DOCSLIB.ORG

Institute for Security & Development Policy Hong Kong in China's Geopolitical Gaze

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Institute for Security & Development Policy Hong Kong in China's Geopolitical Gaze Perspective & Analysis Focus Asia August 2019 Hong Kong in China’s Geopolitical Gaze Dr. Phil C.W. Chan and Dr. Niklas Swanström return to the ongoing demonstrations in Hong Kong, examining the challenges they present for China. They unravel the international dimensions of Beijing’s approach to the former British colony, arguing that the decisions made by the city’s embattled Chief Executive Carrie Lam and the leadership on the Mainland at this critical juncture will potentially have wide reaching consequences. ong Kong is entering its 12th consecutive In response to the Hong Kong police’s unprecedented week of protests in its “worst crisis”1 since brutality5 and questionable tactics6 in quelling protests its return to China’s sovereignty after 155 across the city on August 11, 20197, protestors occupied Hyears of British colonial rule. The protests began as the Hong Kong International Airport on August 128 Hong Kong government sought to push through an and 139 resulting in hundreds of flight cancellations, extradition Bill that, if passed,2 would empower and clashed with riot police, and detained and assaulted two compel Hong Kong authorities to transfer3 anyone men suspected of being undercover Mainland Chinese in Hong Kong accused of a serious crime committed police officers (as a result of fear of Hong Kong police anywhere to any jurisdiction with which Hong Kong officers’ impersonating10 as protestors). Protestors did not have an extradition agreement, including subsequently apologized in a powerful video11 and Mainland China. They have since metamorphosed pledged12 to reflect on past and future actions. into a generalized movement uniting Hong Kong Beijing, meanwhile, has hardened its rhetoric, people yearning4 for greater government and with thinly veiled threats13 of military intervention police accountability, and for universal suffrage. through three press briefings14 by the State Council’s Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office, a propaganda video15 by the People’s Liberation Army’s Hong Kong Born and raised in Hong Kong, Phil C.W. Chan garrison, and large-scale drills by the paramilitary is Senior Fellow at the Institute for Security and People’s Armed Police16 in Shenzhen across the Development Policy. He is author of the book China, border. It has condemned the protests as bearing State Sovereignty and International Legal Order. “characteristics of a color revolution”17 and “signs of Niklas Swanström is Executive Director of the terrorism”18 that must be punished “without leniency, Institute for Security and Development Policy Institute for Security & Development Policy 2 – August 2019 19 without mercy” . Liu Xiaoming, China’s ambassador The Institute for Security and Development to the United Kingdom, cosignatory to the 1984 Policy is an independent, non-partisan re- 20 Sino-British Joint Declaration that guarantees search and policy organization based in Stock- Hong Kong’s autonomy under the “one-country/two- holm dedicated to expanding understanding system” formula until June 2047, has warned that of international affairs. With its extensive con- 21 Beijing will not “sit on its hands” if protests continue. tact network with partner institutes in Asia, Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor, Hong Kong’s Chief each year ISDP invites a number of visiting re- Executive selected in 2017 with 777 votes22 by a searchers as well as guest authors from the re- 1200-member Election Committee appointed by gion to participate in research, discussion, and Beijing, on August 5 admonished protestors that they exchange with European scholars and policy must not “kamikaze” themselves with Hong Kong (in officials. ISDP’s Focus Asia series serves as a her arsenal of Chinese proverbs: 玉石俱焚23). At her forum for these researchers as well as guest press briefing on August 13 in which she repeatedly authors to provide and clarify their viewpoints evaded questions about whether she was constrained, on the contemporary issues and challenges without Beijing’s approval, from formally withdrawing concerning their countries, adding a much- the Bill (one of protestors’ five demands24), Lam warned needed Asian perspective to the policy and that protestors were pushing Hong Kong onto a “path research debate. of no return”25, to the “abyss”26 and to “annihilation” (her Chinese proverb: 粉身碎骨27). Her ominous For enquiries, please contact: [email protected] words have been echoed elsewhere, with Minxin Pei28 observing that “Hong Kong’s residents would No parts of this paper may be reproduced almost certainly treat Chinese government forces as without ISDP’s permission. invaders, and mount the fiercest possible resistance”. For many of the protestors, protecting Hong Kong’s Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this autonomy and identity29, and its people’s rights and