Perspective & Analysis Focus Asia August 2019 Hong Kong in China’s Geopolitical Gaze Dr. Phil C.W. Chan and Dr. Niklas Swanström return to the ongoing demonstrations in Hong Kong, examining the challenges they present for China. They unravel the international dimensions of Beijing’s approach to the former British colony, arguing that the decisions made by the city’s embattled Chief Executive Carrie Lam and the leadership on the Mainland at this critical juncture will potentially have wide reaching consequences. ong Kong is entering its 12th consecutive In response to the Hong Kong police’s unprecedented week of protests in its “worst crisis”1 since brutality5 and questionable tactics6 in quelling protests its return to China’s sovereignty after 155 across the city on August 11, 20197, protestors occupied Hyears of British colonial rule. The protests began as the Hong Kong International Airport on August 128 Hong Kong government sought to push through an and 139 resulting in hundreds of flight cancellations, extradition Bill that, if passed,2 would empower and clashed with riot police, and detained and assaulted two compel Hong Kong authorities to transfer3 anyone men suspected of being undercover Mainland Chinese in Hong Kong accused of a serious crime committed police officers (as a result of fear of Hong Kong police anywhere to any jurisdiction with which Hong Kong officers’ impersonating10 as protestors). Protestors did not have an extradition agreement, including subsequently apologized in a powerful video11 and Mainland China. They have since metamorphosed pledged12 to reflect on past and future actions. into a generalized movement uniting Hong Kong Beijing, meanwhile, has hardened its rhetoric, people yearning4 for greater government and with thinly veiled threats13 of military intervention police accountability, and for universal suffrage. through three press briefings14 by the State Council’s Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office, a propaganda video15 by the People’s Liberation Army’s Hong Kong Born and raised in Hong Kong, Phil C.W. Chan garrison, and large-scale drills by the paramilitary is Senior Fellow at the Institute for Security and People’s Armed Police16 in Shenzhen across the Development Policy. He is author of the book China, border. It has condemned the protests as bearing State Sovereignty and International Legal Order. “characteristics of a color revolution”17 and “signs of Niklas Swanström is Executive Director of the terrorism”18 that must be punished “without leniency, Institute for Security and Development Policy Institute for Security & Development Policy 2 – August 2019 19 without mercy” . Liu Xiaoming, China’s ambassador The Institute for Security and Development to the United Kingdom, cosignatory to the 1984 Policy is an independent, non-partisan re- 20 Sino-British Joint Declaration that guarantees search and policy organization based in Stock- Hong Kong’s autonomy under the “one-country/two- holm dedicated to expanding understanding system” formula until June 2047, has warned that of international affairs. With its extensive con- 21 Beijing will not “sit on its hands” if protests continue. tact network with partner institutes in Asia, Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor, Hong Kong’s Chief each year ISDP invites a number of visiting re- Executive selected in 2017 with 777 votes22 by a searchers as well as guest authors from the re- 1200-member Election Committee appointed by gion to participate in research, discussion, and Beijing, on August 5 admonished protestors that they exchange with European scholars and policy must not “kamikaze” themselves with Hong Kong (in officials. ISDP’s Focus Asia series serves as a her arsenal of Chinese proverbs: 玉石俱焚23). At her forum for these researchers as well as guest press briefing on August 13 in which she repeatedly authors to provide and clarify their viewpoints evaded questions about whether she was constrained, on the contemporary issues and challenges without Beijing’s approval, from formally withdrawing concerning their countries, adding a much- the Bill (one of protestors’ five demands24), Lam warned needed Asian perspective to the policy and that protestors were pushing Hong Kong onto a “path research debate. of no return”25, to the “abyss”26 and to “annihilation” (her Chinese proverb: 粉身碎骨27). Her ominous For enquiries, please contact: [email protected] words have been echoed elsewhere, with Minxin Pei28 observing that “Hong Kong’s residents would No parts of this paper may be reproduced almost certainly treat Chinese government forces as without ISDP’s permission. invaders, and mount the fiercest possible resistance”. For many of the protestors, protecting Hong Kong’s Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this