Cover_Winter 2013 12/10/2012 9:19 AM Page 1 Dædalus coming up in Dædalus: The Common Good Norman Ornstein, William Galston, Amy Gutmann & Dennis Thompson, Mickey Edwards, Thomas Mann, Deborah Tannen, Dædalus Howard Gardner, Geoffrey Stone, Kwame Anthony Appiah, Andrew A. Hill, Leonard Wong & Stephen J. Gerras, Kathleen Hall Jamieson, Journal of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences Jeffrey Rosen, Michael Schudson, Andy Stern, Ralph Gomory & Winter 2013 Richard Sylla, Peter Dobkin Hall, and others Immigration Douglas S. Massey, Rogelio Saenz & Karen Manges Douglas, Cristina vol. 2 Winter 2013: The Alternative Energy Future, & the Future Rodriguez, Marta Tienda & Susana Sanchez, Victor Nee & Hilary The Robert W. Fri The Scope of the Transition 5 of America Holbrow, Nancy Foner, Alejandro Portes & Adrienne Celaya, Audrey Alternative Hal Harvey, A Trillion Tons 8 Singer, Mary Waters & Philip Kasinitz, Helen Marrow, Michael Jones- Energy Franklin M. Orr, Jr. Correa & Els de Graauw, Charles Hirschman, Rubén Rumbaut, Richard Future, & Clara Vondrich Alba, Frank Bean & Jennifer Lee, and others vol. 2 Jon A. Krosnick Does the American Public Support Legislation & Bo MacInnis to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions? 26 plus New American Music, What Humanists Do, Challenges for a Naomi Oreskes The Collapse of Western Civilization: Rising China &c. & Erik M. Conway A View from the Future 40 Kelly Sims Gallagher Why & How Governments Support Renewable Energy 59 Thomas Dietz, Reducing Carbon-Based Energy Consumption Paul C. Stern through Changes in Household Behavior 78 & Elke U. Weber Roger E. Kasperson The Public Acceptance of & Bonnie J. Ram New Energy Technologies 90 Robert O. Keohane The Transnational Politics of Energy 97 & David G. Victor Dallas Burtraw The Institutional Blind Spot in Environmental Economics 110 Ann E. Carlson Designing a Durable Energy Policy 119 & Robert W. Fri Michael H. Dworkin, Rethinking the Scale, Structure & Scope Roman V. Sidortsov of U.S. Energy Institutions 129 & Benjamin K. Sovacool Rosina M. Bierbaum Energy in the Context of Sustainability 146 & Pamela A. Matson Stephen Ansolabehere Social Sciences & the Alternative & Robert W. Fri Energy Future 162 U.S. $13; www.amacad.org Cherishing Knowledge · Shaping the Future Cover_Winter 2013 12/10/2012 9:19 AM Page 2 Book_Winter 2013_Shinner.qxd 12/10/2012 8:50 AM Page 1 Inside front cover: Clockwise from top left: A group of men install solar panels, © moodboard/Getty Images; a man uses a digital tablet to check energy levels in his home, © Monty Rakusen/Getty Images; a man installs ½berglass insulation in a wall cavity, © iStockphoto .com/tinabelle; a girl replaces an incandescent light- bulb with a compact fluorescent lightbulb, © Jeff Randall/Getty Images. Book_Winter 2013_Shinner.qxd 12/10/2012 8:50 AM Page 2 Robert W. Fri and Stephen Ansolabehere, Guest Editors Phyllis S. Bendell, Managing Editor and Director of Publications D Micah J. Buis, Associate Editor Erica Dorpalen, Assistant Editor Board of advisers Steven Marcus, Editor of the Academy Committee on Studies and Publications Jerrold Meinwald and John Mark Hansen, Cochairs; Jesse H. Choper, Denis Donoghue, Gerald Early, Carol Gluck, Linda Greenhouse, John Hildebrand, Jerome Kagan, Philip Khoury, Neal Lane, Eric Sundquist; ex of½cio: Leslie Cohen Berlowitz Dædalus is designed by Alvin Eisenman. Book_Winter 2013_Shinner.qxd 12/10/2012 8:50 AM Page 3 Dædalus Journal of the American Academy of Arts & Sciences The labyrinth designed by Daedalus for King Minos of Crete, on a silver tetradrachma from Cnossos, Crete, c. 350–300 b.c. (35 mm, Cabinet des Médailles, Bibliothèque Nationale, Paris). “Such was the work, so intricate the place, / That scarce the workman all its turns cou’d trace; / And Daedalus was puzzled how to ½nd / The secret ways of what himself design’d.”