paper are those of the author only and do not freedoms, from further erosion is “now or never”. necessarily reflect those of ISDP or its sponsors. Although freedoms of assembly and of demonstration 40 are protected under the Basic Law30 of Hong Kong incident, and notwithstanding threats from Beijing 41 and the International Covenant31 on Civil and and the police’s newly road-tested water cannons. Political Rights as incorporated in the Hong Kong At least 28 foreign states have issued travel 32 33 Bill of Rights Ordinance , the police banned a advisories42 on Hong Kong (with Singapore43 proposed march from Victoria Park (where annual cautioning against non-essential travel), and the 34 vigils , in remembrance of victims in the crackdown UK Foreign Office has classified44 the crisis in the on Tiananmen Square protests in 1989, take place) international financial hub as a “conflict in fragile to Chater Garden (location of the Hong Kong Court states” alongside Libya, Syria and North Korea. of Final Appeal, and formerly of the Legislative Council) on August 18. The police instead approved The United Nations Office of the High Commissioner only a rally within the confines of Victoria Park. An for Human Rights has condemned45 the Hong Kong estimated 1.7 million ever-creative35 “Be Water”36 police’s use of tear gas46 inside subway stations. Foreign protestors “complied” with the police’s restricted states including the UK47, Australia,48 Canada49, approval by entering the park from Fortress Hill (not France50, Germany51 and the United States52, as well far from North Point37 where attacks by suspected as the European Union53, have called for restraint and triad members38 from China’s Fujian province took dialogues between protestors and the Hong Kong place on August 5), congregating at the rally and government. President Donald Trump went so far dispersing towards Chater Garden in a river of as to urge54 President Xi Jinping to personally meet umbrellas amid hours of pouring rain39, without protestors, which, in China’s and Hong Kong’s political The Institute for Security and Development Policy – www.isdp.eu Hong Kong in China’s Geopolitical Gaze– 3 culture of Confucian authoritarianism55 in which the world”. With the Hong Kong protests posing a old are wise and the young immature and uninformed, direct challenge74 not only to the legitimacy of the is decidedly unlikely. (Furthermore, lest one forget, Chinese Communist Party as China’s unifying force, the last time a Chinese statesman personally met but also to Xi’s personal credibility75 as a strongman student protestors ended in the statesman, General and his vision76 of China’s “great rejuvenation”, Secretary Zhao Ziyang56, purged and placed under markets77 and newsrooms78 around the world are house arrest for over 15 years following Tiananmen.) jittery about the likelihood of military intervention by Beijing, especially as October 179, China’s 70th As is to be expected when it comes to issues of human National Day, approaches. In addition to seeking rights or democracy,57 Beijing has condemned any to discredit protestors in Hong Kong, Beijing’s expressions of concern about the crisis in Hong disinformation80 campaign on social media (without Kong from any foreign states, especially the UK and irony, via channels including Facebook and Twitter the United States, as interference in China’s state that are banned in Mainland China) is, arguably, sovereignty58 and internal affairs. Having described in paving the way for eventual intervention by force. 2017 the Sino-British Joint Declaration as “a historical document59, no longer [having] any realistic meaning”, The Hong Kong protests certainly could not have Beijing demanded60 that the UK “refrain from saying come at a worse time for Beijing. In its expansive or doing anything that interferes or undermines the exercise of state sovereignty in achieving its vision rule of law in Hong Kong”. Since the crisis erupted of China as a superpower, Beijing is mired in an in June, Trump sought to placate61 Beijing, despite escalating trade war with the United States, when urgings from members of the United States Congress China’s economy is contracting81. Its signature foreign in both Republican and Democratic parties, and from policy, the Belt and Road initiative, has encountered officials at the State Department and the White House. roadblocks82 from partners and been accused of In early August, Trump described the Hong Kong being a “debt trap”83 for developing states, while its protests as “riots”62 and as China’s internal matter. disputes84 with neighboring states over the East China Ever the archetypal dealmaker, Trump on August Sea and the South China Sea continue to deepen. 14 tied63 a United States–China trade
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Hong Kong’S Summer of Protest
