DEBATING THE EAST ASIAN PEACE Bjarnegaard-Kreutz_book.indd 1 12/04/2017 11:09 NIAS–Nordic Institute of Asian Studies NIAS Studies in Asian Topics 47 Saying the Unsayable: Monarchy and Democracy in Thailand d Søren Ivarsson and Lotte Isager (eds) 48 Plaited Arts from the Borneo Rainforest d Bernard Sellato (ed.) 49 Cambodia’s Economic Transformation d Caroline Hughes and Kheang Un (eds) 50 Ancestors in Borneo Societies: Death, Transformation and Social Immortality d Pascal Couderc and Kenneth Sillander (eds) 51 Creative Spaces: Seeking the Dynamics of Change in China d Denise Gimpel, Bent Nielsen and Paul Bailey (eds) 52 Red Stamps and Gold Stars: Fieldwork Dilemmas in Upland Socialist Asia d Sarah Turner (ed.) 53 On the Fringes of the Harmonious Society: Tibetans and Uyghurs in Socialist China d Trine Brox and Ildikó Bellér-Hann (eds) 54 Doing Fieldwork in China … with Kids! The Dynamics of Accompanied Fieldwork in the People’s Republic d Candice Cornet and Tami Blumenfield (eds) 55 UNESCO in Southeast Asia: World Heritage Sites in Comparative Perspective d Victor T. King (ed.) 56 War and Peace in the Borderlands of Myanmar: The Kachin Ceasefire, 1994–2011 d Mandy Sadan (ed.) 57 Charismatic Monks of Lanna Buddhism d Paul T. Cohen (ed.) 58 Reinventing Social Democratic Development: Insights from Indian and Scandinavian Comparisons d Olle Törnquist and John Harriss (eds) 59 Fieldwork in Timor-Leste: Understanding Social Change through Practice d Maj Nygaard-Christensen and Angie Bexley (eds) 60 Debating the East Asian Peace: What it is. How it came about. Will it last? d Elin Bjarnegård and Joakim Kreutz (eds) 61 Khaki Capital: The Political Economy of the Military in Southeast Asia d Paul Chambers and Napisa Waitoolkiat (eds) 62 Warring Societies of Pre-colonial Southeast Asia: Local Cultures of Conflict Within a Regional Context d Michael W. Charney and Kathryn Wellen(eds) NIAS Press is the autonomous publishing arm of NIAS – Nordic Institute of Asian Studies, a research institute located at the University of Copenhagen. NIAS is partially funded by the governments of Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway and Sweden via the Nordic Council of Ministers, and works to encourage and support Asian studies in the Nordic countries. In so doing, NIAS has been publishing books since 1969, with more than two hundred titles produced in the past few years. UNIVERSITY OF COPENHAGEN Nordic Council of Ministers Bjarnegaard-Kreutz_book.indd 2 12/04/2017 11:09 DEBATING THE EAST ASIAN PEACE What it is. How it came about. Will it last? edited by Elin Bjarnegård and Joakim Kreutz Bjarnegaard-Kreutz_book.indd 3 12/04/2017 11:09 Debating the East Asian Peace What it is. How it came about. Will it last? Edited by Elin Bjarnegård and Joakim Kreutz Nordic Institute of Asian Studies Studies in Asian Topics, no. 60 First published in 2017 by NIAS Press NIAS – Nordic Institute of Asian Studies Øster Farimagsgade 5, 1353 Copenhagen K, Denmark Tel: +45 3532 9501 • Fax: +45 3532 9549 E-mail: [email protected] • Online: www.niaspress.dk © NIAS Press 2017 While copyright in the volume as a whole is vested in the Nordic Institute of Asian Studies, copyright in the individual chapters belongs to their authors. No material may be reproduced in whole or in part without the express permission of the publisher. A CIP catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library ISBN: 978-87-7694-219-9 (hbk) ISBN: 978-87-7694-220-5 (pbk) Typeset in Arno Pro 12/14.4 Typesetting by BookWork Printed and bound in Great Britain by Marston Book Services Limited, Oxfordshire Bjarnegaard-Kreutz_book.indd 4 12/04/2017 11:09 Contents x Preface i Contributors xi 1. Introduction: Debating Peace, Debating East Asia (Elin Bjarnegård and Joakim Kreutz) 1 2. Peace by Trade (Benjamin E. Goldsmith) 13 3. Peace by International Law (Shirley V. Scott) 36 4. Peace by Development (Stein Tønnesson) 55 5. Peace by External Withdrawal (Joakim Kreutz) 78 6. Peace by Avoidance of Religious Civil Wars (Isak Svensson) 98 7. Peace by Demographic Change (Henrik Urdal) 115 8. The Repressive Peace (Kristine Eck) 142 9. The Unequal Peace (Elin Bjarnegård) 159 10. The Trustworthy Peace? (O. Fiona Yap) 176 11. The Masculine Peace (Erik Melander) 200 12. The Unforgiving Peace (Holly L. Guthrey) 220 13. The Nationalist Threat to the East Asian Peace (Yongwook Ryu) 239 14. The Great Power Challenge to the East Asian Peace (Robert S. Ross) 260 15. The East Asian Peace – Will It Last? (Elin Bjarnegård, Kristine Eck, Holly Guthrey, Joakim Kreutz, Erik Melander, Isak Svensson and Stein Tønnesson) 281 Index 297 v Bjarnegaard-Kreutz_book.indd 5 12/04/2017 11:09 Debating the East Asian Peace List of Figures 0.1 Map of East Asia viii 1.1. Global estimates of annual battle-deaths from armed conflict, 1946–2014 2 2.1. ICB crisis onset and escalation