autonomy and identity29, and its people’s rights and paper are those of the author only and do not freedoms, from further erosion is “now or never”. necessarily reflect those of ISDP or its sponsors. Although freedoms of assembly and of demonstration 40 are protected under the Basic Law30 of Hong Kong incident, and notwithstanding threats from Beijing 41 and the International Covenant31 on Civil and and the police’s newly road-tested water cannons. Political Rights as incorporated in the Hong Kong At least 28 foreign states have issued travel 32 33 Bill of Rights Ordinance , the police banned a advisories42 on Hong Kong (with Singapore43 proposed march from Victoria Park (where annual cautioning against non-essential travel), and the 34 vigils , in remembrance of victims in the crackdown UK Foreign Office has classified44 the crisis in the on Tiananmen Square protests in 1989, take place) international financial hub as a “conflict in fragile to Chater Garden (location of the Hong Kong Court states” alongside Libya, Syria and North Korea. of Final Appeal, and formerly of the Legislative Council) on August 18. The police instead approved The United Nations Office of the High Commissioner only a rally within the confines of Victoria Park. An for Human Rights has condemned45 the Hong Kong estimated 1.7 million ever-creative35 “Be Water”36 police’s use of tear gas46 inside subway stations. Foreign protestors “complied” with the police’s restricted states including the UK47, Australia,48 Canada49, approval by entering the park from Fortress Hill (not France50, Germany51 and the United States52, as well far from North Point37 where attacks by suspected as the European Union53, have called for restraint and triad members38 from China’s Fujian province took dialogues between protestors and the Hong Kong place on August 5), congregating at the rally and government. President Donald Trump went so far dispersing towards Chater Garden in a river of as to urge54 President Xi Jinping to personally meet umbrellas amid hours of pouring rain39, without protestors, which, in China’s and Hong Kong’s political The Institute for Security and Development Policy – www.isdp.eu Hong Kong in China’s Geopolitical Gaze– 3 culture of Confucian authoritarianism55 in which the world”. With the Hong Kong protests posing a old are wise and the young immature and uninformed, direct challenge74 not only to the legitimacy of the is decidedly unlikely. (Furthermore, lest one forget, Chinese Communist Party as China’s unifying force, the last time a Chinese statesman personally met but also to Xi’s personal credibility75 as a strongman student protestors ended in the statesman, General and his vision76 of China’s “great rejuvenation”, Secretary Zhao Ziyang56, purged and placed under markets77 and newsrooms78 around the world are house arrest for over 15 years following Tiananmen.) jittery about the likelihood of military intervention by Beijing, especially as October 179, China’s 70th As is to be expected when it comes to issues of human National Day, approaches. In addition to seeking rights or democracy,57 Beijing has condemned any to discredit protestors in Hong Kong, Beijing’s expressions of concern about the crisis in Hong disinformation80 campaign on social media (without Kong from any foreign states, especially the UK and irony, via channels including Facebook and Twitter the United States, as interference in China’s state that are banned in Mainland China) is, arguably, sovereignty58 and internal affairs. Having described in paving the way for eventual intervention by force. 2017 the Sino-British Joint Declaration as “a historical document59, no longer [having] any realistic meaning”, The Hong Kong protests certainly could not have Beijing demanded60 that the UK “refrain from saying come at a worse time for Beijing. In its expansive or doing anything that interferes or undermines the exercise of state sovereignty in achieving its vision rule of law in Hong Kong”. Since the crisis erupted of China as a superpower, Beijing is mired in an in June, Trump sought to placate61 Beijing, despite escalating trade war with the United States, when urgings from members of the United States Congress China’s economy is contracting81. Its signature foreign in both Republican and Democratic parties, and from policy, the Belt and Road initiative, has encountered officials at the State Department and the White House. roadblocks82 from partners and been accused of In early August, Trump described the Hong Kong being a “debt trap”83 for developing states, while its protests as “riots”62 and as China’s internal matter. disputes84 with neighboring states over the East China Ever the archetypal dealmaker, Trump on August Sea and the South China Sea continue to deepen. 14 tied63 a United States–China trade