    TABLE OF CONTENTS Video Summary & Related Content 3 Video Review 4 Before Viewing 5 While Viewing 6 Talk Prompts 8 After Viewing 12 The Story 14 ACTIVITY #1: Protest tactics 19 ACTIVITY #2: Types of Government 22 Sources 23 Video Review – While Viewing (Responses) 24 CREDITS News in Review is produced by Visit www.curio.ca/newsinreview for an archive CBC NEWS and curio.ca of all previous News In Review seasons. As a companion resource, go to www.cbc.ca/news GUIDE for additional articles. Writer/editor: Sean Dolan Additional editing: Michaël Elbaz CBC authorizes reproduction of material VIDEO contained in this guide for educational Host: Michael Serapio purposes. Please identify source. Senior Producer: Jordanna Lake News In Review is distributed by: Supervising Manager: Laraine Bone curio.ca | CBC Media Solutions © 2019 Canadian Broadcasting Corporation BATTLING BEIJING: Hong Kong’s Summer of Protest Video duration – 14:48 In the spring of 2019 Beijing announced an extradition bill that would have allowed Hong Kong residents to be extradited and tried in Communist mainland China. That led to growing protests demanding the withdrawal of the bill. Frustrations mounted and so did the use of force on both sides. As crowds grew into the millions, Chinese officials used tear gas, water canons and rubber bullets, eventually resorting to the threat of military intervention to quelch demonstrations. Thirteen weeks in and the citizens of Hong Kong remained steadfast. Then, on September 3rd the Beijing government bowed to the protestors' primary demand and the bill was withdrawn. But where that leaves Hong Kong now remains unclear.
    [Show full text]
  • Treasury Reporting Rates of Exchange As of March 31, 1994
    iP.P* r>« •ini u U U ;/ '00 TREASURY REPORTING RATES OF EXCHANGE AS OF MARCH 31, 1994 DEPARTMENT OF THE TREASURY Financial Management Service FORWARD This report promulgates exchange rate information pursuant to Section 613 of P.L. 87-195 dated September 4, 1961 (22 USC 2363 (b)) which grants the Secretary of the Treasury "sole authority to establish for all foreign currencies or credits the exchange rates at which such currencies are to be reported by all agencies of the Government". The primary purpose of this report is to insure that foreign currency reports prepared by agencies shall be consistent with regularly published Treasury foreign currency reports as to amounts stated in foreign currency units and U.S. dollar equivalents. This covers all foreign currencies in which the U.S. Government has an interest, including receipts and disbursements, accrued revenues and expenditures, authorizations, obligations, receivables and payables, refunds, and similar reverse transaction items. Exceptions to using the reporting rates as shown in the report are collections and refunds to be valued at specified rates set by international agreements, conversions of one foreign currency into another, foreign currencies sold for dollars, and other types of transactions affecting dollar appropriations. (See Volume I Treasury Financial Manual 2-3200 for further details). This quarterly report reflects exchange rates at which the U.S. Government can acquire foreign currencies for official expenditures as reported by disbursing officers for each post on the last business day of the month prior to the date of the published report. Example: The quarterly report as of December 31, will reflect exchange rates reported by disbursing offices as of November 30.
    [Show full text]
  • The Diminishing Power and Democracy of Hong Kong: an Analysis of Hong Kong's Umbrella Movement and the Anti-Extradition Law Amendment Bill Movement
    Portland State University PDXScholar University Honors Theses University Honors College Summer 2021 The Diminishing Power and Democracy of Hong Kong: An Analysis of Hong Kong's Umbrella Movement and the Anti-Extradition Law Amendment Bill Movement Xiao Lin Kuang Portland State University Follow this and additional works at: https://pdxscholar.library.pdx.edu/honorstheses Part of the Asian Studies Commons, and the Other International and Area Studies Commons Let us know how access to this document benefits ou.y Recommended Citation Kuang, Xiao Lin, "The Diminishing Power and Democracy of Hong Kong: An Analysis of Hong Kong's Umbrella Movement and the Anti-Extradition Law Amendment Bill Movement" (2021). University Honors Theses. Paper 1126. https://doi.org/10.15760/honors.1157 This Thesis is brought to you for free and open access. It has been accepted for inclusion in University Honors Theses by an authorized administrator of PDXScholar. Please contact us if we can make this document more accessible: [email protected]. The diminishing power and democracy of Hong Kong: an analysis of Hong Kong’s Umbrella Movement and the Anti-extradition Law Amendment Bill Movement by Xiao Lin Kuang An undergraduate honors thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the Requirements for the degree of Bachelor of Arts In University Honors And International Development Studies And Chinese Thesis Adviser Maureen Hickey Portland State University 2021 The diminishing power and democracy of Hong Kong Kuang 1 Abstract The future of Hong Kong – one of the most valuable economic port cities in the world – has been a key political issue since the Opium Wars (1839—1860).
