AfDB 2014 www.afdb.org Economic Brief CONTENTS Industrial Policy at the Service of Balanced Territorial Development in Summary p.1 Tunisia 1 – Introduction p.2 2 – Agglomeration, Spatial Disparities and Industrial Policies: Brief Overview of the Theoretical and Summary Empirical Literature p.3 3- Analysis of Industrial he purpose of this study is to analyse the more developed, have relatively diversified Sector Spatial T extent to which new industrial policy industrial activities; and, secondly, the Concentration in components can facilitate the achievement of governorates in the hinterlands and in southern more balanced territorial development in Tunisia, which are less developed, have a less- Tunisia p.5 Tunisia. To that end, we initiated a statistical diversified industrial structure. To guarantee the 4- Agglomeration of analysis of spatial concentration in Tunisia by achievement of more balanced industrial Industrial Activities in calculating the Herfindahl and Ellison & Glaeser development, we propose the adoption of new Tunisia: An Exploratory indices of the various regions and industrial industrial policy components that will generate sectors. We then studied the interactions synergies of proximity between hinterland Analysis of Spatial Data p.12 between neighbouring regions to determine the governorates and their coastal neighbours in 5- Conclusion: Industrial agglomeration of industrial activities using order to trigger a partial migration of labour- spatial data exploratory analysis tools. The intensive activities to disadvantaged regions. Policy Implications p.17 empirical results show that Tunisia’s industrial Such regions will have to start by optimizing Annexes p.21 fabric has two spatial agglomeration patterns: their current specialties before embarking on first of all, the coastal governorates, which are diversification. Bibliographical References p.27 Zondo Sakala Vice President [email protected] Jacob Kolster Director ORNA [email protected] This paper was prepared by Dr. Zouhour Karray (Coordinateur, Professeur, Département Economie Université de Tunis) +216 7110 2065 et Dr. Slim Driss (Maître de Conférences, Département Economie Université de Tunis), under the supervision of Vincent Castel (Chief Economist, ORNA) and Sahar Rad (Senior Economist, ORNA). Overall guidance was received from Jacob Kolster (Director, ORNA). African Development Bank AfDB Economic Brief 2014 • www.afdb.org 1. Introduction or a long time, industrial development policies have been considered industrial policy can play in territorial development and regional Fthe strategic pillar that guarantees growth and economic convergence. development in Tunisia. More precisely, industrialisation, technological catch-up and policies that ensure trade liberalization and export The purpose of this study is to analyse the extent to which new industrial promotion are deemed the key measures of economic development. policy components can facilitate the achievement of more balanced However, these concepts bear little or no relationship to territorial territorial development in Tunisia. More precisely, this study has a dual development in some regions. Consequently, although Tunisia has been objective. Firstly, it seeks to provide much-needed clarifications on the able to achieve economic growth rates of approximately 5% since the concepts of industrial concentration and agglomeration, considered to late 1990s, the fruits of this growth have not been equitably distributed be the causes of regional disparities, by identifying the specificities of among the various regions (especially between the coastal and hinterland each region. Secondly, it proposes some economic policy measures regions). Regional disparity issues only caught the attention of policy that can ensure a certain degree of regional convergence by blending makers and economists studying Tunisia’s economy after the events industrial policy with regional development policy. of 14 January 2011. The rest of the paper is structured as follows: Section two provides a Several studies have been conducted on spatial disparities in Tunisia brief overview of the theoretical and empirical literature on industry and their impact on regional development. These studies: i) focused agglomeration, its impact in terms of spatial disparities and the renewed attention on certain regions like Zaghouan, which underwent remarkable role that industrial policy can henceforth play to guarantee the attainment development during the last decade (Kriaa and Montacer, 2009); ii) of more balanced territorial development. Section three makes a analysed traditional sectors like the textile industry that experienced a statistical analysis of spatial concentration in Tunisia by calculating the recession (Driss, 2009); iii) identified the factors that account for the Herfindahl and Ellison & Glaeser indices of various regions and industrial geographic location of foreign investments (Karray, 2009); or lastly and sectors. Section four studies the interactions between neighbouring in general, iv) analysed the determinants of regional growth (Karray and regions and determines industrial agglomeration using spatial data Driss, 2009). Other studies assessed regional poverty (Montacer et al., exploratory analysis tools. Relying on the results obtained from analyses 2010; Ayadi and El Lahga, 2006) and reviewed the impact of economic of geographic concentration and spatial auto-correlation, the last section openness on regional disparities in Tunisia (Kriaa, Driss and Karray, of the paper concludes by proposing new industrial policy measures 2011). However, none of the above studies dwelt on the role that that guarantee more balanced territorial development. 2 African Development Bank Economic Brief AfDB 2014 • www.afdb.org 2. Agglomeration, Spatial Disparities and Industrial Policies: Brief Overview of the Theoretical and Empirical Literature he agglomeration of productive activities creates positive growth of a particular industry and of the region in which that industry T feedback loops that new economic geography associates with developed; Jacobs externalities (1969, 1984) result from a region's externalities: the location of an activity in a given locality attracts other industrial diversity and create economies of agglomeration that are activities and this engenders a "virtuous circle" for the host locality external to the firm and the sector, but internal to the region. while creating a "vicious circle" for other localities which perforce gradually lose their appeal. This is the foundation of the core-periphery Pioneer empirical studies based on the contributions of the endogenous model described by Krugman (1991). Indeed, the effects of spatial growth theory (Romer 1986; Lucas 1988), explain the growth of towns agglomeration are ambiguous from the territorial development in developed countries (Glaeser et al., 1992; Henderson et al., 1995) standpoint. By encouraging the spatial concentration of activities in in terms of their industrial structures, explicitly introducing the role of certain localities of the national territory (usually urban areas), this dynamic externalities. Drawing on these works and considering the phenomenon triggers an exodus from localities that do not benefit specificities of developing countries, certain empirical studies (Catin from a spatial positive feedback (essentially rural areas). Such et al., 2007; Karray and Driss, 2009; Amara and Thabet, 2012) explore aggravation of geographic inequalities prompts the following question: this research avenue to determine the extent to which the industrial At what point does a locality cease to be unappealing for business structure of a region determines its growth. These studies found that and becomes an attractive space, and vice versa? both pecuniary and technological externalities are responsible for the growth of certain regions to the detriment of others, but failed to Local economic development is based on positive externalities, be mention the role that public authorities can play to achieve more they pecuniary or technological in origin. In the first case, the location balanced territorial development. of an activity could have a catalytic effect on the development of complementary activities. Externalities linked to supply and demand Hence, this raises the question of territorial regulation that must be both upstream (backward linkages) and downstream (forward linkages) directly related to the local industrial structure. This situation prompted reinforce each other to create concentration phenomena. The Rodrik (2004) to state that industrial policy is back, especially in countries attraction of businesses to agglomerations is enhanced by the currently engaged in policy renewal efforts. Industrial policy renewal existence of a large customer base, the availability of specialised must introduce at least two essential elements. Firstly, the State must suppliers and a skilled and diversified labour force. According to reduce its erstwhile role of omnipresent stakeholder who allocates Venables (1996), firms tend to agglomerate because of externalities resources and dictates action, and assume the role of an economic related to labour supply, demand for goods, and inter-firm input- stakeholder capable of creating an enabling environment and establishing output externalities. institutions that rally the economic activity around one or several industrial activities with high growth potential for the region. Hence, according to Technological externalities