Jernbaneverket Norwegian High Speed Railway Assessment Project Contract 5: Market Analysis Subject 1: Demand Forecasting Final Report 04/03/2011 (With additional information) /Market Analysis Demand Forecasting Final Report_UPDATED_040311.docx Contract 5, Subject 1: Demand Forecasting 2 Notice This document and its contents have been prepared and are intended solely for Jernbaneverket’s information and use in relation to The Norwegian High Speed Rail Assessment Project. WS Atkins International Ltd assumes no responsibility to any other party in respect of or arising out of or in connection with this document and/or its contents. Document History DOCUMENT REF: Market Analysis Demand Forecasting JOB NUMBER: 5096833 Final Report_UPDATED_040311.docx Revision Purpose Description Originated Checked Reviewed Authorised Date 1 Skeleton of Final Report MH LMG JD MH 29/10/10 2 Interim Report TH/JM LMG MH WL 12/01/11 3 Draft Final Report TH/JM LMG MH WL 02/02/11 4 Final Report TH AB MH WL 18/02/11 5 Additional Information TH MH JD MH 04/03/11 5096833/Market Analysis Demand Forecasting Final Report_UPDATED_040311.docx Contract 5, Subject 1: Demand Forecasting 3 Contract 5: Market Analysis Subject: Demand Forecasting Final Report 5096833/Market Analysis Demand Forecasting Final Report_UPDATED_040311.docx Contract 5, Subject 1: Demand Forecasting 4 Table of contents Executive Summary 10 1 Introduction 16 1.1 Background 16 1.2 Overall Context of the Market Analysis Contract 17 1.3 Purpose of Subject 1: Demand Potential for HSR in Norway 17 1.4 This Report 18 2 Current Travel Markets 19 2.1 Introduction 19 2.2 Size of Existing Travel Markets 19 2.3 Comparison of Services 40 2.4 International Benchmarking 52 2.5 Key Overall Conclusions 57 3 Future ‘Do Minimum’ Travel Market 58 3.1 Introduction 58 3.2 Overview of Future Year Forecasting Approach – NTM5 matrices 58 3.3 Future Year „Do Minimum‟ Demand Growth 62 3.4 Comparison of Medium Term Forecasts: NTM5 versus Transport Operators 70 3.5 Conclusions 72 4 HSR Demand and Revenue Forecasts 73 4.1 Introduction 73 4.2 Approach to demand and revenue forecasting 73 4.3 Traffic forecasts on national corridors 77 4.4 Oslo – Bergen corridor 78 4.5 Bergen/Stavanger – Oslo corridor (Haukeli route – Y shaped route) 89 4.6 Stavanger – Bergen corridor (Haugesund route) 94 4.7 Stavanger – Kristiansand – Oslo corridor 98 4.8 Trondheim – Oslo corridor 109 4.9 Oslo – Stockholm corridor 121 4.10 Oslo – Gothenburg corridor 130 5 Conclusions 136 5.1 Introduction 136 5.2 Summary of Current Travel Markets 136 5.3 Future (Do Minimum) Travel Market 136 5.4 Commentary on demand and revenue forecasts 137 5.5 Recommendations for Phase 3 141 5096833/Market Analysis Demand Forecasting Final Report_UPDATED_040311.docx Contract 5, Subject 1: Demand Forecasting 5 List of Tables Table 2.1 – Total annual demand for key corridors in Norway for main transport modes (2010) 23 Table 2.2 – Annual business demand for key corridors in Norway for main transport modes (2010) 26 Table 2.3 – Annual leisure demand for key corridors in Norway for main transport modes (2010) 27 Table 2.4 – Top ten ticketed tourist attractions in Norway (2007) 35 Table 2.5 – Top ten free tourist attractions in Norway (2006) 35 Table 2.6 – Summary of rail level of service in Trondheim corridor (2010) 41 Table 2.7 – Summary of rail level of service in Bergen corridor (2010) 41 Table 2.8 – Summary of rail level of service in Kristiansand-Stavanger corridor (2010) 42 Table 2.9 – Summary of rail level of service in Gothenburg corridor (2010) 42 Table 2.10 – Summary of rail level of service in Stockholm corridor (2010) 43 Table 2.11 – Summary of local rail services in Norway 43 Table 2.12 – Summary of coach level of service in Trondheim corridor (2010) 44 Table 2.13 – Summary of coach level of service in Bergen corridor (2010) 45 Table 2.14 – Summary of coach level of service in Kristiansand-Stavanger corridor (2010) 45 Table 2.15 – Summary of coach level of service in Bergen-Stavanger corridor (2010) 45 Table 2.16 – Summary of coach level of service in Gothenburg corridor (2010) 46 Table 2.17 – Summary of coach level of service in Stockholm corridor (2010) 46 Table 2.18 – Summary of ferry level of service in Bergen-Stavanger corridor (2010) 47 Table 2.19 – Summary of air level of service on key routes within Norway and to Sweden (2010) 47 Table 2.20 – Access to key airports in Norway and Sweden (2010) 48 Table 2.21 – Summary of 2010 service frequency on key corridors 49 Table 2.22 – Summary of 2010 fastest journey times on key corridors (hr:min) 49 Table 2.23 – Summary of 2010 range of fares on key corridors (NOK) 50 Table 2.24 – Size of HSR markets in other European countries (2008) 52 Table 2.25 – Market share of HSR and air on key routes in other