    [Show full text]
  • Congressional-Executive Commission on China Annual Report 2019
    CONGRESSIONAL-EXECUTIVE COMMISSION ON CHINA ANNUAL REPORT 2019 ONE HUNDRED SIXTEENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION NOVEMBER 18, 2019 Printed for the use of the Congressional-Executive Commission on China ( Available via the World Wide Web: https://www.cecc.gov VerDate Nov 24 2008 13:38 Nov 18, 2019 Jkt 036743 PO 00000 Frm 00001 Fmt 6011 Sfmt 5011 G:\ANNUAL REPORT\ANNUAL REPORT 2019\2019 AR GPO FILES\FRONTMATTER.TXT CONGRESSIONAL-EXECUTIVE COMMISSION ON CHINA ANNUAL REPORT 2019 ONE HUNDRED SIXTEENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION NOVEMBER 18, 2019 Printed for the use of the Congressional-Executive Commission on China ( Available via the World Wide Web: https://www.cecc.gov U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE 36–743 PDF WASHINGTON : 2019 VerDate Nov 24 2008 13:38 Nov 18, 2019 Jkt 036743 PO 00000 Frm 00003 Fmt 5011 Sfmt 5011 G:\ANNUAL REPORT\ANNUAL REPORT 2019\2019 AR GPO FILES\FRONTMATTER.TXT CONGRESSIONAL-EXECUTIVE COMMISSION ON CHINA LEGISLATIVE BRANCH COMMISSIONERS House Senate JAMES P. MCGOVERN, Massachusetts, MARCO RUBIO, Florida, Co-chair Chair JAMES LANKFORD, Oklahoma MARCY KAPTUR, Ohio TOM COTTON, Arkansas THOMAS SUOZZI, New York STEVE DAINES, Montana TOM MALINOWSKI, New Jersey TODD YOUNG, Indiana BEN MCADAMS, Utah DIANNE FEINSTEIN, California CHRISTOPHER SMITH, New Jersey JEFF MERKLEY, Oregon BRIAN MAST, Florida GARY PETERS, Michigan VICKY HARTZLER, Missouri ANGUS KING, Maine EXECUTIVE BRANCH COMMISSIONERS Department of State, To Be Appointed Department of Labor, To Be Appointed Department of Commerce, To Be Appointed At-Large, To Be Appointed At-Large, To Be Appointed JONATHAN STIVERS, Staff Director PETER MATTIS, Deputy Staff Director (II) VerDate Nov 24 2008 13:38 Nov 18, 2019 Jkt 036743 PO 00000 Frm 00004 Fmt 0486 Sfmt 0486 G:\ANNUAL REPORT\ANNUAL REPORT 2019\2019 AR GPO FILES\FRONTMATTER.TXT C O N T E N T S Page I.
    [Show full text]
  • Hong Kong's 2019 Turmoil: a Dismal Future?
    www.rsis.edu.sg No. 197 – 7 October 2019 RSIS Commentary is a platform to provide timely and, where appropriate, policy-relevant commentary and analysis of topical and contemporary issues. The authors’ views are their own and do not represent the official position of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, NTU. These commentaries may be reproduced with prior permission from RSIS and due recognition to the author(s) and RSIS. Please email to Mr Yang Razali Kassim, Editor RSIS Commentary at [email protected]. Hong Kong’s 2019 Turmoil: A Dismal Future? By KB Teo SYNOPSIS As Hong Kong’s political crisis deepens, what are the options open to Beijing and what are the priority issues for the Hong Kong leadership? COMMENTARY THE TURMOIL currently sweeping Hong Kong is driven primarily by four main causes. One, fear of Beijing’s growing control. Two, concern over the erosion of its “freedoms and autonomy”. Three, the very high costs of living. Four, Western interference. Under the 30 June 1997 China-UK Handover Agreement, Beijing promised to maintain Hong Kong's "autonomy" for 50 years in three areas: freedom of speech, assembly, and religion. Today, Hong Kong is less important to China. Fear over China’s Growing Control In 1997, Hong Kong accounted for 20% of China's GDP. The proportion now is 5%, with the rise of Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Chongqing. Shenzhen is becoming the high- tech centre of the world. In 1997, Hong Kong handled 50% of China's foreign trade. Today, it is only 12%. Hong Kong's per-capita income used to be 35 times higher than China's.
