RIPON The New Politics of the Old Dominion MAY 15, 1977 VOL. XIII, No. 10 50 cents SHIFTING THE REPUBLICAN AXIS Commentary:" New York by D~ck Behn Since he stepped down as Vice Pres­ Rockefeller also repLaced Dewey as ident, there have been periodic ·rumors a target of Republicans who resented that Nelson Rockefeller was about to New York's dominance of Republican run for mayor of New York City or National Conventions. At the 1952 GOP otherwise abandon his current politi­ National Convention at which Dewey had cal retirement. There has been no played a key role in securing the nom­ dramatic evidence to document the ru~ ination of Dwight D. Eisenhower, the mors but New York politics without N~~ late Sen. Everett Dirksen pointed told son Rockefeller is missing one of its the New York governor:"We followed you most stable elements. before and you took us down the path to defeat." For thirty years, the dominance of the Republican Party by first Gov. Dewey had been a master at pre-con­ Thomas Dewey :U942-54} and then Rocke­ vention politics, nearly winning the feller(1958-73} was a constant in both 1940 nomination as well as those in New York politics and the politics 1944 and 1948. Dewey never allowed of the national Republican Party. The himself to become polarized from major power of New York City money and poli­ party groups. Writing on Dewey's suc­ tical talent combined with the power cess in winning the GOP presidential of the New York governorship to assure nomination in 1948, pollster Elmo Roper the influence of New York within the said: "He did it by avoiding a coalition GOP. with either side, nationalists or inter­ nationalists. He drove his efficient Since 1900, Republican and Democrat­ organization right down the middle to ic governors from New York have alter­ fill the gaping hole which separated nated in dominating the political ma~ the two wings. He was able to do this chinery of their respective national because of a general lack of agreement parties. Republicans Theodore Roose­ as to where he stood, which created a velt(1898-l90l} and Charles Evans political vacuum that pulled in votes Hughes(1907-l9l0} ~ere key figures in from all sides. 11 the presidential contests of the cen­ tury's first two decades. Roosevelt While his organization was efficien~ was placed on the GOP's 1900 national Dewey presented a public image much dif­ ticket by GOP boss Thomas C. Platt ferent from the one projected by Nelson specifically to get him out of Albany. Rockefeller. While Dewey suffered from a reputation for aloofness, coldness, The election of Alfred E. Smith (19- and opportunism, Rockefeller was an 19-1920,1923-28) began an era of Demo­ ebullient campaigner who projected bet­ cratic dominance that was continued ter in person than on televsion. ~~ile by Franklin D. Roosevelt(1928-32}. Dewey had avoided specific stands, Rock­ When Dewey succeeded aerbert Lehman, efeller alienated fellow Republicans he resurrected Republican preeminence with the specificity of his stands. in the state. Democratic Gov. Averell While Dewey lacked an earthy warmth and Harriman's dreams of Pennsylvania AVe­ touch of human fraility, Rockefeller's nue were abruptly ended by Nelson Rock­ warmth was punctured by the frailities efeller in 1958. In his new position of his divorce and remarriage. Rocky replaced Dewey as a given in the Republican presidential equation for While Dewey never mastered the art the next two decades. of the general election campaign, Rock- efe11er never mastered the art of pre­ be free from the "bully" image it car­ convention politics. He.became an easy ried into GOP politics for the past 30 target for those Republicans who resen­ years. It would be ironic if stripped ted both New York and Eastern liberal­ of the burdens of leadership, New York ism. Rockefeller became a codeword became a more effective force within for what many southern., midwestern and the GOP. western Republicans disliked about the functioning of the GOP. He was a con­ Internally, the New York Republican venient lightning rod for both conser­ Party is struggling to fill the vacuum vative and geographic static. left by Rockefeller's retirement. GOP State Chairman Richard Rosenbaum and Up until 1964, pragmatic Republican State Vice Chairman Eunice Whittlesey politics required the GOP to consider were chosen in early April to succeed the impact of a potential nominee on Rockefeller's longtime allies on the New York's Electoral College votes. Republican National Committee, George The nomination of Barry Goldwater dem­ Hinman and Dorothy McHugh. A more im­ onstrated the willingness of many Re­ portant choice for the GOP will be' the publicans to write off New York. selection of a successor to Rosenbaum Whereas the traditional conflict with­ as state chairman in June. in the GOP in this century had been between the Midwest (represented by Rosenbaum has effectively dropped Ohio's Robert Taft) and the Northeast the gubernatorial ambitions he once (represented by Dewey and Eisenhower), held to return to the practice of law. 1964 marked an alliance between much The acknowledged frontrunner for the of the Midwest and the South and West. 1978 gubernatorial nomination is Assem­ The regional. fluidity carried over in­ bly Minority Leader Perry Duryea of to the 1968 contest between Nixon, Suffolk County. Duryea, however, is Rockefeller and Reagan. 