Municipal Council of Maputo Republic of Mozambique Comprehensive Urban Transport Master Plan for the Greater Maputo Final Report Volume 1 Master Plan Report March 2014 JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY PADECO Co., Ltd. Nippon Koei Co., Ltd. EI JR 14-079 Exchange Rate used in this Report: 1 USD = 30.25 MT 1 USD =100 JPY (September 2013) Comprehensive Urban Transport Master Plan for the Greater Maputo Master Plan Report Contents Abbreviations .............................................................................................................................. xii Chapter 1 Introduction ...................................................................................................... 1-1 1.1 Background .............................................................................................................. 1-1 1.2 Objectives ................................................................................................................. 1-1 1.3 Study Area ................................................................................................................ 1-2 1.4 Tasks ......................................................................................................................... 1-3 1.5 Relevant Plans .......................................................................................................... 1-5 1.6 Structure of This Report ........................................................................................... 1-5 Chapter 2 Existing Urban Transport Issues .................................................................... 2-1 2.1 Overview of Existing Urban Transport Systems ...................................................... 2-1 2.1.1 Existing Road Transport System ...................................................................... 2-1 2.1.2 Existing Public Transport System .................................................................... 2-6 2.1.3 Existing Traffic Control and Management ..................................................... 2-17 2.2 Existing Travel/Traffic Patterns.............................................................................. 2-23 2.2.1 Overview ........................................................................................................ 2-23 2.2.2 Household Interview Survey .......................................................................... 2-24 2.2.3 Cordon and Screenline Surveys ..................................................................... 2-24 2.2.4 Travel Speed Surveys ..................................................................................... 2-26 2.2.5 Freight Surveys .............................................................................................. 2-28 2.2.6 Overview of Travel Patterns ........................................................................... 2-30 2.3 Key Urban Transport Issues/Challenges ................................................................ 2-32 2.3.1 Major Issues/Challenges ................................................................................ 2-32 2.3.2 Existing Road Network Issues/Challenges ..................................................... 2-33 2.3.3 Existing Public Transport Issues/Challenges ................................................. 2-35 2.3.4 Existing Traffic Management Issues/Challenges ........................................... 2-36 2.3.5 Existing Institutions and Capacity Issues/Challenges .................................... 2-37 Chapter 3 Development Framework ................................................................................ 3-1 3.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 3-1 3.2 Demographic Framework ......................................................................................... 3-1 3.2.1 Population Projection ....................................................................................... 3-1 3.3 Employment and Enrolment ..................................................................................... 3-4 3.3.1 Employment (Job Distribution in 2035) ........................................................... 3-4 3.3.2 Enrolment ......................................................................................................... 3-6 3.4 Expected Economic Growth ..................................................................................... 3-7 3.4.1 GDP/GRDP ...................................................................................................... 3-7 Chapter 4 Alternative Land Use Development Patterns................................................. 4-1 4.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 4-1 4.2 Existing Land Use and Development Trends ........................................................... 4-1 4.3 Physical Constraints for Urbanization – Natural Environment ................................ 4-3 4.3.1 Flood Susceptibility .......................................................................................... 4-3 4.4 Urban Development Visions, Goals, and Strategies ................................................. 4-4 i Comprehensive Urban Transport Master Plan for the Greater Maputo Master Plan Report 4.5 SEA Consideration of Strategies .............................................................................. 4-7 4.6 Urban Development Patterns (Existing Trend, Poly-Centric, Compact Corridor) ................................................................................................................... 4-8 4.6.1 Context ............................................................................................................. 4-8 4.6.2 Proposed Alternative Urban Development Scenarios ...................................... 4-9 4.6.3 Existing Transport Conditions and Urban Development Scenarios ............... 4-12 4.7 Distribution of Future Population, Employment and Enrollment .......................... 4-15 4.7.1 Methodology .................................................................................................. 4-15 4.7.2 Current Socio-Economic Distribution ............................................................ 4-16 4.7.3 Scenario A: Trend Growth: Mono-centric Radial Development (Unplanned Growth) ...................................................................................... 4-17 4.7.4 Scenario B: Polycentric Satellite Center Development Pattern ..................... 4-18 4.7.5 Scenario C: Compact Corridor Development ................................................ 4-19 4.7.6 Distribution Differences by Scenario ............................................................. 4-20 Chapter 5 Development of Land Use/Transport Scenarios and Urban Transport Development Strategies .................................................................................... 5-1 5.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 5-1 5.2 Alternative Land Use Scenarios ............................................................................... 5-1 5.3 Urban Transport Development Vision and Strategy ................................................. 5-2 5.3.1 Vision and Strategy Agreed by Steering Committee ........................................ 5-2 5.3.2 Addressing Major Transport Issues/Challenges ............................................... 5-4 5.4 Alternative Transport Scenarios ............................................................................... 5-5 5.4.1 Outline .............................................................................................................. 5-5 5.4.2 Alternative Transport Network ......................................................................... 5-5 5.4.3 Comparison Among Scenarios ......................................................................... 5-8 5.5 Summary .................................................................................................................. 5-9 Chapter 6 Future Traffic Demand and Evaluation of Transport Development Scenarios ........................................................................................................... 6-1 6.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................. 6-1 6.2 Demand Forecasting Procedure ............................................................................... 6-1 6.3 Outline of Future Traffic Demand Forecasts ............................................................ 6-5 6.4 Trip Assignment for Alternative Scenarios .............................................................. 6-7 6.5 Evaluation of Alternative Scenarios ....................................................................... 6-10 6.5.1 System Performance Indices .......................................................................... 6-10 6.5.2 Estimation of Indices ...................................................................................... 6-10 6.5.3 Scoring of Alternative Scenarios .................................................................... 6-11 6.5.4 Master Plan Transport Network ..................................................................... 6-13 Chapter 7 Road Network Improvement Plan .................................................................. 7-1 7.1 Introduction .............................................................................................................