Israel Intelligence Heritage and Commemoration Center The Intelligence Heritage Research Institute Intelligence Analysis Understanding Reality in an Era of Dramatic Changes Itai Brun Intelligence Analysis Understanding Reality in an Era of Dramatic Changes Itai Brun 1 2 Israel Intelligence Heritage and Commemoration Center The Intelligence Heritage Research Institute Intelligence Analysis Understanding Reality in an Era of Dramatic Changes Itai Brun 3 Intelligence Analysis Understanding Reality in an Era of Dramatic Changes Itai Brun Editor: Effi Meltzer Translation:IDI/I2CU Graphic design: Rafi Eyal Cover design: Rafi Eyal Printing: Moshe Asayag Ltd. First edition 2018 © All rights reserved to the author and to the Israel Intelligence Heritage and Commemoration Center. It is prohibited to copy or distribute this book or portions thereof in any form electronic or mechanical means including photocopying and recording, and forbidden to use any trademark without the prior written approval. Effi Meltzer publishing Ltd. research & publishing 4 Table of Contents Foreword ................................................................................ 7 Introduction ............................................................................ 11 Back to the Yom Kippur War: The Need for "Balanced Intelligence" ........................................................................... 25 A Different Middle East: The "Regional Upheaval" ............... 39 The Institution for Understanding Reality: The Nature of Intelligence Analysis .............................................................. 57 From the Prime Minister to the Combatants: The Levels of Intelligence and Areas of Analysis .......................................... 81 Understanding the Present and Thinking About the Future: Intelligence Methodology ....................................................... 97 From Clausewitz to Intelligence Based Warfare: Intelligence Analysis for Combat ............................................................... 139 The Fruits of Technology: Intelligence Analysis and the Information Revolution .......................................................... 163 Summary ................................................................................ 187 Annex: On surprise and the literature of surprise ..................... 191 Bibliography ........................................................................... 215 5 "The Intelligence is an institution for clarifying reality beyond the enemy lines. This is a reality that is difficult to reach and analyze" Yitshak ben Yisrael "The job, after all, is not so much to predict the future as to help policy makers think about the future. No one can know the future, and it is misleading to pretend to" Joseph Nye "Anybody dealing with intelligence is walking through a minefield, in which hitches can occur at every step of the way, from directions that cannot be foreseen" Yehoshafat Harkabi 6 Intelligence Analysis Foreword Since its inception, the aim of intelligence analysis has been to provide a reliable description of reality and to generate knowledge about the enemy and the environment, which is required for the decision-making process. This is a process through which information becomes knowledge and knowledge is translated into awareness of the decisionmakers. At a time when the very nature of truth and the existence of facts are increasingly challenged, this is an especially important undertaking. Excellence in the depiction of reality is also a necessary condition for the intelligence's second role, namely to wield influence. In recent years, we have witnessed a process of maturing amid both analysis and assessment bodies, as well as among the consumers of intelligence. No one expects intelligence analysis to deal in prophesy, but rather to be able to narrow down areas of uncertainty and to conduct a knowledge-based dialogue with the decisionmakers in order to assist in a judicious decision-making process and in reducing the element of surprise. In this age of rapid change, diffusion of power and information explosion, as the weight of individuals and publics increases while the strength of national and international institutions declines, as norms change and global orders collapse – the intel community faces growing challenges in depicting and explaining reality as well as suggesting possible future developments. The range of intelligence objectives is constantly expanding, and intelligence services are required to contend with rapid unexpected dynamics rather than 7 Israel Intelligence Heritage and Commemoration Center with systematic interaction between hierarchical entities. They are particularly required to point to any escalation in the making, even in situations whereby the adversaries themselves clearly have no interest in it. The Intelligence community is at the front line of reality. It is the first to tackle the challenges of rapid change and information explosion, but it also benefits from the opportunities embodied in technological development. The tsunami of information and technological progress does not make the analyst's job redundant, but it does alter it. In an era of Big Data and enormous processing power, asking the right questions has become the most important skill of the Intelligence officer. Another concern of the intelligence work is the fusion and integration of the collection and analysis, and the need to develop this process from a linear to a networked one. The current challenges compel us to strengthen the links and interfaces between the collection and analysis bodies, often to the point of merging them. However, this mission-oriented integration should not blur the lines between the unique professional identities of the collection and the analysis units. Having known him for many years, both as a commander and an intelligence officer, Itai's skill at describing and explaining complex reality has always stood out. In his book, he provides up- to-date insight into the methodology and philosophy of intelligence analysis, an area hardly broached let alone written about. Brun presents his own experience and the best practices of the entire Israeli intelligence community, and he does so, as always, in a clear 8 Intelligence Analysis and concise manner. I am convinced that this book will be both captivating and helpful to all those engaged in the pursuit of information and knowledge, and particularly to anyone navigating through "the minefield of intelligence assessment". Major General Herzi Halevi Chief of Defense Intelligence 9 Israel Intelligence Heritage and Commemoration Center 10 Intelligence Analysis Introduction Over the last several years, intelligence analysis of the Middle East has been challenged by a complex and rapidly changing environment, which in the opinion of many, can only be defined as unprecedented. This environment has been shaped by several interrelated clusters of changes that have unfolded simultaneously: the fundamental developments in the international arena; the changes in regional system, most of them resulting from the upheaval afflicting the Middle East since 2011; the changes in warfare over the last several decades; and the Information Revolution, which in many ways defines our era, while undermining organizational and conceptual structures and boundaries. These changes created a strategic and operational environment that is characterized mainly by uncertainty, instability, and volatility. These have always been common adjectives applied to the Middle East, but it seems that their current level far surpasses what has been witnessed in the past. This book deals with intelligence analysis and its methodology for coping with this challenging environment. It is based, first and foremost, on the experience I gained over the years 2011-2015, during which I held the position of Head of the Research and Analysis Division (RAD), in the Israel Defense Intelligence (IDI, known in Hebrew as AMAN). After dealing for many years, with both intelligence theory and practice, I was given a magnificent opportunity to hold this position that can easily be described as one of the most fascinating in the world of intelligence. The sub-title of this book is Understanding Reality in an Era of 11 Israel Intelligence Heritage and Commemoration Center Dramatic Changes. At its foundation lies an approach calling for responsible practice in the effort to clarify reality and understand it. Why responsible practice? Because intelligence analysis has found itself, from many perspectives, in a conceptual crisis. The ideas for improvement that were proposed after colossal intelligence failures during World War II (e.g. Pearl Harbor, Barbarossa) and of the Yom Kippur War, were partially implemented, but failed to prevent painful failures over the past decades. New ideas were examined, but those too were unable to provide a crystal ball that would put an end to the uncertainty characterizing the enemy and the environment. This state of affairs should not be surprising: uncertainty is indeed inherent in reality. Therefore, intelligence analysis will continue to be at the forefront of the endeavor to deal with this complex reality, while realizing that errors are inevitable. Responsible practice is therefore intended to face complexities of reality in a way that will reduce, but not eliminate, the possibilities of erroneous understanding of the present and flawed thinking about the future. This mode of responsible practice is increasingly required in an era of