Introduction Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik ments German Institute for International and Security Affairs m Co Syrian Muslim Brotherhood Still a Crucial Actor WP S Inclusivity the Order of the Day in Dealings with Syria’s Opposition Petra Becker Summer 2013 brought severe setbacks for the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood. Firstly, one of its most important regional supporters, Qatar lost its leading role in the Group of Friends of the Syrian People, the alliance of states and organisations backing Syria’s opposition, to Saudi Arabia. Secondly, the Brotherhood has been hit by stinging criti- cism of the Egyptian MB’s performance in government and the media witch-hunt against political Islam following the ouster of Mohammed Morsi. In the face of these events the Syrian Brotherhood – to date still a religious and social movement – post- poned the founding of a political party planned for late June. Thirdly, the Brotherhood – like its partners in the National Coalition which opposes the Syrian regime – bet on an American-backed military intervention in August/September. This intervention did not occur due to the American-Russian brokered agreement providing for Syria to join the Convention on the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons. As a result, the National Coalition and its Supreme Military Command have faced defections of major rebel forces, which may lead to a major shift towards Jihadi Salafism and the marginalization of moderate forces on the ground. Yet the Brother- hood remains the best-organised political force within the Syrian opposition alliances and still sees itself becoming the leading force in post-revolutionary Syria. Germany and Europe should encourage moderate forces whatever their political colours and foster the implementation of democratic concepts. The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, which formation of opposition alliances: coordi- has operated in exile since the suppression nating contacts between groups, partici- of the 1982 uprising in Hama, has always pating in all opposition meetings abroad, sought to topple the Assad regime. But like and organising with Turkish assistance the the rest of the opposition, the revolution of October 2011 inaugural conference of the March 2011 took it by surprise. Building on Syrian National Council (SNC). In addition exile structures it was, however, relatively to the seats it negotiated for itself, the quickly able to play a central role in the Brotherhood’s tactical dexterity enabled it Petra Becker is a Research Fellow in the project “Elite change and new social mobilization in the Arab world” SWP Comments 34 realized by the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP). The project is funded by the German Foreign Office October 2013 in framework of the transformation partnerships with the Arab World and the Robert Bosch Stiftung. It cooperates with the PhD grant program of the Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung and the Hanns-Seidel-Stiftung. 1 to claim seats for ideologically close repre- from Western countries. The new forma- sentatives and groups. tion, however, failed to achieve the objec- Repeated restructurings and an ever- tive of changing power relations within changing composition mean that even the exile opposition. The SNC joined the insiders find it impossible to assess the National Coalition, but operating as a bloc Brotherhood’s real weight within the SNC. of its own. Furthermore, with Qatari sup- Moreover, most Brotherhood members of port the Brotherhood was able to insist on the SNC officially represent other groups. the inclusion of other forces that shifted In December 2011, for example, 78 of the the balance to such an extent that it largely SNC’s 320 members were from the Brother- replicates the imbalance within the SNC. hood, but only 20 were on the Brotherhood On the initiative of the Group of Friends list. The others counted as independents or of the Syrian People a new attempt was representatives of civil society groups and launched at the end of May 2013 to con- organisations. To this day Brotherhood tain the influence of the Islamists in the spokesman Molham Al-Droubi figures as an National Coalition by integrating addi- independent in the SNC membership list. tional secular forces. By including a bloc The head of the Brotherhood office in Istan- around the left-wing intellectual Michel bul and editor-in-chief of the Brotherhood Kilo the intention was to also strengthen newspaper Al-Ahd is listed as a member of the bloc seeking a negotiated solution the “Revolutionary Youth”, while Brother- rather than outright military victory. But hood member Bassem Hatahet represents once more this measure was watered down. the “National Coalition for the Protection After days of talks, under massive pressure of Civilians”, to mention but a few from Qatar and Saudi Arabia, the proposed examples. twenty-two secular liberal members were Apart from its representation on the joined by fourteen new representatives of