A Cicero Group analysis Brexit Negotiations - The View From the EU OCTOBER 2016 Foreword UK Prime Minister Theresa May has confirmed that Article 50 will Each Member State has a unique mixture of political, economic be triggered no later than March 2017. Once Article 50 is triggered, and social variables which exert domestic political pressure on the UK will enter into a complex and difficult negotiation in which its leaders and will inform its government’s negotiation position. the UK’s objectives are pitted against those of 27 Member States and the European institutions. In an effort to distil these varying positions, we have identified in our report a set of key variables in selected Member States. The structure of the EU’s negotiating team has become clearer These include the UK-Member State trade ties, the relative since June’s referendum. The Commission’s Chief Negotiator population sizes of UK and EU27 citizens resident within each Michel Barnier will lead the EU’s negotiations, drawing other’s territory, upcoming elections, the relative level of populist substantially on all Directorates-General for technical expertise or Eurosceptic support within the electorate and the presence and support. The political steer of Barnier’s negotiation position of a secessionist region that would seek to capitalise on Brexit must be provided by the Council. It will therefore be the task negotiations. of the Council’s Didier Seeuws to corral 27 Member States into a single position to provide the EU’s mandate. We set this out When collating these variables, we can identify Member States in the graphic on Page 4. Meanwhile, the Parliament will use that will pose an inherent challenge to a smooth negotiation for the threat of its veto to ensure its Brexit Representative, Guy domestic political reasons, their attachment to their citizens’ Verhofstadt, and his team are directly plugged into negotiations rights to reside in the UK or their limited economic ties with the from the start. UK. Key amongst these being France and the Visegrad Group of Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia – albeit for Reaching a consensus among Member States will be no small different reasons. feat for Seeuws. There is a misconception that Member States will inevitably refrain from imposing tough sanctions on the UK On the opposite end of the spectrum, the UK can look to Ireland through fear of harming their own economies. Similarly, there is and Denmark as Member States likely to provide the least a view that Germany’s economic ties with the UK will ultimately challenge to its negotiation position. That said, while there are see them persuade other Member States to adopt a more differences between the positions of these Member States, the accommodating position. size of these differences pale in comparison to the gulf between their collective positions and the UK’s. The reality is far more complicated and points towards a much more difficult negotiation than many in the UK acknowledge. The picture that emerges is that like the UK, other Member 2 11 October 2016 States’ negotiating position will be informed by their own Helena Walsh Alexander domestic considerations and interests. This means that they Executive Director Kneepkens may not always take economically rational decisions to prioritise Brussels Senior Account economic interests over political. Manager Finally, all Member States agree that the cost of a deal that makes leaving the EU look like a viable alternative to membership far outweighs the cost of new trade barriers. This simple calculation James Hughes Sebastian is likely to be the guiding principle of their negotiation. Account Director Damberg-Ott Account Manager We hope you find our report useful. George Winkler Account Executive 3 11 October 2016 Negotiating the UK’s withdrawal under Article 50 EUROPEAN COUNCIL EUROPEAN COMMISSION EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT POLITICAL OVERSIGHT TECHNICAL DETAIL FINAL APPROVAL All Member States Commission Parliamentary Plenary Member States feed into Directorate-Generals The Parliament must approve the Council through Barnier’s A50 Task Force will the final agreement by a Permanent draw directly on all DGs for simple majority of those Representations and technical support MEPs present during the vote Council configurations Commission Committee Council Secretariat Article 50 Task Force Verhofstadt will draft a General Coordinating Commission’s resolution, which will fall Council decides strategic, operational, legal under an as-yet determined negotiation mandate and and financial issues related to Parliamentary Committee – approves agreement by negotiations this may be a special Brexit QMV Committee, or pre-existing such as AFCO, INTA or AFET Council Task Force of Brexit Monitoring Group Head