rates, intra-regional dyads 19 2.2. Average dyadic intra-regional trade volumes 21 2.3. Intra-regional trade interdependence 22 7.1. East Asian youth bulges 1950–2015: Early-transition countries 127 7.2. East Asian youth bulges 1950–2015: Late-transition countries 127 7.3. East Asian youth bulges 2015 128 7.4. East Asian youth bulges 1950–2050: Selected countries 128 7.5. Youth bulges and support ratio: Republic of Korea 1950– 2015 129 7.6. East Asian support ratios 1950–2050: Early-transition countries 129 7.7. East Asian support ratios 1950–2050: Late-transition countries 130 7.8. Completed secondary education in East Asia 1970–2015 130 7.9. Gender parity in secondary education in East Asia 1970– 2050 135 7.10. Urban population five-year growth rates 1990–2050: Early- transition countries 135 7.11. Urban population five-year growth rates 1990–2050: Late- transition countries 136 7.12. Excess males aged 0–4 in selected East Asian countries 1970–2030 136 8.1. Respect for physical integrity rights in East Asia, 1949–2013 145 8.2. Respect for physical integrity rights in East Asia by country, 1949–2013 146 10.1. Growth, trust, protest and freedoms in South Korea 189 10.2. Growth, trust, protest and freedoms in Taiwan 190 vi Bjarnegaard-Kreutz_book.indd 6 12/04/2017 11:09 Contents 10.3. Growth, trust, protest and freedoms in Indonesia 191 10.4. Growth, trust, protest and freedoms in the Philippines 192 10.5. Growth, trust, protest and freedoms in Malaysia 193 10.6. Growth, trust, protest and freedoms in Thailand 194 11.1. Use of the word ‘honour’ or ‘honor’ over time 214 13.1. Number of Chinese vessels that entered the maritime and air space of the disputed Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands, 2008–2015 251 List of Tables 8.1. Freedom House scores for East Asia, 2014 and 1972 147 10.1. Democratic peace over time for East Asia 186 12.1. Amnesties and truth commissions in East Asia 228 12.2. Amnesties, truth commission quality, and quality peace scores 233 vii Bjarnegaard-Kreutz_book.indd 7 12/04/2017 11:09 Debating the East Asian Peace R U S S I A KAZAKHSTAN Nthn Terr. - Kurils Ulanbataar MONGOLIA Sea of Beijing Japan Pyongyang N. KOREA JAPAN Tianjin Seoul Tokyo S. KOREA C H I N A Yellow Sea Dokdo/Takeshima Jeju Shanghai Chongqing Nanjing East China BHUTAN Sea I N D I A BANGLA- KACHIN STATE Kunming Okinawa DESH Senkaku/Diaoyu MYANMAR YUNNAN Taipei SHAN Guangzhou Taiwan Strait RAKHINE STATE Hong Kong TAIWAN Naypyidaw Hanoi STATE Macao KAYIN STATE KAYIN LAOS Tonkin Luzon Strait Bay Gulf Hainan of Vientiane Paracels Luzon Guam (US) Bengal THAILAND Hue Scarborough Shoal Yangon Bangkok South Manila Subic Bay+ VIETNAM China CAMBODIA Sea PHILIPPINES Phnom Penh +Cam Ranh Bay Gulf of HCM City Thailand Spratlys Malacca Strait Sulu Sea Mindanao ACEH MALAYSIA Natuna Kuala Lumpur BRUNEI MALAYSIA Sumatra SINGAPORE Kalimantan Sulawesi WEST PAPUA Jakarta Sunda Strait I N D O N E S I A Bandung Java TIMOR LESTE Lombok Strait © NIAS Press 2017 AUSTRALIA Figure 0.1: Map of East Asia (underlying relief map © Mountain High Maps) viii Bjarnegaard-Kreutz_book.indd 8 12/04/2017 11:09 Preface and Acknowledgements East Asia used to be the world’s deadliest battleground, but in the last four decades has witnessed only a fraction of the political violence seen in other world regions. This transition from widespread intensive warfare to relative regional peace constitutes an empirical phenomenon that differs from the traditional focus of security studies: identifying the causes of war. To address the dearth of research on this region’s transition to peace, an ambitious research programme was created with its base at the Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University in Sweden between 2011 and 2016. This volume is the product of research and debates taking place within this East Asian Peace research programme, which gathered researchers from all over the world in order to address questions about how the East Asian Peace as a phenomenon can be conceptualized, explained and assessed. Besides Uppsala University, the programme included more than 20 research associates from all over the world as well as an inter- national advisory board. The annual East Asian Peace conferences have been important debating grounds and meeting places that have laid the groundwork for the findings and debates presented in this book. The contributors to this volume include all of the members of the programme core group – Stein Tønnesson (programme leader), Erik Melander (deputy programme leader), Holly Guthrey (programme coor- dinator), Elin Bjarnegård, Kristine Eck, Joakim Kreutz and Isak Svensson – as well as research associates and/or conference attendees Benjamin Goldsmith, Shirley Scott, Henrik Urdal, Fiona Yap and Yongwook Ryu, and there is also a chapter by the advisory board member Robert S.