–Ovid, Metamorphoses, Book 8 Dædalus was founded in 1955 and established as a quarterly in 1958. The journal’s namesake was renowned in ancient Greece as an inventor, scien- tist, and unriddler of riddles. Its emblem, a maze seen from above, symbol- izes the aspiration of its founders to “lift each of us above his cell in the lab- yrinth of learning in order that he may see the entire structure as if from above, where each separate part loses its comfortable separateness.” The American Academy of Arts & Sciences, like its journal, brings togeth- er distinguished individuals from every ½eld of human endeavor. It was char- tered in 1780 as a forum “to cultivate every art and science which may tend to advance the interest, honour, dignity, and happiness of a free, independent, and virtuous people.” Now in its third century, the Academy, with its nearly ½ve thousand elected members, continues to provide intellectual leadership to meet the critical challenges facing our world. Book_Winter 2013_Shinner.qxd 12/18/2012 2:14 PM Page 4 Dædalus Winter 2013 Subscription rates: Electronic only for non- Issued as Volume 142, Number 1 member individuals–$44; institutions–$123. Canadians add 5% gst. Print and electronic for © 2013 by the American Academy nonmember individuals–$49; institutions– of Arts & Sciences $136. Canadians add 5% gst. Outside the Unit- The Collapse of Western Civilization: ed States and Canada add $23 for postage and A View from the Future handling. Prices subject to change without © 2013 by Naomi Oreskes notice. & Erik M. Conway Why & How Governments Support Institutional subscriptions are on a volume- Renewable Energy year basis. All other subscriptions begin with © 2013 by Kelly Sims Gallagher the next available issue. The Transnational Politics of Energy Single issues: $13 for individuals; $34 for insti- © 2013 by Robert O. Keohane tutions. Outside the United States and Canada & David G. Victor add $6 per issue for postage and handling. The Institutional Blind Spot in Prices subject to change without notice. Environmental Economics © 2013 by Dallas Burtraw Claims for missing issues will be honored free of charge if made within three months of the Editorial of½ces: Dædalus, Norton’s Woods, publication date of the issue. Claims may be 136 Irving Street, Cambridge ma 02138. submitted to [email protected]. Members of Phone: 617 491 2600. Fax: 617 576 5088. the American Academy please direct all ques- Email: [email protected]. tions and claims to [email protected]. 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Each size of Cycles has been separately Newsstand distribution by Ingram Periodicals designed in the tradition of metal types. Inc., 18 Ingram Blvd., La Vergne tn 37086, and Source Interlink Distribution, 27500 Riverview Center Blvd., Bonita Springs fl 34134. Postmaster: Send address changes to Dædalus, 55 Hayward Street, Cambridge ma 02142-1315. Periodicals postage paid at Boston ma and at additional mailing of½ces. Book_Winter 2013_Shinner.qxd 12/10/2012 8:52 AM Page 5 The Alternative Energy Future: The Scope of the Transition Robert W. Fri This issue of Dædalus expands a discussion that began in the journal’s Spring 2012 issue. That ear- lier volume focused on the persistent stalemate in energy policy and on steps that might nonetheless be feasible to make progress in the relatively short term. This issue takes a longer and larger view. Our discussion in the earlier volume began with the observation that since the time of the ½rst opec oil embargo, every American president has prom- ised to create a secure, clean, and affordable energy system. Unfortunately, every president has also come up short on his promise. The energy system is somewhat cleaner and considerably more ef½cient than it was in 1970, but it continues to rely heavily on fossil fuels–namely, oil, coal, and natural gas. The volume concluded that although some viable policies can usefully nudge the system away from fossil fuels, conditions do not now favor dramatic energy-policy initiatives. Developments since last ROBERT W. FRI, a Fellow of the American Academy since 2010, is a spring af½rm that stance and indeed seem to be Visiting Scholar and Senior Fel- providing a strong push in the opposite direction. low Emeritus at Resources for the In particular, America’s vast reserves of oil and nat- Future, where he previously served ural gas trapped in geologic shale formations are as President.