barring changes elsewhere. If Risch moves to a different committee, Risch Shaheen Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) could be next in line. • Other notes: Heidi Heitkamp (D-N.D.) could become the top Democrat if Shaheen moves to the Foreign Relations Committee following a Ben Cardin (D-Md.) shift to Environment & Public Works. Rubio Heitkamp Chairman Ranking member Current David Vitter (La.) Jeanne Shaheen (N.H.) Republican majority Jim Risch (Idaho) Shaheen 16 Senate Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Committee • Republican Majority : Mike Crapo (R- Idaho) is next in line to become chairman, because Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) is term- limited. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) would probably continue serving as the panel's top Democrat. Crapo Brown Chairman Ranking member Current Richard Shelby (Ala.) Sherrod Brown (Ohio) Republican majority Mike Crapo (Idaho) Brown 17 U.S. House of Representatives 115th Congress • Republicans 241 • (239 decided + 2 likely wins) • Democrats: 194 • (193 decided + 1 likely win in CA- 7) House Projections: Democrats Pickup 7 however Republicans hold on to majority . 18 House Leadership • Republicans Majority: The only sure bet going into Tuesday was that the House of Representatives would remain in GOP control. Nancy Pelosi will undoubtedly be reelected as the leader of the Democratic caucus. However question exist whether the Speaker’s gavel will continue to reside with Paul Ryan – who has had a contentious Ryan Pelosi relationship with now President-elect Trump and who’s own members (HFC) might prevent him from garnering the votes needed for election. Leadership elections will take place Nov. 15th. Speaker of the House Minority Leader Current Paul Ryan (Wis.) Nancy Pelosi (Ca.) Republican majority Ryan ??? Nancy Pelosi (Ca.) 19 House Appropriations Committee • Republicans: Hal Rogers (R-Ky.) is term limited and will seek the top spot on the panel’s Defense Subcommittee. He’ll probably be succeeded by current Defense Subcommittee Chairman Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-N.J.) or Ag-FDA Subcommittee Chairman Robert Aderholt (R- Ala.). Frelinghuysen Lowey • Democrats: Nita Lowey (D-N.Y.) will probably retain her position as ranking member. Other notes: Rogers would face off against Kay Granger • (R-Texas) for the Defense Subcommittee. Aderholt Republican chairman Ranking Democrat Current Hal Rogers (Ky.) Nita Lowey (N.Y.) 115th Congress Rodney Frelinghuysen (N.J.) Lowey or Robert Aderholt (Ala.) 20 House Committees with NO likely Changes Committee Republican Ranking Democrat chairman Agriculture Michael Conaway (Texas) Collin Peterson (Minn.) Armed Services Mac Thornberry (Texas) Adam Smith (Wash.) Ethics Charlie Dent (Pa.) Linda Sánchez (Calif.)* Financial Services Jeb Hensarling Maxine Waters (Calif.) (Texas) Foreign Affairs Ed Royce (Calif.) Eliot Engel (N.Y.) Homeland Security Michael McCaul (Texas) Bennie G. Thompson (Miss.) Intelligence Devin Nunes (Calif.) Adam Schiff (Calif.) Judiciary Bob Goodlatte (Va.) John Conyers (Mich.) Natural Resources Rob Bishop (Utah) Raúl Grijalva (Ariz.) Oversight & Government Reform Jason Chaffetz (Utah) Elijah Cummings (Md.) Rules Pete Sessions (Texas) Louise Slaughter (N.Y.) Science, Space & Technology Lamar Smith (Texas) Eddie Bernice Johnson (Texas) Small Business Steve Chabot (Ohio) Nydia Velázquez (N.Y.) Ways & Means Kevin Brady (Texas) Sander Levin (Mich.) 21 Question & Answers 22 Contact NDC’s Washington Office Jane Campbell – Director [email protected] Ken Baker – Policy Associate [email protected] 1100 H Street NW, Suite 1200 Washington, D.C. 2005 www.ndconline.org 23.