of the European the UK Brexit EU Chief As with the Parliament’s role Council Brexit Parliament Brexit Provides Barnier and his Negotiator in TTIP negotiations, a team the EU’s negotiation Task Force Representative Monitoring Group will likely Michel Barnier mandate and political Didier Seeuws Guy Verhofstadt be established to feed into steer negotiations UK Chief Negotiator 4 11 October 2016 Trade between Member States and the UK UK EXPORTS EU COUNTRY UK IMPORTS Austria €2.94bn Balance: €-2.24bn €5.18bn €19.50bn Belgium €30.18bn Balance: €-10.67bn €7.54bn Denmark €7.26bn Balance: €0.28bn €38.25bn France €46.31bn Balance: €-8.06bn €54.12bn Germany €88.22bn Balance: €-34.09bn €34.82bn Ireland €21.37bn Balance: €13.44bn €20.36bn Italy €27.04bn Balance: €-6.67bn Netherlands €42.64bn €45.08bn Balance: €-2.43bn €18.22bn Spain €32.60bn Balance: €-14.38bn † €13.45bn Visegrad Group €24.68bn Balance: €-11.23bn † Visegrad Group = Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia Source: The Pink Book, 2014 United Kingdom Balance of Payments, Office for National Statistics of the United Kingdom 5 11 October 2016 Migration between Member States and the UK UK CITIZENS IN THE MEMBER STATE CITIZENS IN THE UK 11,000 Austria 18,000 27,000 Belgium 17,000 19,000 Denmark 26,000 185,000 France 160,000 103,000 Germany 131,000 255,000 Ireland 331,000 65,000 Italy 170,000 50,000 Netherlands 82,000 309,000 Spain 131,000 † 52,000 Visegrad Group 1,054,000 † Visegrad Group = Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia Key Source: 2014 Population by Country of Birth and Nationality Report, Office for National Statistics of the United Kingdom = 20,000 people 6 11 October 2016 Challenging negotiations ahead Heatmap of Member States’ domestic political factors impacting Brexit negotiations France Visegrad Austria Germany Spain Italy Netherlands Belgium Ireland Denmark Group † Key † Visegrad Group = Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia The electoral context Key electoral events Article 50 Trigger French Presidential Election Deadline First Round 2016 2017 End of March April Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Italian Referendum Dutch Parliamentary Election French Presidential Election German Parliamentary Elections 4 December 15 March Run-off September May Austrian Presidential Rerun 4 December Spanish Parliamentary Elections TBC December 7 11 October 2016 AUSTRIA Key People Trade with UK Norbert Hofer, Freedom Party (FPÖ) Presidential candidate UK exports Balance UK imports Alexander Van der Bellen, Green Party Presidential candidate €2.94bn €-2.24bn €5.18bn Upcoming elections UK-Austria migration Presidential election re-run on 4 December 2016, following ruling finding Van der Bellen’s narrow UK CITIZENS IN AUSTRIA AUSTRIANS IN THE UK win in May 2016 to be unconstitutional. Despite the role being largely symbolic in Austrian politics, 11,000 18,000 the outcome of the vote is a thermometer of populist and Eurosceptic leanings in Austria, following Hofer’s call for an Austrian referendum on EU membership. Risk of Populism/Eurospecticism? Secessionist region? Yes – Far-right Freedom Party No Analysis At the heart of the migrant route to northern European Member States, Austria has been at the forefront of the EU’s migrant crisis and subsequent populist swing in support for anti-migration politicians. In the event of a Hofer win, we can expect the mood in Austria to be more sympathetic to the UK’s migration demands. Under Van der Bellen, we can expect Austria to follow Germany’s lead more throughout negotiations. Government Negotiation Position Euroscepticism – specifically around the EU migration crisis – definesAustrian politics and its approach to UK-EU negotiations. 8 11 October 2016 BELGIUM Key People Trade with UK Prime Minister Charles Michel, Reformist Movement (MR) UK exports Balance UK imports Bart De Wever, New Flemish Alliance (NVA) Leader €19.50bn €-10.67bn €30.18bn Upcoming elections UK-Belgium migration Federal election in 2019 UK CITIZENS IN BELGIUM BELGIANS IN THE UK 27,000 17,000 Risk of Populism/Eurospecticism? Secessionist region? Yes – the NVA has benefited from populist support in Flanders, however supports Flemish Yes – Flanders has popular support for independence within the EU. independence. The Flemish national party, the NVA, controls the Flemish Government and is in coalition in the Federal Government. Analysis As a founding member of the EU and the host of its seat of power, Belgium is at Europe’s heart. It will therefore form a key member of the core EU27 Member States advocating a staunch negotiation line against dividing the EU’s four freedoms. Despite this national mind set, the powerful populist Flemish nationalist NVA party has developed a strain of Euroscepticism that advocates more national powers