The volume before you results from the federal funded research project “Young Cities – Developing Urban Energy Efficiency”. It has been written by Technische Universität Berlin Technische Universität Berlin Zentrum Technik und Gesellschaft Department of Building Technology Bereich “Mobilität und Raum” and Architectural Design Hardenbergstraße 16–18, HBS 1 Straße des 17. Juni 152 10623 Berlin | Germany 10623 Berlin | Germany www.ztg.tu-berlin.de www.a.tu-berlin.de/gte Universität der Künste Berlin FG Versorgungsplanung und Versorgungstechnik Hardenbergstraße 33 10623 Berlin | Germany www.arch.udk-berlin.de/nytsch German-Iranian Research Project Young Cities Young Cities Research Briefs | 13 Developing Energy-Efficient Urban Fabric in the Tehran-Karaj Region www.youngcities.org CO2 Balance for Buildings and Transportation in Hashtgerd New Town and Tehran Region Wulf-Holger Arndt, Jörg Huber, René Kämpfer, Farshad Nasrollahi Table of Contents Imprint Abstract ................. 3 1 Framework Conditions and Assumptions ........ 5 2 Scenarios . .11 3 Modelling Approach ..............12 4 References .................30 Design/Typesetting büro-d | Communication Design Berlin Publisher Universitätsverlag der TU Berlin ISSN 2196-517X (Print) Universitätsbibliothek ISSN 2196-6583 (Online) Fasanenstr. 88 ISBN 978-3-7983-2583-8 (Print) 10623 Berlin | Germany ISBN 978-3-7983-2584-5 (Online) www.univerlag.tu-berlin.de Simultaneously published online on the Digital Repository of the Technische Universität Berlin URL http://opus.kobv.de/tuberlin/volltexte/2013/4064/ URN urn:nbn:de:kobv:83-opus-40640 [http://nbn-resolving.de/urn:nbn:de:kobv:83-opus-40640] All texts are based on scientific research performed within the Young Cities Project. All pictures, tables and graphics are courtesy of the respective article’s authors, unless otherwise mentioned. © 2013 All rights reserved by the Technische Universität Berlin. Abstract Due to the very high energy consumption in the Tehran region, CO2 emis- sions are also very high, with the residential and commercial buildings mak- ing up the largest share of 41 % by 2008 and for transportation up to 25 %. This publication tries to estimate the results of different planning fields in New Town Hashtgerd and Tehran-Karaj region in Iran regarding the de- velopment of CO2 emissions. Concerning this goal the expressiveness of the paper is limited to emissions caused by mixed-use-buildings, office-build- ings and transportation. In order to evaluate the project’s impact in terms of CO2 reduction, the emission savings through the implementation of Young Cities’ project find- ings and recommendations are estimated. The CO2 emissions of buildings and transportation are calculated based on their energy consumption, based on energy simulation, and the CO2 emission factors for different energy car- riers. First the specific CO2 emissions are balanced for the project area of Hashtgerd New Town and then they are extrapolated for the whole former Tehran province. The CO2 emissions per capita and year are estimated and compared us- ing two forecast scenarios for the year 2027 based on the preliminary results of the residential and office building as well as transport planning within the Young Cities project. The first scenario “business as usual 2027” visual- izes the CO2 emissions in 2027, with the development following the current trends in Iran. The second scenario “planning scenario 2027” forecasts the CO2 emissions for 2027 assuming that two per cent of all new buildings are built according to the results of the Young Cities project and the suggested transportation system is implemented. The comparison of these two scenarios indicates the possible reduc- tion of CO2 emissions for 2027 achieved through the implementation of the Young Cities’ research findings. All areas monitored show significant poten- tials of possible emission savings which have been developed in the Young Cities project. It therefore appears that the implementation of the developed measures could lead to eminent energy and emission savings in comparison with conventional planning, construction and behavior approaches. Anyway it needs to be born that the results provided in this paper is based on simu- lation algorithms trying to represent real conditions as far as possible. As long as those estimations are based on various assumptions meanderings can 3 therefore not be excluded. To fulfill the requirements of an overall CO2 bal- ance in Hashtgerd additional energy intensive fields like industry, agricul- ture and power plant need to consider as well. Nonetheless the results of this paper underline the effectiveness of the developed approaches and empha- size ways of future development in the Tehran-Karaj region. Conceptual Formulation The aim is to calculate the CO2 emissions per capita caused by mixed-use- buildings, office-buildings and transportation in Hashtgerd New Town and Tehran Region. Thereby different scenarios should be compiled and com- pared with each other. 