CNN 2020 NH Primary Poll February 10, 2020 SANDERS & BUTTIGIEG OUTPACE REST OF THE FIELD; HALF OF LIKELY VOTERS STILL NOT DEFINITELY DECIDED By: Sean P. McKinley, M.A. [email protected] Zachary S. Azem, M.A. 603-862-2226 Andrew E. Smith, Ph.D. cola.unh.edu/unh-survey-center DURHAM, NH – On the eve of the New Hampshire primary, Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders's slim lead over former South Bend (IN) Mayor Pete Bu gieg among likely Democra c voters is holding in the high single digits. Former Vice President Joe Biden and Massachuse s Senator Elizabeth Warren are vying for third. There has been li le movement over the past six days, with support for each candidate within two percentage points of where each began. Minnesota Senator Amy Klobuchar seems to have benefi ed most from the Democra c debate on February 7, but she remains in fi h place. Half of likely Democra c voters s ll have not definitely decided whom to support. These findings are based on the latest CNN 2020 New Hampshire Primary Poll*, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. Seven hundred five (705) randomly selected New Hampshire adults were interviewed in English by landline and cellular telephone between February 6 and February 9, 2020. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 3.7 percent. Included in the sample were 365 likely 2020 Democra c Primary voters (margin of sampling error +/- 5.1 percent) and 212 likely 2020 Republican Primary voters (margin of sampling error +/- 6.7 percent). Trend points prior to July 2019 reflect results from the Granite State Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. 2020 Democra c Primary Despite vo ng in the New Hampshire presiden al primary beginning in less than twenty-four hours, there remains considerable uncertainty among likely Democra c primary voters as to whom they will vote for; half (50%) say they have definitely decided, largely unchanged compared to the two previous polling periods (Feb 4-7 & Feb 5-8). Twenty-one percent say they are leaning towards someone, while 28% say they are s ll trying to decide. Among likely Democra c primary voters, registered Democrats (52%) and voters who are registered as undeclared (48%) are about equally likely to say they have definitely decided. Definitely Decided on Candidate - Democra c Primary Voters - October 2017 to February 6-9, 2020 100% 94% 91% 85% 87% 80% 77% 78% 60% 64% 57% 51% 53% 49% 50% 40% 23% 31% 28% 20% 30% 28% 20% 21% 13% 14% 21% 10% 20% 19% 19% 8% 16% 5% 9% 0% 4% 5% 8% 5% Oct 2017 Feb 2018 Apr 2018 Aug 2018 Feb 2019 Apr 2019 Jul 2019 Oct 2019 Jan 2020 Feb 4-7 Feb 5-8 Feb 6-9 2020 2020 2020 Definitely Decided Leaning Towards Someone Still Trying To Decide * We ask that this copyrighted informa on be referred to as the CNN 2020 New Hampshire Primary Poll, conducted by the University of New Hampshire Survey Center. If the 2020 New Hampshire Democra c primary were held today, 29% of likely primary voters say they would vote for Sanders, 22% would vote for Bu gieg, 11% would vote for Biden, and 10% would vote for Warren. Seven percent would vote for Klobuchar, 5% would vote for Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard, and 4% would vote for entrepreneur Andrew Yang. One percent say they would vote for businessman Tom Steyer, and less than 1% each would vote for former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg or Colorado Senator Michael Bennet. One percent say they would vote for another candidate while 10% of likely Democra c primary voters say they are undecided. Preferred Democra c 2020 Presiden al Nomina on Candidate - February 6-9, 2020 Bernie Sanders 29% Pete Buttigieg 22% Joe Biden 11% Elizabeth Warren 10% Amy Klobuchar 7% Tulsi Gabbard 5% Andrew Yang 4% Tom Steyer 1% Michael Bloomberg 0% Michael Bennet 0% Other 1% Undecided 10% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% Compared to the period from February 5-8, support for Warren (+1.2 percentage points) has increased very slightly while support for Biden (-1.1) has very slightly declined. Overall, results have remained quite stable over the three most recent survey periods, with support for each candidate remaining within two percentage points of where they began during the February 4-7 polling period. Preferred Democra c 2020 Presiden al Nomina on Candidate - October 2017 to February 6-9, 2020 40% Bernie Sanders 35% Pete Buttigieg Joe Biden 31% 31% 30% 30% Elizabeth Warren 30% 28% 28% 29% 26% Tulsi Gabbard 29% 24% 25% Amy Klobuchar 22% Andrew Yang 24% 24% 21% 21% 19% 19% Tom Steyer 20% 18% 22% 18% 21% Michael Bloomberg 16% 19% 15% 14% 15% Michael Bennet 17% Deval Patrick 13% 12% 15% 15% 12% 15% 11% 11% 10% 12% Undecided 10% 12% 11% 12% 