    [Show full text]
  • BULLETIN CZECHOSLOV Akla - President: Dr
    ISSN 0739-1390 ICTM NATIONAL COMMITTEES AUSTRALIA - Chairman: Dr. Stephen Wild Musicological Society of Australia, GPO Box 2404, Canberra, ACT 2601 BULGARIA -SuiuznaBulgarskiteKompositori, 2 Ivan Vazov, Sofia 1000 BULLETIN CZECHOSLOV AKlA - President: Dr. Oskar Elschek SA V, Umenovedny Ustav, Fajnorovo nabr.l, 884 16 Bratislava DENMARK - President: Dr.Lisbet Torp of the Dansk Selskab fl<'rTraditionel Musikog Dans, Kzrsangervej 23, OK -2400 CopenhagenNV FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF GERMANY- Chairman: Prof. Dr. Marianne Brocker Abt. Volksmusik, UniversitatBamberg, Feldkirchenstr. 21, 0-8600 Bamberg INTERNATIONAL COUNCIL FINLAND - Secretariat Kansanmusiikin Keslcusliitto, P.O.Box 19, SF-0053I Helsinki 53 HUNGARY - Secretary: Prof. Laszlo Vik:ir for MT A, Zenetudomanyi 1ntezet, Pf. 28, H-1250 Budapest IT AL Y - Chairman: Prof. Tullia Magrini TRADITIONAL MUSIC clo DipartimentodiMusica,ViaGalliera 3,140121 Bologna JAMAICA - Chairman: Dr. Olive Lewin Institute of Jamaica, 12 East Street, Kingston R.O.KOREA - Chairman: Prof. Hahn Man-young College of Music, SeoulNationalUniversity,Seoul 151 NETHERLANDS - President: Or. Wim van Zanten Nl.VerenigingEtnomusicologie· AmoldBake',POB l0088,NL-lOOI EB Amsterdam No. LXXVIII NORWAY -President: Bjem Aksdal Norskfolkemusikklag, Radet f. Folkemusikk og Folkedans, N -7055 Dragvoll April 1991 OMAN - Oman Centre for Traditional Music, P.O.B.2000, Seeb POLAND - President: Prof. Anna Czekanowska Institute of Musicology , Warsaw University, 02-089 Warsaw ROMANIA - President: Prof. Tiberiu Alexandru 1ntr. Tirgu-FrumosNr.7, #20, R-75357 Bucuresti SWEDEN - President: Or. Krister MaIm I With c/o Musikmuseet, Box 16326, S-103 26 Stockholm Preliminary Program of the SWITZERLAND - President: Dr. Brigitte Bachmann-Geiser Sonnenbergrain 6, CH-3013 Bern 1991 CONFERENCE UNION OF SOVIET SOCIALIST REPUBLICS - President: Tikhon Khrennikov Union of Composers of the USSR, ul.
    [Show full text]
  • Insights for Intra-Party Tensions?
    Hong Kong as a proxy battlefield Insights for Intra-Party tensions? Zhang Xiaoming 张晓明, the director of the State Council Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office 国务 院港澳办, was replaced a few days ago, as vice-director of the small leading group of the same name, by the current Minister of Public Security, Zhao Kezhi 赵克志. That said, it seems Hong Kong’s issues run deeper than just a few personnel appointments. Is the special administrative zone becoming a proxy battleground for opposing political forces inside the Party? The timeline and people involved suggest that parts of the ongoing crisis might have been made by design by outgoing political networks amid the anti-corruption campaign. From the selection of Carrie Lam 林郑月娥, the underpinnings of the Hong Kong and Macau affairs system, to the bid for the London Stock Exchange, there is more than meets the eye. The “Manchurian” Candidate and the Jiangpai From the beginning, the opinion was that Madame Lam would be a short-live replacement for Liang Zhenying 梁振英. Carrie Lam, who actually joined the protest – even for a brief moment – for universal suffrage back in 2014, stayed close to the negotiation with Beijing, unlike some of her counterparts who were refused entry in Shenzhen back in 2015. She then became one of the favorite faces of the administration, especially in late 2016, when Liang Zhenying1 announced he would not be running for re-election. Liang, a representative of the “old regime” – associated with both Zeng Qinghong 曾庆红2 and Zhang Dejiang 张德江, was creating issues leading to the deterioration of the situation in Hong Kong (i.e.
