WATERSIDE RAIL RE-OPENING STRATEGIC OUTLINE BUSINESS CASE February 2021 1 Contents Executive Summary .............................................................................................................. 1 1. Introduction .................................................................................................................. 11 2. The Approach to this Business Case ........................................................................... 13 2.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 13 2.2 The Five Case Model ............................................................................................ 13 2.3 Business Case Process ........................................................................................ 13 3. Strategic Case ............................................................................................................. 14 3.1 Developing the Strategic Case .............................................................................. 14 3.2 Background to the proposed Waterside Rail re-opening scheme .......................... 15 3.3 The Strategic Context ........................................................................................... 16 3.3.1 National Context ............................................................................................ 18 3.3.2 Regional Context ........................................................................................... 19 3.4 The Problem Identified (Case for Change) ............................................................ 22 3.4.1 Issue 1: Weak Productivity levels and low proportion of knowledge economy jobs 23 3.4.2 Issue 2: The Waterside area has poor transport connectivity and high dependence on the private car ..................................................................................... 24 3.4.3 Issue 3: Waterside has a low level of self-containment for travel to work increasing pressure on transport networks ................................................................... 28 3.4.4 Issue 4: A significant amount of Growth is Planned for the Totton and Waterside area increasing travel demand .................................................................... 30 3.4.5 Issue 5: The Waterside contains a number of wards with deprivation & health inequalities – limited access to services can contribute to social exclusion .................. 31 3.5 Impact of Not Changing ........................................................................................ 33 3.6 Internal Drivers of Change .................................................................................... 34 3.7 External Drivers of Change ................................................................................... 34 3.8 Scheme Aims and Objectives ............................................................................... 35 3.9 Measures for Success .......................................................................................... 36 3.10 Options Identified .................................................................................................. 36 3.10.1 Assessment of Options Long List ................................................................... 38 3.10.2 Operational Viability ....................................................................................... 39 3.10.3 Summary of Findings on Train Service Options ............................................. 40 3.10.4 Station Options .............................................................................................. 41 3.10.5 Summary of Options Taken Forward ............................................................. 43 3.11 Detailed Assessment of Shortlisted Options.......................................................... 44 3.11.1 Rail infrastructure enhancements ................................................................... 44 3.11.2 Timetable Validation ...................................................................................... 49 3.12 Overview of stakeholders ...................................................................................... 52 3.13 Constraints ........................................................................................................... 54 3.14 Inter-dependencies ............................................................................................... 55 3.14.1 Alignment with other Planned Transport Schemes ......................................... 55 3.14.2 Committed (fully funded) schemes: ................................................................ 55 3.14.3 Other schemes to be progressed subject to NSIP/ Planning consent and satisfactory business cases:......................................................................................... 56 i 4. Economic Case ............................................................................................................ 58 4.1 Overview of Economic Appraisal Methodology ..................................................... 58 4.2 Costs of the Shortlisted Options ............................................................................ 59 4.2.1 Capital Costs ................................................................................................. 59 4.2.2 Operating Costs ............................................................................................. 61 4.3 Modelling Approach and Assumptions .................................................................. 63 4.3.1 Do minimum SRTM Assumptions .................................................................. 63 4.3.2 Demand and Revenue Forecasts ................................................................... 64 4.3.3 Abstraction of Demand from other modes ...................................................... 66 4.4 Appraisal of Transport User Benefits .................................................................... 67 4.5 Appraisal of monetised costs and benefits ............................................................ 68 4.6 Sensitivity tests ..................................................................................................... 68 4.7 Environmental Impacts ......................................................................................... 69 4.8 Impacts During Construction ................................................................................. 71 4.9 Accessibility and social inclusion impacts ............................................................. 71 4.10 Level 2 and Level 3 Wider Impacts ....................................................................... 73 5. Financial Case ............................................................................................................. 74 6. Commercial Case ........................................................................................................ 76 6.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 76 6.2 Sourcing Options and Procurement Strategy ........................................................ 76 6.3 Procurement Timescales ...................................................................................... 77 6.4 Commercial Risks to Delivery – Land and consents .............................................. 77 7. Management Case ....................................................................................................... 78 7.1 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 78 7.2 Evidence of Similar Projects Delivered by HCC/NR .............................................. 78 7.3 High level Project Delivery Programme ................................................................. 78 7.4 Governance & reporting arrangements ................................................................. 78 7.5 Communications and Stakeholder Management/ Engagement Plan ..................... 79 7.6 Risk Management Strategy ................................................................................... 80 7.7 Monitoring and Evaluation ..................................................................................... 81 7.8 Summary of overall approach for project management ......................................... 82 Appendices ......................................................................................................................... 83 ii List of Figures Figure 2-1– Three Phase Business Case Process .............................................................. 13 Figure 3-1 – Strategic Transport Connections between South Hampshire and other regions ........................................................................................................................................... 16 Figure 3-2 – GVA per head for sub-areas of New Forest District relative to the GVA per head for the District as a whole (=100), 2015 (Source: ONS 2016 and HCC 2017 estimates)...... 23 Figure 3-3– % GVA Growth per annum over the period 2010-2015 for New Forest District, Hampshire and the UK (Source: ONS 2016 and HCC 2017 estimates)............................... 23 Figure 3-4– % Contribution to GVA of different economic sectors in Totton & Waterside (Source: HCC 2017 estimates) ........................................................................................... 24 Figure 3-5– Education levels of residents of Totton & Waterside area (2011 Census) ........ 24 Figure 3-6- Map showing