The National Human sibility for the opinions Development Report expressed in this doc- for 1999 was produced ument and the accu- with the organisational racy of the data pre- and technical support sented in it. The of the UN/UNDP views expressed in Office in Belarus this publication are under the auspices of exclusively those of the the UNDP project authors and are not neces- BYE/96/004/C/01/99 sarily shared by the United "Strengthening the System to Nations, the UN Development Prepare National Human Deve- Programme, or the organisations lopment Reports in the Republic with which the authors are affiliat- of Belarus . This is the fifth ed. national report. Its preparation This_ edition is not protected by involved Belarus national co-ordi- copyright and may be reproduced nators and contributors to the pre- without the prior permission of vious reports, as well as a number the UNDP, providing that the of independent experts. source is acknowledged. The authors assume full respon- Comments and further information can be obtained at the following address: UNITED NATIONS OFFICE IN THE REPUBLIC OF BELARUS 17, Kirov Street, sixth floor 220000 Minsk, Republic of Belarus Tel: (375-17) 2278149 Fax: (375-17) 2260340 E-mail: [email protected] WWW Home Page: http://www.un.minsk.by/hdr/hdr99 ISBN 985-6493-02-1 Head of publishing team: Nadezda Kupchenya Design: Igor Demkovsky Editors: Nadezda Kupchenya, Olga Beliaevskaya Computer layout: Sergei Kozyrefr English translation: Alexander Piskoimov Printed in Belarus by Tarpey Printing House Foreword We present the fifth National Human Development Report. It covers the events of 1998 and discusses the transition to sustainable development during the last five years. 1998 was a difficult year for the government and people. Despite a number of positive devel- opments in the economy, social sector and environment, the nation faced some difficulties, especially in the second half of the year, caused mainly by the financial crisis that affected the global economy and the CIS. However, as a result of meaningful efforts by (he government and NGOs, the nation has succeeded in maintaining economic growth, increasing investments in the manufacturing sector and boosting real incomes. However, starting from the third quarter of 1998, output growth slowed down considerably, accompanied by a reduction in economic efficiency. This development affected all components of the macroeconomic infrastructure. The GDP growth rate slowed down from 12% in the first half of 1997 to 6% in the third quarter and 5% in the last quarter of 1998, relative to similar peri- ods of the previous year. The average rate of GDP growth in 1998 was 8%, which conforms to the annual target. Industrial output gained 13.5% in the first half of 1998, 6.0% in the third quar- ter and 11.0% in the last quarter of 1998, averaging 11.0%, and capital investments 29%, 21.4% and 16%, respectively. The consumer price index grew 2.8 times relative to December 1997, and the rouble-to-dollar exchange rate more than 2.5 times. Foreign trade turnover gained 13.9% in the first half of 1998. However, by the end of 1998, it had fallen 2.9% relative to the end of the previous year. However, as a result of concerted and well-targeted efforts by the state, the socio-economic development targets were met in almost all areas, with the exception of agricultural output, housing construction, foreign trade turnover and rate of inflation. In foreign policies, the adoption of a declaration of unity of Belarus and Russia on December 25,1998 was the crucial event of the past year. The report addresses sustainable development issues and state sustainable development poli- cies against the background of these events. Similar to the previous reports, it has been pre- pared by a group of independent local experts, whose views do not necessarily represent the position of the Belarusian government. It should also be mentioned that the previous reports were well received by the public and have played an important role in involving large numbers of academics and professionals in the debate on sustainable development. It is hoped that this National Report will be positively received by the state institutions and NGOs and contribute to Belarus' transition to sustainable development. Minsk, April 1999 Vladimir Shimov, Minister of Economy of the Republic of Belarus 3 Authors Vladimir Shimov - National Coordinator, Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Minister of Economy of the Republic of Belarus Lev Krukov - Project Manager, Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Academician (Belarus Academy of Engineering), Director of the Institute of Economic Research of the Ministry of Economy ON CHAPTER CONTRIBUTORS: Anatoly Bogdanovich - Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Deputy Director of the Institute of Economic Research of the Ministry of Economy (chapters 2.7, 3.1, 3.3, 4.1, scientific editing) Ivan Basetsky - Doctor of Sciences (Law), Professor, Deputy Director of Belarus Police Academy (fighting crime and coraiption) Calina Casuk - Deputy Minister of Statistics and Analysis (chapter 