4 CO2 Balance for Buildings and Transportation in Hashtgerd New Town and Tehran Region 1 Framework Conditions and Assumptions 1.1 Region The calculation applies to the former Tehran Province, which has been di- vided in new Tehran and Alborz Provinces in August 2010 (Figure 1, the red colored space represents the former Tehran Province). The Region cov- ers 18,909 km² including the Tehran-Karaj region with nearly 13.2 million inhabitants, which is the area with the highest population density in Iran. Approximately 86.5 % of the population lives in cities and 13.5 % in rural parts of the Region. Ardebil Azarbayejan-e Sharqi Khorasan-e Gilan Golestan Shomali Azarbayejan-e Zanjan Gharbi Mazandaran Qazvin Kordestan Khorasan-e Razavi Tehran Semnan Hamedan Qom Kermanshah Markazi Lorestan LLam Isfahan Khorasan-e Jonubi Chaharmahal Yazd va Bakhtiyari Khuzestan Kohgiluyeh va – Boyerahmad – Kerman – Fars Bushehr – Sistan va Baluchestan – Hormozgan – – > Cartography: N. Döge GIS map base: http://thematicmapping.org/downloads/ world_borders.php and National Cartographic Center of Iran Fig. 1: Regions and Population Density in Iran Thematic data source: Wikipedia.org 5 County Area km2 2008 Population 2008 Population density Shahrestan inhabitants/km2 2008 ² Tehran-Karaj Region with all Counties Tehran-Karaj Region with all Counties Tehran-Karaj Region with all Counties Tehran Region with Counties inh./km² 1,000 above Tehran Region with Counties inh./km² 1,000 above Tehran Region with Counties inh./km 1,000 above Tehran-Karaj Region with Counties above 200 inh./km² Tehran-Karaj Region with Counties above 200 inh./km² Tehran-Karaj Region with Counties above 200 inh./km² Tehran-Karaj Region with Counties above 600 inh./km² Tehran-Karaj Region with Counties above 600 inh./km² Tehran-Karaj Region with Counties above 600 inh./km² D) D) C) C) D) D) A) B) C) C) D) D) A) B) A) B) C) Islamshahr 205 205 205 205 437,300 437,300 437,300 437,300 2,133.17 2,133.17 2,133.17 2,133.17 Pakdasht 670 670 268,900 268,900 401.34 401.34 Tehran 1,601 1,601 1,601 1,601 7,300,000 7,300,000 7,300,000 7,300,000 4,559.65 4,559.65 4,559.65 4,559.65 Damavand 1,997 87,998 44.07 Robat Karim 549 549 549 549 613,000 613,000 613,000 613,000 1,116.58 1,116.58 1,116.58 1,116.58 Shahre Rey 2,295 2,295 640,000 640,000 278.87 278.87 Savojbolag 2,258 210,600 93.27 Shemiranat 1,111 1,111 335,100 335,100 301.62 301.62 Shahriar 1,321 1,321 1,321 949,400 94,9400 949,400 718.70 718.70 718.70 Firouzkoh 2,261 40,000 17.69 Karaj 2,466 2,466 2,466 1,586,299 1,586,299 1,586,299 643.27 643.27 643.27 6 Nazarabad 576 576 136,700 136,700 237.33 237.33 1: 4 differentTab constraints of Tehran-Karaj Region based on populationdensity (own calculation based on Tehran Municipality, Tehran Statistical BookYear 2008–09, p. 48) Varamin 1,775 1,775 594,900 594,900 335.15 335.15 total 2,355 6,142 12,569 19,085 8,350,300 10,885,999 12,861,599 13,200,197 4,622.50 1,772.39 1,023.28 691.65 CO2 Balance for Buildings and Transportation in Hashtgerd New Town and Tehran Region This spatial scale was chosen because the area includes the whole function- al Region around the 2 linked Megacities Tehran and Karaj. Furthermore the availability of data for this area is much better than on other spatial scales. The Region also includes areas with very low density near the Alborz mountains in the north and the east as well as in the desert in the south and the west. A calculation of inhabitants, space and density based on the different settlement densities in the 13 old and new counties (“Shahrestan”) is visu- alized in table 1. Constrain A) and B) don’t include Hashtgerd New Town and the oth- er New Towns which are aimed at discharging the Urban Growth Center Tehran-Karaj. Therefore the following descriptions refer to a constraint be- tween Tehran and Karaj Provinces (shortened as “Tehran Region”). 1.2 Spatial Scale of Calculation First of all the CO2 emissions are balanced for Shahre Javan Community (building sector) and Hashtgerd New Town (transportation) because of better database. Following this there is an upscaling to the whole Tehran Province based on relative emissions per capita calculated in the first step. 1.3 Demographic Development It is estimated that the present 13,5 million inhabitants of Province Tehran and Province Alborz (2006) will grow up to 23,2 million in 2027 (Figure 2). The forecast is based on the average growth rates for Tehran Region from 1996 to 2006. 1996 2006 Growth 2020 2027 1375 1385 Rate ( %) 1399 1406 Iran 60,055,488 70,472,846A 1.48B 86,578,178 95,962,546 Tehran Province 10,343,000 13,413,348B 2.63C 19,301,192 23,153,018 Tehran City 6,758,845 7,705,036D 1.32C 9,56,306 10,145,402 Tab.