European countries (2008) 53 Table 2.26 – Summary of level of service on HSR in Sweden (2010) 53 Table 2.27 – Summary of level of service on HSR in France (2010) 54 Table 2.28 – Summary of level of service on HSR in Germany (2010) 54 Table 2.29 – Summary of level of service on HSR in Spain (2010) 55 Table 2.30 – Summary of level of service on HSR in the UK (2010) 56 Table 3.1 – Population projections index – Statistics Norway (SSB) 59 Table 3.2 – NSB‟s future rail demand indices: 2009-2017 (selected years) 70 Table 3.3 – Comparison of medium-term rail demand growth rates 2010-2018 71 Table 3.4 – Comparison of medium-term air growth rates 2010-2018 71 Table 4.1 – Representation of Changes in Supply in NTM5B 74 Table 4.2 – HSR / Classic Corridor Level of Service by Scenario 76 Table 4.3 – Summary of HSR Routes and Scenarios tested 77 Table 4.4 – Corridor Demand by Mode and Purpose (Scenarios A and B1) 79 Table 4.5 – Rail demand by trip type and exogenous growth (Scenario A 2024 to 2043) 80 Table 4.6 – Impact of Scenario B1 (additional rail journeys over Do Minimum 2024, 2043) 81 Table 4.7 – Summary of HSR Demand and Revenue: Scenario C Oslo – Bergen (Hallingdal route via Hønefoss, Gol and Voss) 2024 81 Table 4.8 – HSR Demand by Origin/Destination type: Scenario C Oslo – Bergen (Hallingdal route via Hønefoss, Gol and Voss) 2024 82 Table 4.9 – Boardings by station Scenario C Oslo – Bergen (Hallingdal route via Hønefoss, Gol and Voss) 2024 82 Table 4.10 – Summary of HSR Demand and Revenue: Scenario D Oslo – Bergen (via Voss) 2024 85 Table 4.11 – HSR Demand by Origin/Destination type: Scenario D Oslo – Bergen (via Voss) 2024 85 5096833/Market Analysis Demand Forecasting Final Report_UPDATED_040311.docx Contract 5, Subject 1: Demand Forecasting 6 Table 4.12 – Boardings by station: Scenario D Oslo – Bergen (via Voss) 2024 86 Table 4.13 – Summary of HSR Demand and Revenue: Scenario D Oslo – Bergen/Stavanger (Haukeli route non-stop) 2024 89 Table 4.14 – HSR Demand by Origin/Destination type: Scenario D Oslo – Bergen/Stavanger (Haukeli route non-stop) 2024 90 Table 4.15 – Boardings by station: Scenario D Oslo – Bergen/Stavanger (Haukeli route non-stop) 2024 90 Table 4.16 – Summary of HSR Demand and Revenue: Scenario D Stavanger – Bergen (via Haugesund) 2024 94 Table 4.17 – HSR Demand by Origin/Destination type: Scenario D Stavanger – Bergen (via Haugesund) 2024 95 Table 4.18 – Boardings by station: Scenario D Stavanger – Bergen (via Haugesund) 2024 95 Table 4.19 – Corridor Demand by Mode and Purpose (Scenarios A and B2) 99 Table 4.20 – Rail demand by trip type and exogenous growth (Scenario A 2024 to 2043) 100 Table 4.21 – Growth over Scenario A – Scenario B2 101 Table 4.22 – Summary of HSR Demand and Revenue: Scenario C Oslo –Stavanger (via Drammen, Porsgrunn, Arendal, Kristiansand) 2024 101 Table 4.23 – HSR Demand by Origin/Destination type: Scenario C Oslo –Stavanger (via Drammen, Porsgrunn, Arendal, Kristiansand) 2024 102 Table 4.24 – Boardings by station: Scenario C Oslo –Stavanger (via Drammen, Porsgrunn, Arendal, Kristiansand) 2024 102 Table 4.25 – Summary of HSR Demand and Revenue: Scenario D Oslo – Stavanger (via Porsgrunn and Kristiansand) 2024 105 Table 4.26 – HSR Demand by Origin/Destination type: Scenario D Oslo – Stavanger (via Porsgrunn and Kristiansand) 2024 105 Table 4.27 – Boardings by station: Scenario D Oslo – Stavanger (via Porsgrunn and Kristiansand) 2024 106 Table 4.28 – Corridor Demand by Mode and Purpose (Scenarios A and B3) 110 Table 4.29 – Rail Demand by Sector (Scenarios A and B3) 111 Table 4.30 – Growth Over Scenario A – Scenario B3 112 Table 4.31 – Summary of HSR Demand and Revenue: Scenario C Oslo – Trondheim (via Gardermoen, Hamar, Lillehammer and Otta) 2024 112 Table 4.32 – HSR Demand by Origin/Destination type: Scenario C Oslo – Trondheim (via Gardermoen, Hamar, Lillehammer and Otta) 2024 113 Table 4.33 – Boardings by station: Scenario C Oslo – Trondheim (via Gardermoen, Hamar, Lillehammer and Otta) 2024 113 Table 4.34 – Summary of HSR Demand and Revenue: Scenario D Oslo – Trondheim (via Gardermoen) 2024 116 Table 4.35 – HSR Demand by Origin/Destination type: Scenario D Oslo – Trondheim (via Gardermoen) 2024116 Table 4.36 – Boardings by station: Scenario D Oslo – Trondheim (via Gardermoen) 2024 117 Table 4.37 – Corridor Demand by Mode and Purpose 122 Table 4.38 – Rail Demand by Sector (Scenarios A and B5) 123 Table 4.39 – Growth over Scenario A – Scenario B5 124 Table 4.40 – Summary of HSR Demand and Revenue: Scenario C Oslo – Stockholm (via Lillestrøm and Kongsvinger) 2024 124 Table 4.41 – HSR Demand by Origin/Destination type: Scenario D Oslo – Stockholm (via Lillestrøm and Kongsvinger) 2024 125 Table 4.42 – Boardings by station: Scenario C Oslo – Stockholm (via Lillestrøm and Kongsvinger)