Nuclear Pakistan Seeking Security & Stability 1 NUCLEAR PAKISTAN SEEKING SECURITY & STABILITY (CISS Security Series) Edited by Naeem Salik Acknowledgements This study is the outcome of invaluable contributions by the authors. It would also be appropriate to recognize the significant inputs starting with the conception of the project to review and editing of the manuscript by Colonel I. D. Hassan, the research coordinator at CISS. I would also like to mention the contributions made by Ms Maryam Zubair and Mr Sarmad Zia, research fellows at CISS by way of reading through various versions of the manuscript and assisting in editing and corrections. ISBN 978-969-7813-00-1 Published by University of Lahore, Defence Road, Lahore Ph: (042) 32300865 Email: [email protected] Nuclear Pakistan Seeking Security & Stability (CISS Security Series) Edited by Naeem Salik Copyright © 2018, Center for International Strategic Studies, Islamabad All rights reserved No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means (electronic or otherwise), without the prior written permission of the Center for International Strategic Studies, Islamabad (CISS) Cover Design & Layout Ahmad Ibraheem Sahil CONTENTS Foreword vii List of Acronyms ix Introduction xv 1. Pakistan’s Mastery of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle: 01 Defying Technological Impediments Mansoor Ahmed 2. Pakistan’s Evolving Nuclear Doctrine 49 Naeem Salik 3. Pakistan’s Nuclear Legislative Regime 67 Ahmar Bilal Sufi 4. Pakistan’s Nuclear Command and Control 93 Adil Sultan 5. The Safety and Security Challenges and 121 Response Naeem Salik 6. Pakistan and the Non-Proliferation Regime 143 Sannia Abdullah 7. Pakistan and the IAEA 167 Ali Sarwar Naqvi & Saima Aman Sial 8. Pakistan’s Prospective Force Posture in 2025 195 Naeem Salik 9. Contemporary Nuclear Debates 223 Zafar Nawaz Jaspal Conclusions and Analysis 251 Naeem Salik Authors’ Biographies 257 Index 267 FOREWORD Pakistan’s nuclear program has been mired in controversies since its very inception. When Pakistan decided to pursue a military nuclear capability as an insurance against future threats to its security and integrity in the aftermath of the 1971 debacle, the Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) had already entered into force in 1970. Fortunately, Pakistan had kept its options open by not acceding to the NPT in view of India’s refusal to do so, and its pursuit of a nuclear weapons program was, therefore, not in violation of any international law or treaty obligations. However, its effort was seen to be in contravention to the fledgling international norms against further proliferation of nuclear weapons. Its plans to systematically build up its nuclear fuel cycle facilities were upended by India’s first nuclear test in May 1974 that triggered the introduction of increasingly stringent controls over exports of sensitive materials and technologies especially to countries suspected of pursuing military nuclear programs. Pakistan’s subsequent efforts to circumvent these restrictions and adopt unconventional means to acquire necessary materials and technology against the wishes of world powers created an image of illegitimacy that has refused to fade away. The revelations in 2004 of the activities of the AQ Khan network have further reinforced the negative view of Pakistan’s nuclear enterprise. Pakistan’s intellectual response to hostile propaganda about its nuclear program has been rather weak and disjointed. It has only been in recent years that a few publications that project the Pakistani perspectives on the subject have appeared. However, while these publications provide adequate historical overview vii of the program the contemporary issues and developments have not been adequately covered while some issues though directly associated with the nuclear program have not been addressed at all. Recognizing these deficiencies in the Pakistani nuclear narrative, the Center for International Strategic Studies (CISS), Islamabad, whose main area of interest is nuclear policy, has taken up the challenge to fill this void by coordinating the publication of an edited volume entitled “Nuclear Pakistan – Searching for Security and Stability.” Ambassador Ali Sarwar Naqvi Executive Director, CISS Islamabad, June 2017 viii LIST OF ACRONYMS ADU Ammonium Di-Uranate AEARC Atomic Energy Agricultural Research Centre AEC Atomic Energy Council AEMC Atomic Energy Minerals Centre AEMC Atomic Energy Medical Centre AP Additional Protocol AQCS Analytical Quality Control Services BC-1 Baghalcur BMR Balancing Modernization and Rehabilitation BoG Board of Governors BSS Basic Safety Standards C/S Containment and Surveillance C2 Command and Control CANDU Canada Deuterium Uranium CAS Chief of Air Staff CD Conference on Disarmament CERN European Organization