SOCIAL RESEARCH NUMBER: 05/2018 PUBLICATION DATE: 25/01/2018 Central Valleys Railway Package Final Evaluation: Final Report © Crown Copyright Digital ISBN 978-1-78903-403-5 Central Valleys Railway Package Final Evaluation: Final Report AECOM Full Research Report: AECOM (2018). Central Valleys Railway Package Final Evaluation: Final Report. Cardiff: Welsh Government. GSR report number 05/2018 Available at: http://gov.wales/statistics-and-research/evaluation-central- valleys-railway-package/?lang=en Views expressed in this report are those of the researcher and not necessarily those of the Welsh Government For further information please contact: Joanne Corke Social Research and Information Division Knowledge and Analytical Services Welsh Government Cathays Park Cardiff CF10 3NQ Tel: 0300 025 1138 Email: [email protected] Table of contents List of tables ........................................................................................................................... 3 List of Figures ........................................................................................................................ 3 Glossary ................................................................................................................................. 4 Executive Summary ............................................................................................................... 5 Introduction ............................................................................................................................ 5 Key findings ........................................................................................................................... 5 Recommendations ................................................................................................................. 7 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................. 11 Evaluation Scope ................................................................................................................. 11 Process Evaluation .............................................................................................................. 12 Interviewees ......................................................................................................................... 14 Impact Evaluation ................................................................................................................ 15 2. Project Overview ..................................................................................................... 16 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 16 Objectives ............................................................................................................................ 16 Project Inputs ....................................................................................................................... 16 Project Outputs .................................................................................................................... 16 Anticipated Project Results .................................................................................................. 17 3. Finance ................................................................................................................... 19 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 19 Planned Costs...................................................................................................................... 19 Outturn Costs ....................................................................................................................... 21 Barriers and Constraints - Reasons for cost variations ........................................................ 22 Cost Management ................................................................................................................ 22 Lessons for future projects ................................................................................................... 23 4. Schedule/Programme .............................................................................................. 25 Planned Timescales ............................................................................................................. 25 Actual Timescales ................................................................................................................ 27 Barriers and Constraints ...................................................................................................... 29 Lessons for future projects ................................................................................................... 30 5. Stakeholder Engagement ........................................................................................ 31 Barriers and Constraints ...................................................................................................... 32 Lessons for future projects ................................................................................................... 34 6. Risk Management ................................................................................................... 35 1 Planned Approach to Risk Management .............................................................................. 35 Materialisation of Risks ........................................................................................................ 38 Lessons for future projects ................................................................................................... 39 7. Project Management ............................................................................................... 41 Project Team........................................................................................................................ 41 Programme Management Board .......................................................................................... 42 WEFO Rail Programme Board ............................................................................................. 46 Effectiveness of Monitoring and Evaluation Activities .......................................................... 47 Equal Opportunities Monitoring ............................................................................................ 49 Lessons for future projects ................................................................................................... 50 8. Energlyn Impact Assessment .................................................................................. 51 Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 51 Objectives of the schemes ................................................................................................... 51 Gross/Net passenger kilometres .......................................................................................... 53 Improved reliability, customer satisfaction, comfort and convenience.................................. 56 Reduction in car demand ..................................................................................................... 58 Jobs Created........................................................................................................................ 58 Enhanced Access to jobs/education .................................................................................... 59 Business Accessibility .......................................................................................................... 61 Attribution of Results to CVR Project ................................................................................... 61 9. Cross-Cutting Themes ............................................................................................ 64 Equal Opportunities ............................................................................................................. 64 Environmental Sustainability ................................................................................................ 66 Value for Money ................................................................................................................... 66 10. Conclusions ............................................................................................................. 67 11. Recommendations .................................................................................................. 69 Finance ................................................................................................................................ 69 Schedule/Programme .......................................................................................................... 69 Stakeholder Engagement .................................................................................................... 69 Risk Management ................................................................................................................ 70 Programme Management .................................................................................................... 70 Annex A – Passenger Survey Results ................................................................................. 72 Annex B – Technical Review of Business Case................................................................... 76 2 List of tables Table 2.1 WEFO Objectives ...............................................................................................