    [Show full text]
  • Transforming Hong Kong Through Entrepreneurship
    Transforming Hong Kong Through Entrepreneurship kpmg.com/cn ent-fund.org 01 Foreword KPMG China Hong Kong is standing at a crossroad. Its economy experienced 4.7% year-on-year growth in 2018, contributed primarily by its four pillars of tourism, professional and producer services, financial services as well as trade and logistics. Yet in spite of the continued success of its core industries, the city is also actively seeking to ’become an international innovation and technology hub‘, as shown by Chief Executive Carrie Lam’s October 2017 Policy Address. In light of such ambitions, KPMG Irene Chu China is collaborating with Alibaba Hong Kong Entrepreneurs Fund to keep track of the city’s entrepreneurial development trajectory and initiate an annual review of the Partner, Head of domestic entrepreneurial landscape. New Economy and Life Sciences Our inaugural study, Transforming Hong Kong Through entrepreneurship, engaged Hong Kong both existing and aspiring entrepreneurs to gain their views on the sector’s potential KPMG China challenges, opportunities as well as possible solutions to accelerate growth. It also sought the views of key thought leaders in the industry, academic and public services to gain additional insights from a wider perspective. Having a dynamic entrepreneurial landscape is vital to Hong Kong’s long-term development as it can generate significant positive impacts on the economy, the society and improve its overall attractiveness. In addition, Hong Kong start-ups have the potential to benefit from the opportunities arising with China’s rise as a technology and innovation powerhouse and strategic policies such as the Belt and Road Initiative and the Greater Bay Area.
    [Show full text]
  • U.S.-China Relations
    U.S.-China Relations Updated September 3, 2019 Congressional Research Service https://crsreports.congress.gov R45898 SUMMARY R45898 U.S.-China Relations September 3, 2019 The United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC or China) are involved in a prolonged stand-off over trade and in competition that is spilling from political and military areas Susan V. Lawrence, into a growing number of other spheres, including technology, finance, and education, severely Coordinator straining ties on the 40th anniversary of the two countries’ establishment of diplomatic relations. Specialist in Asian Affairs The two lead the world in the size of their economies, their defense budgets, and their global greenhouse gas emissions. Both countries are permanent members of the United Nations (U.N.) Security Council. In 2018, they were each other’s largest trading partners. Caitlin Campbell Analyst in Asian Affairs During the Trump Administration, competition has dominated the relationship and areas of cooperation have shrunk. The 2017 National Security Strategy (NSS) describes both China and Rachel F. Fefer Russia as seeking to “challenge American power, influence, and interests, attempting to erode Analyst in International American security and prosperity.” To pressure China to change its economic practices, the Trade and Finance United States has imposed tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of U.S. imports from China, with almost all imports from China scheduled to be subject to additional tariffs by December 15, Jane A. Leggett 2019. U.S. tariffs and China’s retaliatory tariffs have reordered global supply chains and hit U.S. Specialist in Energy and farmers and manufacturers particularly hard.
    [Show full text]
  • What If the Hong Kong Dollar Repegs to the Renminbi?
