FINAL REPORT Ecosystem Model Comparison at Multiple Scales and Sites ESTCP Project RC-201702 JULY 2020 Melissa Lucash Portland State University Robert Scheller North Carolina State University Matthew Duveneck Harvard University Distribution Statement A This document has been cleared for public release This report was prepared under contract to the Department of Defense Environmental Security Technology Certification Program (ESTCP). The publication of this report does not indicate endorsement by the Department of Defense, nor should the contents be construed as reflecting the official policy or position of the Department of Defense. Reference herein to any specific commercial product, process, or service by trade name, trademark, manufacturer, or otherwise, does not necessarily constitute or imply its endorsement, recommendation, or favoring by the Department of Defense. 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REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED (From - To) 01-07-2020 ESTCP Final Report 10/30/2017 – 10/29/21 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 18-C-0007 Ecosystem Model Comparison at Multiple Scales and Sites 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER RC-201702 Melissa Lucash 5e. TASK NUMBER Robert Scheller Matthew Duveneck 5f. WORK UNIT NUMBER 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 8. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION REPORT NUMBER Portland State University North Carolina State University Portland, OR 97207 Raleigh, NC 27695 USA USA RC-201702 Harvard University Cambridge, MA 02138 USA 9. SPONSORING / MONITORING AGENCY NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES) 10. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S ACRONYM(S) ESTCP Environmental Security Technology Certification Program 4800 Mark Center Drive, Suite 16F16 11. SPONSOR/MONITOR’S REPORT Alexandria, VA 22350-3605 NUMBER(S) RC-201702 12. DISTRIBUTION / AVAILABILITY STATEMENT Distribution A: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. 13. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 14. ABSTRACT Ensuring the long-term sustainability of eastern US forests in the face of climate variability and change will require that forest managers have the best available climate change research to make sound management decisions. Ecosystem process models are now able to project forest landscape conditions in response to anticipated climate, natural disturbance, forest management, and their interactions; these projections can inform forest management decisions. However, there is no single scale which is perfectly suited to addressing all questions about climate change and management. Critical patterns which emerge at fine-scales may be over-averaged at larger scales and vice-versa. Our objectives were to: a) compare model outcomes from two modeling frameworks against empirical data and to each other, b) examine climate change, disturbance, and management interactions at Ft. Bragg, North Carolina; translate these procedures; and prepare a roadmap for deployment across other forested military installations. 15. SUBJECT TERMS Ecostystem model, climate change, LANDIS-II/NECN, LANDIS-II/PnET, forests 16. SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: 17. LIMITATION 18. NUMBER 19a. NAME OF RESPONSIBLE PERSON OF ABSTRACT OF PAGES Melissa Lucash a. REPORT b. ABSTRACT c. THIS PAGE 19b. TELEPHONE NUMBER (include area UNCLASS 116 UNCLASS code) UNCLASS UNCLASS 503-725-3894 Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std. Z39.18 FINAL REPORT Project: RC-201702 TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT ...................................................................................................................... VI EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...................................................................................................... ES-1 1.0 INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................. 1 1.1 BACKGROUND .......................................................................................................... 1 1.2 OVERALL OBJECTIVES ........................................................................................... 2 1.3 REGULATORY DRIVERS ......................................................................................... 2 2.0 TECHNOLOGY/METHODOLOGY DESCRIPTION ......................................................... 4 2.1 TECHNOLOGY/METHODOLOGY OVERVIEW ..................................................... 4 2.2 ADVANTAGES AND LIMITATIONS OF THE TECHNOLOGY/ METHODOLOGY ....................................................................................................... 8 3.0 PERFORMANCE OBJECTIVES ....................................................................................... 10 4.0 SITE DESCRIPTION .......................................................................................................... 12 4.1 SITE SELECTION ..................................................................................................... 12 4.2 SITE LOCATION AND HISTORY ........................................................................... 12 4.3 SITE CHARACTERISTICS ....................................................................................... 12 5.0 TEST DESIGN .................................................................................................................... 14 5.1 CONCEPTUAL TEST DESIGN ................................................................................ 14 5.2 BASELINE CHARACTERIZATION AND PREPARATION.................................. 14 5.3 DESIGN AND LAYOUT OF TECHNOLOGY AND METHODOLOGY COMPONENTS ......................................................................................................... 20 5.4 FIELD TESTING........................................................................................................ 20 5.5 SAMPLING PROTOCOL .......................................................................................... 20 5.6 SAMPLING RESULTS .............................................................................................. 20 6.0 PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT ..................................................................................... 25 6.1 TEST PHASE ............................................................................................................. 25 6.2 DEMONSTRATION PHASE .................................................................................... 25 6.3 SUMMARY OF PERFORMANCE ASSESSMENT ................................................. 26 7.0 COST ASSESSMENT ......................................................................................................... 33 8.0 IMPLEMENTATION ISSUES ........................................................................................... 34 9.0 REFERENCES .................................................................................................................... 35 APPENDIX A POINT OF CONTACT .............................................................................. A-1 APPENDIX B HURRICANE DRAFT MANUSCRIPT AND MORTALITY TABLE ... B-1 APPENDIX C ERICKSON AND STRIGUL (2019) ........................................................ C-1 i LIST OF FIGURES Page Figure 1. Schematic Diagram of the PPA-SiBGC Model Structure. .......................................... 5 Figure 2. Schematic Diagram of the Net Ecosystem Carbon Nitrogen Succession (‘LANDIS-II/NECN’) Model Structure. ..................................................................... 6 Figure 3. Schematic Diagram of the LANDIS-II/PnET Model. ................................................. 7 Figure 4. Locations of the Jones Center, Ft. Bragg, and Harvard Forest. .................................. 8 Figure 5. The Presence of Old-growth Longleaf Pine (Left, Green) and Loblolly Pine (Right) Imputed from Ft. Bragg Natural Resource Division Inventory Data. .......... 15 Figure 6. Baseline Estimated Age Distributions of Eight Tree Species Within the Ft. Bragg, NC Landscape. ................................................................................... 16 Figure 7. A Comparison of Baseline Biomass as Imputed into LANDIS-II/NECN and LANDIS-II/PnET Compared to Biomass Distributions Derived from FIA Data for NC, SC, and VA. ......................................................................... 16 Figure 8. Baseline Vegetation Types for Ft. Bragg, NC, Representing Vegetation Types circa 2018. .................................................................................... 17 Figure 9. Baseline Fire Zone Maps at Ft. Bragg, NC. .............................................................. 18 Figure 10. The Distribution of Hurricane Wind Speeds in Hurricanes that Strike GA, SC,