1976 marked surveying the political landscape be­ the emergence of a new Northeast­ fore committing himself to the race Midwest coalition which parried with against Gov. Hugh Carey(D). Another the South-West coa1it1on of Ronald moderate-conservative, State Senate Reagan. Majority Leader Warren Anderson, is considered Duryea's chief competition With Rockefeller's retirement, many for the post. U.S.Rep. Jack Kemp~ a of the old antagonisms to New York Buffalo area congressman who had been within the national GOP may retire as exploring a gubernatorial race, has well. Symbolically, Rockefeller was now refocused his eyes on the 1980 a political bonanza for his opponents. race for the seat now held by Sen. Ja­ Stimulating such a wide range of ani­ cob Javits. mosities would be a difficult chore for any future New York Republican Any opponent of Gov. Carey will have leader. a tough race. The incumbent Democrat has proven to be much more adept at Without Rockefeller's prestige and poli tical image-building than at the media exposure, the New York GOP may complexities of running the state. temporari 1y ··lose party influence. It Republican legislators tend to talk may be possible for other Northeast wistfully of the forceful Rockefeller Republicans to emerge from the shadow leadership of pas~ legislative ses­ of New York and Rockefeller into the sions. But shou1a Duryea win the gov­ national prominence they could not at­ ernorship, it would bring his impres­ tain so long as Rocky was politically sive powers of both 1eaAership and active. A Republican governor from conciliation to the national Republi­ New Jersey, for example, would auto­ can scene. Duryea's style fits the im­ matically assume greater prominence mediate requirements of New York's place in the post-Rockefeller era. So do in the GOP national firmament. Though senators like Massachusetts' Edward less dramatic than Rockefeller's, it Brooke and Pennsylvania's John Heinz. potentially could be more effective. • In the long run, New York may be able to achieve greater political ef­ RENEW TODAY fectiveness within the GOP. The Northeast-Midwest alliance may be re­ Write: Ripon Society vived in 1980 behind a moderate candi­ 800 18th Street, N.W. date like Illinois Gov. James Thompson. Washington, D.C. 20006 In the immediate future, New York will • Commentary: Foreign Policy TUNING UP THE TRANSATLANTIC ECONOMY by Thomas A. Sargent Almost 30 years have passed since ic and political arrangements. Europe's Secretary of State George C. Marshall prosperity, growth, and stability must delivered his commencement address at occupy the highest place in American Harvard University in which he proposed priorities. the Marshall Plan for the post-war re­ covery of Europe. While European-Amer­ Second, there has undoubtedly been ican r~lationships have changed signif­ a shift in emphasis in Euro-American icantly since the post-war years, Eur­ relations from the political and mili­ ope again looks to the United States tary to the economic. In other words, for leadership and support from the there has been an increasingly politi­ world's most recent recession in 1973- cization of economic relationships be­ 75. tween Europe and the united States. At the European Community Council The Marshall Plan is a forerunner of meeting of heads of government in late such concerns. But until relatively re­ November and during the Mondale Mission cently, this kind of politics was over­ to Europe in January, European leaders shadowed by the military and diplomatic pressed the Carter Administration for problems confronting the alliance. clues to American foreign economic poli­ cy and for support for joint economic The new emphasis on economics re­ growth. flects two fundamental developments: First, political leadership on both How the Carter Administration intends sides of the Atlantic have had to cope to respond to these needs is not yet with economic problems which are in clear. It is not even clear whether or creasingly resistant to traditional not the Carter Administration will re­ economic prescriptions. Second, the spond directly to them at all. The with­ energy crisis spawned by the 1973-74 drawal of the President's proposed $50 oil embargo has added another burden rebate is the sort of response which is to the already overloaded agendas of likely to confuse finance ministries in Western political leaders.