1.3, supplement, statis- tical support) Ruslan Crebennikov - Doctor of Sciences (Sociology), Professor of Belarus University of Culture (national and cultural policies) Irina lodo - Doctor of Sciences (Architecture), Academician-Secretary of Belarus Academy of Architecture, Professor of Belarus State Polytechnical Academy (Chapter 1.1, 1.2, 2.8) Lev Krukov -Candidate of Sciences (Economics) Academician (Belarus Academy of Engineering), Director of the Institute of Economic Research of the Ministry of Economy (introduction, chapters 1.1,1.2, 2.9. scientific editing) Cennady Lych - Doctor or Sciences (Economics), lead research specialist of the Institute of Economics of the National Academy of Sciences (chapters 1.1,1.2, national policies during globalisation) Eduard Matulis - Candidate of Sciences (Technology), Advisor/Consultant of the Economic Department of the Presidential Administration (chapters 2.5, 4.2) Antonina Morova - Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Head of the Economic Department of the Presidential Administration (chapter 2.3) Svetlana IMaumova - Candidate of Sciences (Philosophy),Lecturer of the Belarus Institute of Higher Education (chapter 2.4) Victor Pinigin - Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Deputy Director of the institute of Economic research of the Ministry of Economy (chapters 1/i, 1.5. 2.2) Alexander Podluzhny - Doctor of Sciences (Linguistics), Director of Yakub Kolas Institute of Linguistics, Academician/Secretary of the Department of Arts and Humanities of the National Academy of Science (language policies) Ivan Udovenko - Candidate of Sciences (Philosophy), Deputy Director of the Institute of Economic Research of the Ministry of Economy (chapters2.1, 2.5, 3.2) Kseniya Khachatryants - Candidate of Sciences (Architecture), lecturer at Belarus State Polytechnical Academy (housing policy) Calina Shaton - Candidate of Sciences, Vice Rector of the Non-State Women's Institute "Envila" (chapter 2.4) Ludmila Shakhotko - Doctor of Sciences (Sociology), Deputy Director of the Institute of Statistics of the Ministry of Statistics and Analysis (population migration) BOXES: Yuri Vlaskin -Department Manager of the National Bank (I.S.I) Leonid Zaiko - Candidate of Sciences (Economics), President, National Centre for Strategic Research (2.2.1) Ludmila Litvinova - Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Lecturer of Belarus State University of Economics (2.3.4) Yevgeni Shirokov - Correspondent Member of the International Academy of Environment, President of the Belarusian chapter of the International Academy of Environment (2.7.1) Alexander Piskounov - Translator Brian Anderson - Style Editor 4 Table of contents Foreword 3 Authors 4 Introduction 7 Chapter 1. Sustainable human development of Belarus - a five-year record 8 1.1. National Human Development Reports - oveview of approaches 8 1.2. Role of the National Reports in public education and state policies 12 1.3. Human Development Index in dynamics 15 1.4. A socially oriented market economy as the basis of .sustainable human development .........16 1.5. The impact of the global financial crisis on the socio-economic situation in Belarus 18 Chapter 2. Trends and dynamics of the key human development indicators; government policies 22 2.1. Demographic policies 22 Fertility .22 Life expectancy 24 Public heath 24 Migration 25 2.2. Economic policy 27 Ownership reform 28 Development of private enterprise 29 Labour reform 30 The role of the state in the transitional economy 32 2.3. Social policies 35 Popular living standards and quality of life 35 Poverty 35 The impact of the financial crisis on the vulnerable groups of the population 37 Social insurance and pension support 38 Employment policies; job creation and support for the unemployed 40 Social rehabilitation for people who have suffered from the Chernobyl nuclear accident . .41 2.4. Gender policy 41 Women's involvement in politics 44 2.5. Education and science policies 46 Education 46 Science and technology 47 2.6. Ethnic and cultural policies 49 Language policy 52 2.7. Environmental policy 54 Exploitation of natural resources and environmental protection 55 Overcoming the effects of the Chernobyl nuclear disaster 56 Environmental education 57 2.8. Creation of a favourable living environment 59 The living enviroment: definition and problems 59 Entering the world community 59 The number of settlements has not changed significantly. Is this good or bad? 60 Qualitative changes in the living enviroment 61 Roads of the future 62 Housing policy 63 2.9. Building a civil society and fighting crime 64 Combating crime and corruption 67 Chapter 3. International partnership for sustainable development 69 3.1. Belarus and the world 69 3.2. Foreign trade policies in the wake of globalization 70 3.3. Sustainable development initiatives of the Republic of Belarus 73 Chapter 4. Looking into the future 76 4.1. Human development objectives in the new millennium 76 4.2. Transition to a post-industrial society 77 Appendix 80 5 List of boxes, figures and tables Boxes: 1.5.1. The impact of the crisis in Russia on the Belarusian economy 20 2.2.1.