AN ECONOMIC REPORT TO THE GOVERNOR OF THE STATE OF TENNESSEE The State’s Economic Outlook January 2010 AN ECONOMIC REPORT TO THE GOVERNOR OF THE STATE OF TENNESSEE Matthew N. Murray, Associate Director and Project Director Center for Business and Economic Research Prepared by the Center for Business and Economic Research College of Business Administration The University of Tennessee Knoxville, Tennessee In cooperation with the Appalachian Regional Commission Tennessee Department of Finance and Administration Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development Tennessee Department of Revenue and Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development Nashville, Tennessee The State’s Economic Outlook January 2010 Acknowledgements Contributors to this Report An Economic Report to the Governor of the State of Tennessee Authors Center for Business and Economic Research Matthew N. Murray, Associate Director and Project Director William F. Fox, Director Vickie C. Cunningham, Research Associate Ann Boyd Davis, Graduate Research Assistant Rebekah D. McCarty, Graduate Research Assistant Todd R. Yarbrough, Graduate Research Assistant Department of Agricultural Economics Harwood D. Schaffer, Research Associate, Agricultural Policy Analysis Center Kelly J. Tiller, Assistant Professor and Director of the Offi ce of Bioenergy Programs Daryll E. Ray, Blasingame Chair of Excellence Professor, Professor and Director of the Agricultural Policy Analysis Center Jane H. Starnes, Director of the Center for Tobacco Grower Research Project Support Staff Betty A. Drinnen, Program Resource Specialist Carrie B. McCamey, Communications Coordinator Laura Ogle-Graham, Business Manager Melissa O. Reynolds, Research Associate The preparation of this report was fi nanced in part by the following agencies: the Tennessee Department of Finance and Administration, the Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development, the Tennessee Department of Revenue, the Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development, and the Appalachian Regional Commission. This material is the result of tax-supported research and as such is not copyrightable. It may be freely reprinted with the customary crediting of the source. UT Publication Authorization Number R01-1493-202-012-10. ii 2010 Tennessee Economic Report Preface Preface This 2010 volume of An Economic Report to the Governor of the State of Tennessee is the 34th in a series of annual reports compiled in response to requests by state government offi cials for assistance in achieving greater interdepartmental consistency in planning and budgeting efforts sensitive to the overall economic environment. Both short-term, or business cycle-sensitive forecasts, and longer-term, or trend forecasts, are provided in this report. The quarterly state forecast through the fi rst quarter of 2012 and annual forecast through 2019 represent the collective judgment of the staff of the University of Tennessee’s Center for Business and Economic Research in conjunction with the Quarterly and Annual Tennessee Econometric Models. The national forecasts were prepared by IHS Global Insight, Inc. Tennessee forecasts, current as of January 2010, are based on an array of assumptions, particularly at the national level, which are described in Chapter One. Chapter Two details evaluations for major sectors of the Tennessee economy, with an agriculture section provided by the University of Tennessee Agricultural Policy Analysis Center. Chapter Three presents the long-run outlook and forecast for the state. Chapter Four discusses the future of Tennessee’s transportation equipment sector. The primary purpose of this annual volume—published, distributed, and fi nanced through the Tennessee Department of Finance and Administration, Tennessee Department of Economic and Community Development, the Tennessee Department of Revenue, the Tennessee Department of Labor and Workforce Development, and the Appalachian Regional Commission—is to provide wide public dissemination of the most-current possible economic analysis to planners and decision-makers in the public and private sectors. Matthew N. Murray Associate Director and Project Director Center for Business and Economic Research 2010 Tennessee Economic Report iii Contents Contents The U.S. Economy ........................................................................1 1.1. Introduction ..................................................................................................1 1.2. The U.S. Economy: Year in Review ............................................................2 Components of GDP ............................................................................................2 Infl ation and Prices ..............................................................................................7 The Labor Market .................................................................................................9 1.3. The U.S. Forecast ......................................................................................13 Consumption and the Labor Market.................................................................13 Investment and Interest Rates ..........................................................................15 Government Spending ......................................................................................16 International Trade .............................................................................................16 Prices and Infl ation ............................................................................................16 1.4. Alternative Scenarios ................................................................................17 1.5. Forecast Summary and Conclusions ......................................................17 The Tennessee Economy: Short-Term Outlook ......................19 2.1. Introduction ................................................................................................19 2.2. The Current Economic Environment .......................................................20 2.3. State Tax Revenues ...................................................................................25 2.4. Short-Term Outlook ...................................................................................31 2.5. Situation and Outlook for Tennessee Agriculture ..................................34 Overview of Agriculture in Tennessee .............................................................34 Tennessee Agricultural Sector Outlook ...........................................................36 Ag Sector Issues and Opportunities ................................................................39 The Tennessee Economy: Long-Term Outlook ......................45 3.1. Introduction ................................................................................................45 3.2. A Retrospective and Prospective Look at State Government Revenue ......................................................................................................46 Historical Growth in Tax Collections ...............................................................46 The Outlook for State Tax Collections .............................................................48 3.3. Employment Outlook ................................................................................51 3.4. Unemployment and Population ................................................................55 3.5. Personal Income and Taxable Sales ........................................................57 3.4. State Gross Domestic Product .................................................................57 iv 2010 Tennessee Economic Report Contents Contents, continued The Future of the U.S. Automobile Industry ............................61 4.1. Introduction ................................................................................................61 4.2. Same as it Ever Was ..................................................................................62 4.3. The Rise and Fall of the U.S. Automobile Industry ................................65 4.4. The Future of the U.S. Automobile Industry ...........................................66 Increasing Flexibility: Situational Awareness and Increasing Automation .........................................................................................................67 The Changing Face of Cost Structures............................................................68 4.5. Future Technologies..................................................................................70 Composite Materials for Automobile Bodies ..................................................70 Nanotechnology and Automobiles ...................................................................71 Artifi cial Intelligence Making Automobiles Smarter .......................................72 The Electric Automobile ...................................................................................74 The Outlook ........................................................................................................75 4.6. Future Trends and Product Demand .......................................................77 Demographic Shifts and the Impact on Demand ............................................77 4.7. Labor and Workers ....................................................................................78 More Automobiles-Fewer Jobs? .......................................................................78 We’re Not in Detroit Anymore ...........................................................................79