SNC, three other factors explain the the revolutionary movement, largely from Brotherhood’s influence: firstly, the weak- the Islamist spectrum, and fifteen from the ness and fragmentation of its rivals from Free Syrian Army (FSA). the secular liberal camp; secondly, its While the Brotherhood is certainly ability, unlike them, to forge coalitions, for not solely to blame for opposition power example with the communist Democratic struggles, many hold it responsible for the People’s Party, whose central committee opposition’s paralysis. That applies to left- member George Sabra is the current SNC wing, liberal and rival Islamist forces, as president; thirdly its good relations with well as activists and rebels operating within Turkey and Qatar, both of which play a the country. For example, in a declaration crucial role in funding the opposition. of 30 March 2013 the FSA accused the But the strength of the Brotherhood Brotherhood of obstructing the work of led to a loss of confidence in the SNC both the opposition and blamed it indirectly among the domestic opposition, which felt for the death of thousands of Syrians. inadequately included, and among the Qatar losing the leading role in the secular exile opposition and the Group of Group of Friends of the Syrian People to Friends of the Syrian People. Accordingly, a Saudi Arabia in May 2013 brought about new opposition grouping was founded in a new turn of events. Saudi Arabia is fun- November 2012, the National Coalition of damentally critical of the Brotherhood, not Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces least because a monarchy finds no place in (National Coalition). Here, liberal and secu- the latter’s ideological platform. Ahmad lar forces around the widely respected long- Jarba’s election as president of the National serving dissident Riad Seif sought to place Coalition in early July 2013 can also be the opposition body on a broader footing attributed to Saudi Arabian influence. As and thus win greater support especially a leader of the Shammar tribe he enjoys SWP Comments 34 October 2013 2 traditionally close relations with Saudi hood member Mohammed Hikmat Wulaid Arabia. While the Brotherhood thus ap- was elected as the provisional leader of pears to have lost influence in the National the party, with Rimon Maajoun and Nabil Coalition, it nonetheless remains the best- Qassis there are also two Christians in the organised force within it, and with Moham- leadership. But at the same time the con- med Farouq Tayfour indeed provides one of ference decided to wait for a more suitable its three vice-presidents. time to publish the statutes and launch the party. Yet the work on the ground contin- ued and the party opened offices both in Postponed Party Launch Istanbul and Aleppo, preparing for an offi- Developments in Egypt led the Brotherhood cial launch in November 2013. to delay realisation of a long-planned proj- ect: in summer 2012 the Brotherhood, to date a religious and social movement, had Structure, Base and Strategies announced plans to set up a political party In parallel to its political involvement in with a modern liberal programme open to the opposition alliances, the Brotherhood politicians from the liberal spectrum and has been working since 2011 to consolidate members of other confessions. In the last its domestic base. During its first decades in week of June 2013 a spokesperson an- exile the Brotherhood coordinated its work nounced that the Brotherhood and other primarily from Amman and London, but moderate forces would hold a three-day in 2011 shifted its main presence to Turkey, conference in Istanbul, at the end of which where it set up an office in Istanbul and a new party was to be launched. On the operates from the Turkish-Syrian border agenda, he said, was the discussion and region. In April 2013 the Brotherhood’s adoption of statutes, choosing a name and supreme guide (i.e. leader), Riad Al-Shaqfeh, electing the leadership of the new party, declared that it had begun setting up which is to consist of one-third Brother- offices in certain rebel-held areas. The first hood members and two-thirds other Brotherhood office in Aleppo officially moderate Islamists and Liberals. opened in August 2013. Its well-organised exile structures and a Selected dates in the history large reservoir of loyal followers allowed of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood the Brotherhood to expand its base in Syria. The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood claims 1945/46 Emergence of the Syrian Muslim several thousand members in 130 coun- Brotherhood, followed by phase of tries, but reliable information on member- political participation ship is not available. The Brotherhood 1963 Baath Party seizes power, Muslim counts many exile Syrians who are loosely Brotherhood banned associated with the organisation through 1963–1982 Phase of militarisation and study circles or other front organisations armed struggle as followers, although they are not strictly 1980 Emergency Law 49: membership speaking members.