10% 10% 7% 10% 6% 9% 6%9% 9% 8% 7% 5% 5% 4% 2% 4% 4% 1% 3% 0% 1% 1% 0% 1% 1%1% 1% 0% 0% 0 0 0 8 9 0 8 9 8 9 7 9 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 l 7 8 9 r r t t b b n g - - - u c c p p e e a u 4 5 6 J J O O A A F F A b b b e e e F F F Because Michael Bloomberg is not running in the New Hampshire primary, his name was not included in the list of candidates who were read aloud. However, responses from those who volunteered Bloomberg as their choice are included. Deval Patrick was included in the read list of candidates but did not receive support from any respondents. Seven leading Democra c candidates met for a debate in Manchester, New Hampshire, on February 7. Klobuchar (+7.1 percentage points) and Biden (+6.8) have experienced a good deal greater support in the two days a er the debate than they did in the two days leading up to the debate, while Bu gieg (+2.5) and Sanders (+1.5) have seen smaller increases in support a er the debate. Gabbard (-4.6) and Warren (-1.6) meanwhile have fared slightly worse since the debate. Preferred Democra c Candidate During February 6-9, 2020 Period Before and A er Debate Pre-Debate Post-Debate Bernie Sanders 28% 30% Pete Buttigieg 21% 23% Joe Biden 8% 14% Amy Klobuchar 4% 11% Elizabeth Warren 11% 9% Andrew Yang 4% 3% Tulsi Gabbard 7% 2% Michael Bennet 1% Tom Steyer 2% 1% Michael Bloomberg 1% Other 2% 0% Undecided 14% 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Among likely Democra c voters who are self-described liberals, 39% support Sanders, 21% support Bu gieg, 16% support Warren, 7% support Biden, and 5% support Klobuchar. Support for Sanders among this group has declined by six percentage points since the period from February 5-8 while support for Warren (+2.4) has slightly increased. Among self-described moderates and conserva ves, 23% support Bu gieg, 19% support Sanders, 14% support Biden, and 8% each support Klobuchar or Gabbard. While support for Sanders has slightly declined among liberals, his support among moderates and conserva ves has increased such that he now challenges Bu gieg among this group. Biden, who in January was ed with Bu gieg among this group, now sits in third behind Bu gieg as well as Sanders. Preferred Democra c Candidate by Ideology - February 6-9, 2020 Feb 6-9 2020 Bernie Sanders 39% (-6.1%) Pete Buttigieg 21% (1.0%) Elizabeth Warren 16% (2.4%) Joe Biden 7% (2.0%) Liberal Amy Klobuchar 5% (1.3%) Andrew Yang 1% (0.1%) Tulsi Gabbard 1% (-0.1%) Tom Steyer 0% (0.0%) Pete Buttigieg 23% (-0.5%) Bernie Sanders 19% (4.3%) Joe Biden 14% (-1.3%) Amy Klobuchar 8% (0.2%) Moderate or Tulsi Gabbard 8% (-0.3%) Conservative Andrew Yang 5% (0.2%) Elizabeth Warren 4% (-0.3%) Tom Steyer 2% (-1.5%) Michael Bloomberg 1% (-1.1%) Michael Bennet 1% (0.5%) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% Support for Sanders con nues to be highly concentrated among younger voters, par cularly female voters under the age of thirty-five, though he has lost ground among this group since the February 5-8 period. Sanders also leads the field among men aged thirty-five to forty-nine and has increased his share of support among this group by seven percentage points since the last polling period. Bu gieg's support con nues to be more balanced; he leads the field among women aged fi y to sixty-four and closely trails Sanders among men aged fi y to sixty-four and women thirty-five to forty-nine. However, Bu gieg remains a distant second to Sanders among women under thirty-five and men under fi y. Biden now leads the field among men and women aged sixty-five and older, but elsewhere Biden enjoys very li le support. Support for Klobuchar has increased since the February 5-8 period but her supporters are even more concentrated than Biden's among voters fi y and older, par cularly women sixty-five and over. Preferred Democra c Candidate by Gender and Age - February 6-9, 2020 Women Men Bernie Sanders 50% (-14%) 37% (-2%) Pete Buttigieg 13% (2%) 23% (4%) 18 to 34 Elizabeth Warren 16% (5%) 8% (-1%) Joe Biden 9% (4%) 13% (-2%) Bernie Sanders 33% (6%) 51% (7%) Pete Buttigieg 28% (5%) 20% (-3%) 35 to 49 Elizabeth Warren 21% (4%) 8% (0%) Joe Biden 4% (0%) Amy Klobuchar 2% (-5%) Pete Buttigieg 23% (-3%) 23% (0%) Bernie Sanders 18% (6%) 27% (4%) 50 to 64 Amy Klobuchar 10% (-1%) 10% (4%) Elizabeth Warren 8% (2%) 3% (-1%) Joe Biden 6% (-2%) 5% (-5%) Joe Biden 25% (3%) 26% (1%) Pete Buttigieg 20% (-1%) 18% (-7%) 65 and older Amy Klobuchar 18% (4%) 8% (3%) Bernie Sanders 8% (-4%) 11% (3%) Elizabeth Warren 7% (0%) 10% (0%) 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Sanders con nues to lead Bu gieg among men and women without a college degree, with Biden and Warren trailing among both groups.