Afghanistan and transnational war: Interlocking security dilemmas and strategic challenges Nishank Motwani A thesis in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy School of Humanities and Social Sciences UNSW Canberra November 2015 Abstract Following the overthrow of the Taliban regime in 2001, the United States and Afghan governments have sought, with little success, to resolve Afghanistan’s regional problems through a political framework intended to knit the region together. This thesis investigates the reasons why a regional solution to the conflict in Afghanistan has not gained traction. Traditional understandings of the security dilemma are conceptually refined, operationally expanded and thematically analysed. Conceptually, a distinction is drawn between genuine security dilemmas, involving benign actors, and strategic challenges, involving actors with malign intent. Operationally, bilateral formulations of the security dilemma are expanded to demonstrate the occurrence of multiple interlocking security dilemmas. Thematically, a case study method is used to explore these security conditions in terms of the structural, contextual and cognitive dynamics impeding regional cooperation. Three findings emerge. First, Afghan leaders and their backers have failed to address key structural impediments, such as competing notions of security and regional stability, rival strategic interests and opposing power ambitions. The Afghan Taliban’s absolute goals, Pakistan’s malign orientation, and Saudi Arabia’s anti-Iranian and Salafist ideology have proved most debilitating. Second, the metastases of Southwest Asia’s unresolved contextual reality tax an already rickety mechanism. The legacy of fraught historical relations, territorial disputes, state and non-state spoilers, armed conflict, and the effects of the Indian-Pakistani nuclear deterrent taints the politico-social environment, stymieing efforts to allay entrenched suspicions. Third, advocates of a regional strategy have failed to consider fully how to reshape or moderate the cognitive perceptions of actors. High levels of fear (whether real or imagined), perverse enemy images, trust deficits and uncertainty arising from military postures exacerbate the challenge faced by those seeking an end to the conflict. The thesis concludes that a regional solution seems unlikely. Afghanistan remains trapped in a web of interlocking security dilemmas and strategic challenges, each complicated by structural, contextual and cognitive factors. A better approach would be to strengthen Afghanistan through state-building and to focus diplomatic efforts on persuading or pressuring regional states to resolve their tensions bilaterally. Table of Contents Acknowledgements ....................................................................................................... v List of Acronyms and Abbreviations .............................................................................vii List of Figures .............................................................................................................. xi Maps ........................................................................................................................... xiii Chapter 1: Introduction .............................................................................................. 1 1. Theoretical framework ........................................................................................ 2 2. Research methodology ...................................................................................... 5 3. Thesis outline ..................................................................................................... 7 Chapter 2: The history of the Afghan conflict ......................................................... 11 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 11 1. The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 ...................................................... 12 2. Post-Soviet withdrawal fragility in Afghanistan and the Afghan civil war 1992– 1996 ................................................................................................................. 22 3. Operation Enduring Freedom ........................................................................... 35 Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 37 Chapter 3: Afghanistan’s regional diplomacy and “Heart of Asia” process ........ 39 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 39 1. What is Afghanistan’s region? .......................................................................... 39 2. From regional cooperation to a regional political solution ................................. 53 Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 57 Chapter 4: Security dilemma: The emergence and development of the concept 59 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 59 1. The emergence of the security dilemma ........................................................... 61 2. Development of the security dilemma: Uncertainty and fear under anarchy ..... 71 3. Searching for cooperation under the security dilemma ..................................... 85 4. Critics of the security dilemma .......................................................................... 89 5. Properties of a genuine security dilemma ......................................................... 92 Conclusion .................................................................................................................. 93 Chapter 5: Operationalising the security dilemma ................................................. 95 Introduction ................................................................................................................. 95 1. Distinguishing between benign and malign security conditions ......................... 96 2. A model for interaction between security dilemmas and strategic challenges . 100 i 3. Refining the security dilemma: Unpacking the structural, contextual and cognitive characteristics of actors ................................................................... 107 Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 135 Chapter 6: Setting the scene—the dynamics of Afghanistan and its stakeholders ................................................................................................................................. 139 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 139 1. The goals and concerns of external actors in Afghanistan .............................. 139 2. Regional summitry but no traction on a regional political solution ................... 173 Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 175 Chapter 7: Structural factors impeding a regional political solution .................. 177 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 177 1. Pakistan’s engagement with the Afghan Taliban ............................................ 178 2. Security dilemmas as impediments to a regional political solution .................. 184 3. Strategic challenges as impediments for regional cooperation ....................... 201 4. The regional contagion effect ......................................................................... 218 Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 219 Chapter 8: Contextual factors impeding a regional political solution ................. 221 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 221 1. Fraught historical relations and territorial disputes .......................................... 222 2. State and non-state spoilers ........................................................................... 242 3. Risk taking under a nuclear security umbrella ................................................ 253 Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 261 Chapter 9: Cognitive factors impeding a regional political solution ................... 263 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 263 1. Regional dynamics of uncertainty, fear and mistrust in Southwest Asia .......... 264 2. The problem of enemy images in Southwest Asia .......................................... 290 3. The dialectics of the Indian and Pakistani nuclear deterrent postures: Consequences for stability ............................................................................. 305 Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 314 Chapter 10: Conclusion .......................................................................................... 317 1. Applying the refined security dilemma framework ..........................................