If this information is required in an accessible format, please contact 1-800-372-1102 ext. 3753 Background Report Durham Region TMP Higher-Order Transit Strategy Development Report Prepared for The Regional Municipality of Durham by IBI Group and Parsons January 2018 IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Higher-Order Transit STRATEGY DEVELOPMENT REPORT Prepared for The Regional Municipality of Durham Table of Contents 1 Introduction ............................................................................................... 1 1.1 Objectives ......................................................................................... 1 1.2 Transportation Directions .................................................................. 1 1.3 Transit Network Development Approach .......................................... 3 1.4 Report Structure ............................................................................... 4 2 Current Plans ............................................................................................. 5 2.1 Regional Official Plan ....................................................................... 5 2.2 Long Term Transit Strategy .............................................................. 6 2.3 DRT Five Year Service Strategy ....................................................... 6 2.4 Provincial Initiatives .......................................................................... 7 3 Background ............................................................................................... 9 3.1 Existing Transit Network ................................................................... 9 3.2 Travel Demand Trends ................................................................... 11 3.2.1 Transit Mode Share ......................................................................11 3.2.2 Transit Trip Destinations ...............................................................12 3.2.3 Density and Transit ......................................................................13 3.3 Transit Service Performance .......................................................... 14 3.4 Transit Access to GO Stations ........................................................ 17 3.5 Summary and Implications for Transit Network Development ........ 17 4 Future Transportation Needs and Opportunities ................................. 18 4.1 Population and Employment Growth .............................................. 18 4.2 Transit Travel Demand Growth ....................................................... 19 4.2.1 2031 Travel Demand ....................................................................19 4.3 Changes in Travel Patterns ............................................................ 20 4.4 Role of Transit in Addressing Travel Demand ................................ 22 January 2018 i IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Higher-Order Transit Strategy Development Report Prepared for The Regional Municipality of Durham Table of Contents (continued) 5 Development of the 2031 Transit Network ............................................ 23 5.1 Principles for Transit Network Development ................................... 23 5.1.1 Transit Measures..........................................................................23 5.1.2 Transit Options .............................................................................26 5.1.3 Matching Demand to Service .......................................................29 5.1.4 Thresholds for Rapid Transit ........................................................30 5.2 High Level Network Alternatives ..................................................... 31 5.2.1 Base Network ...............................................................................32 5.2.2 Enhanced Network .......................................................................32 5.3 Comparison of Base and Enhanced Networks ............................... 33 6 Proposed 2031 Transit Network ............................................................. 35 6.1 Assessment Considerations ........................................................... 35 6.2 Transit Corridor Assessments ........................................................ 42 6.2.1 Highway 2 ....................................................................................42 6.2.2 Simcoe Street ...............................................................................48 6.2.3 Taunton Road ..............................................................................54 6.2.4 Whites Road .................................................................................56 6.2.5 Brock Road ..................................................................................57 6.2.6 Westney Road ..............................................................................59 6.2.7 Bayly Street / Victoria Street / Bloor Street ...................................61 6.2.8 Other High Frequency Corridors ...................................................63 6.3 GO Transit ...................................................................................... 67 6.3.1 Lakeshore East Corridor...............................................................68 6.3.2 Seaton GO Rail ............................................................................69 6.3.3 GO Rail Extension to Uxbridge .....................................................71 6.3.4 Future Service on the Havelock Subdivision .................................71 January 2018 ii IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Higher-Order Transit Strategy Development Report Prepared for The Regional Municipality of Durham Table of Contents (continued) 6.3.5 Future Protection for High Speed Rail ..........................................72 7 Transit Needs Beyond 2031 ................................................................... 73 7.1 Population and Employment Forecasts .......................................... 73 7.2 Transportation Demand and Network Implications ......................... 74 7.3 Recommendations Beyond 2031 .................................................... 74 8 Rapid Transit Costs ................................................................................ 75 8.1 Capital Cost .................................................................................... 75 List Of Exhibits Exhibit 1.1: Transportation Directions ................................................................. 2 Exhibit 3.1: Existing Transit Network in Durham Region (2017) ....................... 10 Exhibit 3.2: Mode Share Comparisons for AM Peak Period Trips from Durham, 2001-2011 ..................................................................................... 11 Exhibit 3.3: Transit Mode Share by Municipality for AM Peak Period, 2001- 2011 .............................................................................................. 11 Exhibit 3.4: Transit Trips Starting in Durham – AM Peak Period ...................... 12 Exhibit 3.5: Comparison of Urban Densities and Transit Mode Shares in Urban Growth Centres in 2001 ................................................................. 13 Exhibit 3.6: Density and Transit Mode Share – AM Peak Period ...................... 14 Exhibit 3.7: DRT Historical Ridership (millions) ................................................ 15 Exhibit 3.8: Monthly Bus Boardings in Durham Region (2015) ......................... 16 Exhibit 3.9: Access Mode to GO Rail ................................................................ 17 Exhibit 4.1: Development Growth by Municipality (Model Forecasts) ................ 19 January 2018 iii IBI GROUP Background Report Durham Region TMP Higher-Order Transit Strategy Development Report Prepared for The Regional Municipality of Durham Table of Contents (continued) Exhibit 4.2: Peak Period Growth in Transit Demand ......................................... 20 Exhibit 4.3: Transit Trips Starting in Durham Region by Destination – AM Peak Period ............................................................................................ 21 Exhibit 4.4: Transit Share by Trip Destination – AM Peak Period ..................... 21 Exhibit 5.1: Characteristics of On-Street, Fully Segregated and Grade Separated Transit Options ............................................................. 28 Exhibit 5.2: Carrying Capacity .......................................................................... 31 Exhibit 5.3: 2031 Base Network Assumptions .................................................. 32 Exhibit 5.4: Enhanced Network Assumptions ................................................... 33 Exhibit 5.5: High-level Summary of Model Results – AM Peak Period ............. 34 Exhibit 5.6: High-level Summary of Model Results – PM Peak Period ............. 34 Exhibit 6.1: Regional Transit Network Types .................................................... 36 Exhibit 6.2: Specific Designation for Key Regional Transit Corridors ............... 38 Exhibit 6.3: Recommended Higher-Order Transit Network ............................... 40 Exhibit 6.4: Recommended Higher-Order Transit Network (South Enlargement) ................................................................................. 41 Exhibit 6.5: Highway 2 Corridor Features ......................................................... 44 Exhibit 6.6: Potential Highway 2 Corridor Cross-sections to 2031 .................... 45 Exhibit 6.7: Proposed Highway 2 Corridor Cross-sections beyond 2031 .......... 47 Exhibit 6.8: Simcoe Street Corridor Features ..................................................