THE IMPACT OF UNITED STATES ECONOMIC SANCTIONS TO THE VOTING BEHAVIOR OF IRANIAN PEOPLE IN IRAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION (2010-2013) By AZHAR FUADI ID no. 016201100089 A thesis presented to the Faculty of Humanities President University In partial fulfillment of requirement for Bachelor Degree in International Relations Major in diplomacy Studies 2015 THESIS ADVISER RECOMMENDATION LETTER This thesis entitled “The Impact of United States Economic Sanctions to The Voting Behavior of Iranian People in Iran Presidential Election (2010-2013)” prepared and submitted by Azhar Fuadi in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Bachelor of Arts in International Relations in the Faculty of Humanities has been reviewed and found to have satisfied the requirements for a thesis fit to be examined. I therefore recommend this thesis for Oral Defense. Cikarang, Indonesia, 15 January 2015 Thesis Adviser Dr. H. Munawar Fuad Noeh, MA DECLARATION OF ORIGINALITY I declare that this thesis, entitled “The Impact of United States Economic Sanctions to The Voting Behavior of Iranian people in Iran Presidential Election (2010-2013)” is, to the best of my knowledge and belief, an original piece of work that has not been submitted, either in whole or in part, to another university to obtain a degree. Cikarang, Indonesia, 15 January 2015 Azhar Fuadi PANEL OF EXAMINER APPROVAL SHEET The Panel of Examiners declare that the thesis entitled “The Impact of United States Economic Sanctions to The Voting Behavior of Iranian people in Iran Presidential Election (2010-2013)” that was submitted by Azhar Fuadi majoring in International relations from the Faculty of Humanities was assessed and approved to have passed the Oral Examinations on 25 February 2015. Hendra Manurung, SIP., MA. Chair-Panel of Examiner Prof. Anak Agung Banyu Perwita, Ph.D. Examiner Witri elvianti, MA. Thesis Advisor ABSTRACT Title: The Impact of United States Economic Sanctions to The Voting Behavior of Iranian people in Iran Presidential Election (2010-2013) Among the discussion about the efficiency of economic sanctions as a foreign policy, this thesis will try to give political analysis on the usability of economic sanctions to achieve expected goals. By the purpose of analyzing the relevance of economic sanctions with a political leadership transition in the receiver country, this thesis could give an understanding on how we see the concept of economic sanctions implementation on a country could give impacts not only to economical aspect, but also to the political aspect. Are economic sanctions a viable strategy in this globalizations era especially in regards to influencing domestic political aspect of the target country? The author uses study case of Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act of 2010 (CISADA) imposition on Iran (2010-2013). This thesis will analyze the impacts of the economic sanctions as independent variable into the Iran presidential election in 2013 as the dependent variable. The results show that the surprising victory of Hassan Rouhani was the impacts of CISADA 2010 toward Iran Presidential Elections 201. The author believes that the CISADA could affect the outcome of Iranian presidential election 2013 by casting great audience cost to Iranian people which then could influence the Iranian constituents to behave as expectation of United States. Key Word: Economic Sanctions, CISADA, Bilateral Relations, Iran Presidential Election 2013, Audience Cost, Voting Behavior. i ABSTRACT Title: The Impact of United States Economic Sanctions to The Voting Behavior of Iranian people in Iran Presidential Election (2010-2013) Di tengah-tengah panasnya diskusi mengenai keefektifan sanksi ekonomi sebagai alat kebijakan luar negeri, skripsi ini akan mencoba untuk menyuguhkan pandangan berbeda terhadap konsep keefektifitasan sanksi ekonomi sebagai alat kebijkan luar negeri. Skripsi ini mencoba untuk menganalisa hubungan antara sanksi ekonomi dengan transisi kepimpinan politik di negara penerima sanksi. Skripsi ini memberikan pandangan berbeda bahwasanya sanksi ekonomi tidak hanya semata dapat mempengaruhi keadaan ekonomi suatu Negara, namun juga berdampak kepada politik dalam negeri. Apakah sanksi ekonomi adalah kebijakan yang tepat terlebih dalam fungsinya untuk mempengaruhi keadaan politik dalam negeri dari Negara penerima sanksi? Dalam rangka untuk mencari jawaban tersebut, penulis menggunakan kasus dari implementasi Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act of 2010 (CISADA) terhadap Iran (2010-2013). Skripsi ini akan menganalisa pengaruh dari sanksi ekonomi sebagai variabel independen terhadap pemilihan presiden di Iran tahun 2013 sebagai variable dependen. