Succession Politics in Indonesia Also by Bilveer Singh ABRI AND THE SECURITY OF SOUTHEAST ASIA THE CHALLENGE OF CONVENTIONAL ARMS PROLIFERATION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA DWIFUNGSI ABRI: The Dual Function of the Indonesian Armed Forces EAST TIMOR, INDONESIA AND THE WORLD: Myths and Realities THE GARUDA AND BEAR: Soviet-Indonesian Relations from Lenin to Gorbachev SINGAPORE-INDONESIA RELATIONS: Problems and Perspectives (co-editor) SOVIET RELATIONS WITH ASEAN, 1967-88 THE SOVIET UNION IN SINGAPORE'S FOREIGN POLICY: An Analysis Succession Politics in Indonesia The 1998 Presidential Elections and the Fall of Suharto Bilveer Singh Associate Professor National University of Singapore First published in Great Britain 2000 by MACMILLAN PRESS LTD Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS and London Companies and representatives throughout the world A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. ISBN 978-1-349-41696-7 ISBN 978-0-230-51356-3 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9780230513563 First published in the United States of America 2000 by ST. MARTIN'S PRESS, INC., Scholarly and Reference Division, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010 ISBN 978-0-312-22914-3 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Singh, Bilveer, 1956- Succession politics in Indonesia : the 1998 presidential elections and the fall of Suharto I Bilveer Singh. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-0-312-22914-3 I. Indonesia-Politics and govemment-1966-1998. 2. Indonesia­ -Politics and govemment-1998- 3. Soeharto, 1921- . I. Title. DS644.4.S5824 1999 320.9598'09'049-dc21 99-38753 CIP © Bilveer Singh 2000 Soft cover reprint of the hard cover 1st edition 2000 978-0-333-77602-5 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London WI P OLP. Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The author has asserted his right to be identified as the author of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. 10 9 8 7 6 5 3 4 2 09 08 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 (^Dedication (Qeloved ^family Qurdxal Cjasmxnder (prabhxnder CONTENTS LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ix PREFACE xiii INTRODUCTION 1 1. The 'Succession Debates' and Scenarios in Indonesia, March 1993-March 1998 12 2. The May 1997 Indonesian General Elections and Changes in ABRI Leadership in the Context of the Presidential Elections 32 3. Political Manoeuvres Prior to the Presidential Elections and the March 1998 MPR Session 50 4. Post-MPR Politics and the Fall of Suharto 77 5. Contending Explanations of Suharto's Fall: A Peoples' Power Revolution or a Political Conspiracy? 99 6. Post-Suharto Indonesia: The Potential and Limits of Habibie' s Reforms 155 vn CONTENTS 7. Habibie' s Foreign Policy 237 CONCLUSION Prospects for the Future: Whither Indonesia? 262 SELECT BIBLIOGRAPHY 280 INDEX 290 Vlll LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ABRI Angkatan Bersenjata Republik Indonesia (Armed Forces of the Republic of Indone sia) APEC Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASEM Asia Europe Meeting ASPRI Assisten Presiden (Presidential Assistants) BABINSA Bintara Pembina Desa (Village Development Non- Commissioned Officer) BAKIN Badan Kordanasi Intelijen Negara (National Intelligence Co-odinating Agency) BIA Badan Intelijen ABRI (ABRI's Intelligence Agency) CIDES Centre for Information and Development Studies IX LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS CSIS Centre for Strategic and International Studies DPA Dewan Pertimbangan Agung (Supreme Advisory Council) DPR Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat (House of Representatives) FKI Forum Kerja Indonesia (Indonesia Working Forum) GBHN Garis-Garis Besar Haluan Negara (Broad Outline of State Policy) GESTAPU Gerakan September Tiga Puluh (30th September Movement) GNP Gross National Product GOLKAR Golongan Karya (Functional Group) G-15 Group of 15 ICMI Ikatan Cendekiawan Muslim Indonesia (Indonesian Muslim Intellectuals' Asso ciation) IKD Institut Kajian Dasar (Institute of Policy Studies) IMF International Monetary Fund LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS KKN Korupsi, Kolusi, Nepotism Corruption, Collusion, Nepotism KOPKAMTIB Komando Operasi Pemulihan Keamanan dan Ketertitan (Operation Command for the Restoration of Security and Order) KOSGORO Koperasi Serba Guna Gotong Royong (Multipurpose Co-operatives for Mutual Assistance) KOSTRAD Komando Strategic Angkatan Darat (Army Strategic and Reserve Command) LEMHANNAS Lembaga Pertahanan Nasional (National Defence institute) MAR Majlis Amanah Rakyat (Council for People's Mandate) MPR Majlis Permusyawaratan Rakyat (People's Consultative Assembly) NAM Non-Aligned Movement NGO Non-governmental Organisation NU Nahdatul Ulama OPSUS Operasi Khusus (Special Operations) PAP People's Action Party XI LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS PDI Parti Demokratik Indonesia (Indonesian Democratic Party) PKI Parti Komunis Indonesia (Communist Party of Indonesia) PSI Parti Sosialis Indonesia (Indonesian Socialist Party) SAF Singapore Armed Forces SUPERSEMAR Surat Perintah Sebelas Maret (Letter of Instruction of 11 March) UMNO United Malay National Organization xn PREFACE olitics is the exercise of state power and those who wield such powers can affect policy constructs of the P state and affect lives of people living therein. In the case of Indonesia, of all the political offices, the Presidency is the single most important political office and wields the most power. Even President B. J. Habibie, the present incumbent was frank enough to admit this, arguing that 'according to the rules of the game of Indonesian politics, the President is one of the most powerful man in the country', something which the incumbent finds rather disturbing as 'this can be simply too dangerous'.* The responsibilities of the President have been enshrined in the 1945 Constitution, providing the Chief Executive with immense powers, including being the Head of State, Head of Government, Mandataris of the Peoples' Con- sultative Assembly and Supreme Commander of the Armed Forces. As an Asian country with a great political past, the actual powers of the Chief Executive are written as well as found in unwritten conventions and practices, and thus, the President is actually more powerful than can be expected. With so much at stake, the contest for the Presidency is extremely im- portant in Indonesia, all the more since the country had, until March 1998, experienced only two 'presidential successions', and that too, during turbulent times with great loss of lives. Author's interview with President of the Republic of Indonesia, Profes- sor B. J. Habibie on 3 October 1998. Xlll PREFACE In this study, succession refers to the way in which politi- cal power passes or is transferred from one individual to an- other. Narrowly, it is the orderly arrangements made for the transfer of power and how a regime manages the transition period. The ability to make transition of this kind peacefully over a period of time is taken as one of the many indicators of political stability. While in most political systems, succession can take place in the highest to the lowest office, in this study, the concern is essentially with the Presidency and to some ex- tent, the Vice-Presidency. Succession is necessary due to the physiological existence of man - the only certainty about man is his mortality, making succession something that is inevita- ble, regardless of how powerful a man may be. The only un- known is when and how this will take place. Succession can come through renewal or through the forcible removal of the incumbent and where a new 'contract' would have to be worked out between the Ruler and the Ruled. In this context, the challenge of the March 1998 Presidential elections in Indonesia was whether the process and mecha- nism established would be able to meet the challenges thrown up by the manifold crises confronting the country. Here, one of the key questions was what it would mean for the future of Indonesian politics in the even of Suharto's re-election to the Presidency for the seventh term. In view of Suharto's ripe age and various medical problems, on the one hand, and the im- mense political, economic and social problems facing the country, on the other, the key question was whether Suharto would eventually transfer power to his successor in an orderly and peaceful manner or would this be undertaken in turbulence as had been undertaken by his predecessors, especially if his re-election was opposed by various political groups. In the end, even though Suharto was re-elected for the record seventh term, his Presidency was a beleaguered one with the contraction of the economy, unleashing political and xiv PREFACE social challenges that were to culminate in the May 1998 Revolution that ultimately forced Indonesia's 'strongman' to resign in favour of his Vice-President, B. J. Habibie. With that, Indonesia precipitously entered into the post-New Order, post- Suharto era, one full of uncertainties and crises. It is against this backdrop that this study aims to analyse the politics of succes- sion in Indonesia and try to provide some answers as how a man, dubbed the 'best son of the soil' and elected overwhelm- ingly by a well-oiled political machinery, was eventually forced to resign 72 days later. xv.