UNIVERSITY OF TARTU European Master’s Degree in Human Rights and Democratisation A.Y. 2015/2016 QUESTIONING THE EU'S NORMATIVE POWER IN AZERBAIJAN An assessment of the EU's democracy promotion programmes from the recipients' perspective Author: Elise Guillot Supervisor: Dr. Maria Malksöo ABSTRACT Although the academic literature has already largely dealt with the EU democracy promotion, notably towards its Neighbourhood, little attention has been granted to laggard countries in terms of human rights and democracy, including Azerbaijan. The country's human rights record is worrisome and worsening, especially since the 2014 crackdown on the civil society. Drawing on the concept of Normative Power Europe and relying on qualitative interviews, this thesis questions the extent to which the EU remains a normative power in Azerbaijan, considering both the concrete achievements of the EU on the ground and their assessment by representatives of the Azerbaijani civil society. The present contribution underlines the importance of taking into account the recipients' perspective(s) for the analysis of democracy promotion programmes. This research reveals that the EU's democracy promotion agenda does not follow a unique approach but that the different EU institutions favour distinct instruments to foster democratisation in Azerbaijan. It also appears that EU institutions have not consistently enforced their democracy promotion programmes. The local civil society, while praising the EU's narrative, awaits more commitment and more implementation from the regional organisation. Local democracy promoters advocate for a tougher stance from the EU, involving stronger conditionality mechanisms and sanctions. 2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Time has now come to express my thanks to the many people who have helped me along the way and contributed to the realisation of this thesis, which has certainly been, on the academic as well as on the human level, a very enriching experience. I first would like to warmly thank my supervisor, Dr. Maria Malksöo, for her advice, continual availability, and support. My gratefulness goes likewise to the many people who took time to exchange and share their views with me: Avaz Hasanov, Turgut Gambar, Ilyas Safarli, Celia Davies, Zaur Akbar, Jeyhun Veliyev, Elvin Yusifli, as well as the EU officials and NGOs representatives who agreed to take part in this research. Many thanks also to my family (brothers included), and especially to my parents, without which I would probably not have developed such an acute interest for human rights nor would I have been able to study this programme. Thank you for your continuous support to my projects, also when they take me far away from home. I also thank the fellow students I had the privilege and pleasure to study with during those two semesters: my very soul sisters, Herman and Vaclav, for sharing puzzle (un)competence and knowledge about cottage cheese. I also thank Lili for feeding me with food and sometimes thoughts, and Georgie for pretending to laugh at my jokes without understanding my very Essex English pronunciation. The writing process of this thesis has been much easier at your side! A huge hug to all the friends I cannot name here and who have been of constant support, also when I would need weeks to send some signs of life. And a special thank to Paul, for being at my side while living thousands of kilometres away, and for providing me with some thoughtful advice (for change ;)) for this thesis. 3 Table of Contents ABSTRACT..............................................................................................................2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS.............................................................................................3 ABBREVIATIONS.......................................................................................................7 INTRODUCTION........................................................................................................8 I. Rationale for research on EU democracy promotion in Azerbaijan ........................8 II. State of the literature.............................................................................................10 A. Review of the literature on democracy promotion and EU's normative power 10 B. Existing research on the EU human rights and democracy promotion in Azerbaijan..............................................................................................................12 III. Research questions and methodological framework............................................15 A. Research questions and scope of the analysis...................................................15 B. Methodological framework...............................................................................20 1. Analysis of the EU's approach of Azerbaijan's democratisation...................20 2. Assessment of the EU's democracy promotion programmes by local civil society organisations' representatives................................................................21 a. General challenges raising from qualitative interviews............................21 b. Interviewing in the Azerbaijani context with limited resources...............22 CHAPTER 1 – THE EUROPEAN UNION AS SELF-PROCLAIMED NORMATIVE POWER.......25 I. Normative Power Europe.......................................................................................25 II. Specifying NPE: towards a EU's definition of democracy promotion..................29 III. EU's approaches to foster democracy: Lavenex and Schimmelfennig's models of democracy promotion.................................................................................................32 IV. The execution of the EU's democracy promotion programmes: overview of a complex institutional framework ..............................................................................36 CHAPTER 2 – AZERBAIJAN'S POOR STATE OF DEMOCRATIC AFFAIRS AND WEAK HUMAN RIGHTS RECORD.....................................................................................................41 I. Short historical perspective since Azerbaijan's independence................................41 II. Current state of (un)democratic affairs.................................................................42 A. A democratic constitutional framework............................................................42 4 B. A different reality: the Azerbaijani autocratic regime.......................................44 III. Azerbaijan's specific challenges: contextualising the EU democracy promotion .....................................................................................................................................49 CHAPTER 3 – THE EU'S HUMAN RIGHTS AND DEMOCRACY PROMOTION ACTIVITIES IN AZERBAIJAN..........................................................................................................52 I. Overview of the EU-Azerbaijan relations since 1991: energy, security and democracy?.................................................................................................................52 II. Analysis of the EU's democracy promotion activities in Azerbaijan....................55 A. Overarching goals of the EU regarding democracy and human rights in Azerbaijan .............................................................................................................55 B. Instruments of the EU democracy promotion in Azerbaijan ............................59 1. EU instruments falling under the leverage model.........................................59 a. Political dialogue with the authorities.......................................................59 b. Financial conditionality: positive and negative mechanisms ..................61 c. Political and economic incentives and the threat of sanctions..................65 d. Political pressure through diplomatic statements and resolutions............67 2. EU instruments falling under the linkage model...........................................69 a. The European Instrument for Democracy and Human Rights and the Civil Society Facility.............................................................................................69 b. Direct contacts and partnerships with the Azerbaijani civil society.........72 c. The Civil Society Forum...........................................................................73 d. The European Endowment for Democracy..............................................74 3. EU instruments falling under the governance model ...................................75 III. Interim conclusion: the EU's democracy promotion mixed approach in Azerbaijan...................................................................................................................76 CHAPTER 4 – THE EU AND LOCAL DEMOCRACY PROMOTERS: AN INFORMAL COALITION ?..........................................................................................................79 I. Interview sample: profile of the participants..........................................................80 II. The EU: a normative power in Azerbaijan? General perceptions of the EU's involvement and results..............................................................................................83 A. The EU: a normative agenda along with economic and energy interests ?.......83 B. The EU: a transformative power?......................................................................84 5 III. Assessment of the EU tools to promote democracy and human rights................86 A. EU instruments falling under the leverage model.............................................87