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa sanksi ekonomoi dari Amerika Serikat melalui pelaksanaan CISADA telah memainkan peran yang penting di dalam terpilihnya Hassan Rouhani. Penulis percaya bahwa CISADA dapat mempengaruhi hasil akhir dari pemilihan presiden di Iran dengan mengakibatkan audience cost terhadap masyarakat Iran sehingga dapat mempengaruhi mereka untuk memilih calon yang diharapkan oleh pihak Amerika Serikat. Key Word: Sanksi ekonomi, CISADA, Hubungan Bilateral, Pemilihan Presiden Iran 2013, Audience Cost, Voting Behavior. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT In the name of Allah, The Merciful, The Compassionate All thanks and praises be to Allah, the Lord of the worlds, the Almighty, on whom ultimately this thesis would not be done without Allah‘s permission and power. May blessings and peace be upon Prophet Muhammad, his family and companions. I would never have been able to finish my thesis without the guidance of my supervisors, lecturers, family, and friends. Therefore I would like to express my deepest gratitude to both of my advisors, Mr. Munawar Fuad and Ms. Witri Elvianti, for their excellent guidance, caring, patiently corrected my writing, and providing me with handful of suggestions. I would also like to thank the fabulous lecturers of International Relations president University, Mr. Eric Hendra. Mr. Agung Banyu Perwita, and Mr. Teuku Rezasyah which whom also have given me so much suggestions, and humbly provided great assistance not only to me, but also to all the IR students. I also wish to thank wish my most awesome companions during this thesis writing, Mahfudz, Rajiv Ambara, Aris Munandar, Nuraya Widhantisa, Dina Herliana, who were always supporting and encouraging me through day and night. Not to mention, biggest gratitude to all of my dearest friends of International relations 2011, Zahirul Ma‘ala who have always inspired me all along during the process. Special thanks, tribute and appreciation to all those their names do not appear here who have contributed to the successful completion of this study. Finally, I am forever indebted to my parents and sisters. They were always supporting me and encouraging me with their best wishes. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................. i ACKNOWLEDGEMENT .......................................................................................... iii TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................ iv LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES .......................................................................... vii LIST OF ACRONYMS ............................................................................................ viii CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION ................................................................................... 1 1.1 Background ................................................................................................... 1 1.2 Problem Identification ................................................................................... 5 1.3 Statement of the Problem: ............................................................................. 6 1.4 Research Objectives: ..................................................................................... 7 1.5 Research Methodology .................................................................................. 7 1.5.1 Case Study .............................................................................................. 8 1.5.2 Research Framework .............................................................................. 8 1.5.3 Research Time and Place ........................................................................ 9 1.5.4 Data Collection ....................................................................................... 9 1.6 Significance of Study: ................................................................................. 10 1.7 Theoretical Framework ............................................................................... 11 1.7.1 Domestic Audience Cost ...................................................................... 11 1.7.2 The Public Choice Approach ................................................................ 13 1.7.3 Hegemonic Stability Theory ................................................................. 15 1.8 Scope and Limitation of Study: ................................................................... 15 1.9 Definition of Terms ..................................................................................... 16 iv 1.9.1 Economic Sanctions.............................................................................. 16 1.9.2 Voting Behavior.................................................................................... 17 1.10