of Nuclear Research CISS Center for International Strategic Studies CJCSC Chairman Joint Chief Of Staff Committee CMD Credible Minimum Deterrence CNS Chief of Naval Staff COAS Chief of Army Staff CoE Centre of Excellence ix List of Acronyms CPC Chemical Production Complex CPPNM Convention on Physical Protection of Nuclear Material CRP Coordinated Research Project CSD Cold Start Doctrine CSS Committee on Safety Standards CTBT Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty 1996 CWC Chemical Weapons Convention D&S Disarmament and Safeguards DCC Development Control Committee DG Khan Dera Ghazi Khan DIQ Design Information Questionnaire DPRK Democratic People’s Republic of Korea DRDO Defense Research and Development Organization ECC Employment Control Committee ECNEC Executive Committee of National Economic Council EIF Entry-into-Force FAS Federation of American Scientists FMCT Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty GC General Conference GFMR Global Fissile Material Report GICNT Global Initiative to Combat Nuclear Terrorism HEU Highly Enriched Uranium IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles ICJ International Court of Justice x Nuclear Pakistan Seeking Security & Stability ICSANT International Convention on Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism INES International Nuclear Event Scale IPFM International Panel on Fissile Materials IRRS Integrated Regulatory Review Services IRRT International Regulatory Review Team IRS International Reporting System ISI Inter-Services Intelligence ISIS Institute of Science and International Security ISR Intelligence Surveillance Reconnaissance KANUPP Karachi Nuclear Power Plant KINPOE Karachi Institute of Power Engineering KNFC Kundian Nuclear Fuel Complex KRL Khan Research Laboratories LEU Low Enriched Uranium MESA Middle East and South Asia MIRVs Multiple Independently Targetable Re-Entry Vehicles MPC&A Material Protection Control and Accounting MT Management NA Nuclear Science & Applications NAA Neutron Activation Analysis NCA National Command Authority NCNDT National Centre for Non-destructive testing NDT Non-Destructive Testing Services NESCOM National Engineering and Scientific Commission xi List of Acronyms NFU No First Use NIAB Nuclear Institute for Agriculture and Biology NIBGE National Institute for Biotechnology and Genetic Engineering NISAS National Institute of Safety and Security NNWS Non-Nuclear Weapons State NPPs Nuclear power plants NPT Non-proliferation Treaty NRECC Nuclear and Radiological Emergency Coordination Center NS Nuclear Safety & Security NSA National Security Advisor NSAB National Security Advisory Board NSAP National Nuclear Security Action Plan NSG Nuclear Suppliers Group NSS Nuclear Security Summit NTI Nuclear Threat Initiative NE Nuclear Energy NUPG Nuclear Power Generation NUPP Nuclear Power Projects NURESC Nuclear and Radiological Emergency Support Centre NUSSC Nuclear Safety Standards Committee NWS Nuclear Weapon States OSART Operational Safety Review Team PAEC Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission xii Nuclear Pakistan Seeking Security & Stability PAROS Prevention of Arms Race in Space PCENS Pakistan Centre of Excellence on Nuclear Security PHWR Pressurized Heavy Water Reactor PIEAS Pakistan Institute of Engineering and Applied Sciences PINSTECH Pakistan Institute of Nuclear Science and Technology PM Prime Minister PNRA Pakistan Nuclear Regulatory Authority PRP Personnel Reliability Program PSA Probabilistic Safety Analysis PSI Proliferation Security Initiative RASSC Radiation Safety Standards Committee RCA Regional Cooperation Agreement Project RCF Regulatory Cooperation Forum RMI Republic of Marshall Islands SECDIV Strategic Export Control Division SES Scientific and Engineering Services SFCs Strategic Force Commands SG Safeguards SIPRI Stockholm International Peace Research Institute SLBMs Submarine Launched Ballistic Missiles SPD Strategic Plans Division START Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty SUPARCO Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission TC Technical Cooperation TCP Technical Cooperation Program xiii List of Acronyms TNWs Tactical Nuclear Weapons TRANSSC Transport Safety Standards Committee TUP Technical Up-gradation Project U02 Uranium dioxide UF4 Uranium Tetra Fluoride UF6 Uranium Hexafluoride UN United Nations UNAEC United Nations Atomic Energy Commission UNGA United Nations General Assembly UNSC United Nations Security Council UNSCEAR United Nations Scientific Committee on Effects of Atomic Radiations WASSC Waste Safety Standards Committee xiv INTRODUCTION Pakistan’s journey to attain the status of a nuclear weapons capable state has been long and arduous and its nuclear program has been facing hostile propaganda, diplomatic and political pressures, economic and military