Regional Aviation Baseline Study Final Report May 2021 Regional Aviation Baseline Study Final Report May 2021 Prepared for Prepared by In association with The Regional Aviation Baseline study is funded by a grant from the Federal Aviation Administration. Additional funding for this document Additional copies of this document provided in part by PSRC member jurisdictions, grants from U.S. may be obtained by contacting: Department of Transportation, Federal Transit Administration, Federal Highway Administration, and Washington State Department of Puget Sound Regional Council Transportation. Information Center 1011 Western Avenue, Suite 500 American with Disabilities Act (ADA) Information Seattle, Washington 98104-1035 Individuals requiring reasonable accommodations may request written 206.464.7532 materials in alternate formats, sign language interpreters, physical accessibility accommodations, or other reasonable accommodations by [email protected] contacting the ADA Coordinator, Thu Le, at 206.464.6175, with two weeks’ www.psrc.org advance notice. Persons who are deaf or hard of hearing may contact the ADA Coordinator, Thu Le, through TTY Relay 711. Title VI Notice: PSRC fully complies with Title VI of the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and related statutes and regulations in all programs and activities. For more information, or to obtain a Title VI Complaint Form, visit https://www.psrc.org/title-vi. Regional Aviation Baseline Study | Final Report May 2021 Regional Aviation Baseline Study Final Report Contents 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 STUDY BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE ............................................................................................................ 1 1.2 COMMERCIAL AVIATION COORDINATING COMMISSION ............................................................................ 2 1.3 COVID-19 IMPACTS ON AVIATION ................................................................................................................. 2 1.4 ORGANIZATION OF REPORT ........................................................................................................................... 3 2. Study Overview ............................................................................................................... 4 2.1 GOALS AND OBJECTIVES ................................................................................................................................ 4 2.2 STUDY ORGANIZATION ................................................................................................................................... 5 2.3 STUDY AREA AND AIRPORTS .......................................................................................................................... 6 2.4 STUDY SCOPE .................................................................................................................................................. 8 2.5 STUDY PHASES .............................................................................................................................................. 10 2.6 LIMITATIONS ................................................................................................................................................. 10 3. Existing Conditions and Aviation Demand Forecast ........................................................ 11 3.1 OVERVIEW OF REGIONAL AVIATION SYSTEM ............................................................................................. 11 3.2 TRENDS AND FORECASTS BY AVIATION SECTOR ........................................................................................ 14 3.3 KEY MULTIMODAL CONNECTIONS AND ACCESS ........................................................................................ 16 4. Airport Needs ................................................................................................................ 18 4.1 BENCHMARK EVALUATION OF PERFORMANCE BY AVIATION SECTOR ..................................................... 18 4.2 CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES............................................................................................................. 21 4.1 COMMERCIAL SERVICE ................................................................................................................................. 21 4.2 AIR CARGO .................................................................................................................................................... 25 4.3 GENERAL AVIATION ...................................................................................................................................... 30 5. Assessment of System Requirements ............................................................................. 33 5.1 COMMERCIAL SERVICE ................................................................................................................................. 33 5.2 AIR CARGO .................................................................................................................................................... 34 5.3 GENERAL AVIATION ...................................................................................................................................... 36 5.4 SUMMARY OF INTERMODAL NEEDS AND OPPORTUNITIES ....................................................................... 37 6. Development of Scenarios ............................................................................................. 39 6.1 SCENARIO 1: BASELINE MEET 50% TO 60% OF 2050 DEMAND ................................................................. 42 6.2 SCENARIO 2: MEET 80% OF 2050 DEMAND................................................................................................ 43 6.3 SCENARIO 3: ACCOMODATE 100% OF 2050 DEMAND .............................................................................. 44 6.4 BENEFITS AND CHALLENGES OF MEETING DEMAND ................................................................................. 45 6.5 AIRPORT DEVELOPMENT PROCESS .............................................................................................................. 47 7. Evaluation of Airports for Scenarios ............................................................................... 49 7.1 EVALUATION CRITERIA ................................................................................................................................. 49 7.2 FURTHER ANALYSIS OF REMAINING AIRPORTS .......................................................................................... 52 7.3 EVALUATION CONCLUSION .......................................................................................................................... 71 8. Public Engagement ........................................................................................................ 72 8.1 PSRC EXECUTIVE BOARD .............................................................................................................................. 72 8.2 WEBSITE ........................................................................................................................................................ 72 8.3 EMAIL UPDATES ............................................................................................................................................ 73 8.4 SURVEY .......................................................................................................................................................... 73 8.5 IN-DEPTH INTERVIEWS ................................................................................................................................. 76 8.6 REGIONAL PUBLIC MEETINGS ...................................................................................................................... 76 FINAL i Regional Aviation Baseline Study Final Report 8.7 ONLINE OPEN HOUSE ................................................................................................................................... 77 8.8 STAKEHOLDER BRIEFINGS ............................................................................................................................ 77 8.9 KEY FINDINGS ................................................................................................................................................ 78 9. Related Studies .............................................................................................................. 79 9.1 MOBILE OBSERVATIONS OF ULTRAFINE PARTICLES STUDY ....................................................................... 79 9.2 AVIATION ECONOMIC IMPACT STUDY ........................................................................................................ 80 9.3 AVIATION BIOFUELS INFRASTRUCTURE FEASIBILITY STUDY ...................................................................... 80 9.4 WASHINGTON STATE AIR CARGO MOVEMENT STUDY .............................................................................. 81 9.5 ULTRA-HIGH-SPEED GROUND TRANSPORTATION ...................................................................................... 82 10. Conclusions and Next Steps ........................................................................................... 84 ii FINAL Regional Aviation Baseline Study Final Report Tables Table 2-1. Regional Aviation Baseline Study Goal Areas and Objectives .................................................................... 4 Table 2-2. Airports in the Study Area ..........................................................................................................................