    Market Views – July 2020 WHAT IF THE HONG KONG DOLLAR REPEGS TO THE RENMINBI? Russell Clark’s Market Views “If US sanctions deny Hong Kong access to the US dollar, it could repeg to the Chinese Yuan. How would this impact dual listed equities?” The Trump Administration is considering sanctions against China and Hong Kong due to the imposition of their national security laws. The Hong Kong Autonomy act (HR7440) includes provisions to limit Hong Kong banks access to the US dollar. Hong Kong has a peg to the US dollar with local rates typically following US rates, apart from periods of Asian currency strength or weakness. Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor), London Interbank Offered Rate (Libor) If Hong Kong was denied access to US dollar under US sanctions, it could repeg to the Chinese Yuan. If this were to happen, the first change would be that Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate (Hibor) rates would need to move close to Chinese Shanghai Interbank Offered Rates (Shibor). At current rates, this would mean that Hong Kong interest rates would rise, potentially negatively for property in Hong Kong, but the higher interest rate would help stabilise the exchange rate. RUSSELL CLARK – MARKET VIEWS RUSSELL CLARK – WHAT IF THE HONG KONG DOLLAR REPEGS TO THE RENMINBI? There are currently restrictions on the Chinese capital account. Perhaps the bigger question would be whether China would impose capital flow restrictions on the Hong Kong dollar, or whether the repegging of the Hong Kong dollar to the Renminbi would coincide with a general loosening of capital account restriction in mainland China? If the US dollar weakened, China opening its capital account becomes more likely.
    [Show full text]
  • Before the Fall: Were East Asian Currencies Overvalued?
    Emerging Markets Review 1Ž. 2000 101᎐126 Before the fall: were East Asian currencies overvalued? Menzie D. ChinnU Council of Economic Ad¨isers, Rm 328, Eisenhower Executi¨e Office Bldg., Washington, DC 20502, USA Received 10 October 1999; received in revised form 4 February 2000; accepted 5 April 2000 Abstract Two major approaches to identifying the equilibrium exchange rate are implemented. First, the concept of purchasing power parityŽ. PPP is tested and used to define the equilibrium real exchange rate for the Hong Kong dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Korean won, Malaysian ringgit, Philippine peso, Singapore dollar, New Taiwanese dollar and the Thai baht. The calculated PPP rates are then used to evaluate whether these seven East Asian currencies were overvalued. A variety of econometric techniques and price deflators are used. As of May 1997, the HK$, baht, ringgit and peso were overvalued according to this criterion. The evidence is mixed regarding the Indonesian rupiah and NT$. Second, a monetary model of exchange rates, augmented by a proxy variable for productivity trends, is estimated for five currencies. An overvaluation for the rupiah and baht is indicated, although only in the latter case is the overvaluation substantialŽ. 17% . The won, Singapore dollar and especially the NT$ appear undervalued according to these models. ᮊ 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classifications: F31; F41; F47 Keywords: Equilibrium exchange rates; Overvaluation; Purchasing power parity U Tel.: q1-202-395-3310; fax: q1-202-395-6583. E-mail address: [email protected]Ž. M.D. Chinn . 1566-0141r00r$ - see front matter ᮊ 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.
    [Show full text]
  • Hong Kong's Civil Disobedience Under China's Authoritarianism
    Emory International Law Review Volume 35 Issue 1 2021 Hong Kong's Civil Disobedience Under China's Authoritarianism Shucheng Wang Follow this and additional works at: https://scholarlycommons.law.emory.edu/eilr Recommended Citation Shucheng Wang, Hong Kong's Civil Disobedience Under China's Authoritarianism, 35 Emory Int'l L. Rev. 21 (2021). Available at: https://scholarlycommons.law.emory.edu/eilr/vol35/iss1/2 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Journals at Emory Law Scholarly Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in Emory International Law Review by an authorized editor of Emory Law Scholarly Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. WANG_2.9.21 2/10/2021 1:03 PM HONG KONG’S CIVIL DISOBEDIENCE UNDER CHINA’S AUTHORITARIANISM Shucheng Wang∗ ABSTRACT Acts of civil disobedience have significantly impacted Hong Kong’s liberal constitutional order, existing as it does under China’s authoritarian governance. Existing theories of civil disobedience have primarily paid attention to the situations of liberal democracies but find it difficult to explain the unique case of the semi-democracy of Hong Kong. Based on a descriptive analysis of the practice of civil disobedience in Hong Kong, taking the Occupy Central Movement (OCM) of 2014 and the Anti-Extradition Law Amendment Bill (Anti-ELAB) movement of 2019 as examples, this Article explores the extent to which and how civil disobedience can be justified in Hong Kong’s rule of law- based order under China’s authoritarian system, and further aims to develop a conditional theory of civil disobedience for Hong Kong that goes beyond traditional liberal accounts.
    [Show full text]