CAN FARMERS ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE? CAN FARMERS ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE? Arvind L. Sha J. Jangal R. Suresh CAN FARMERS ADAPT TO CLIMATE CHANGE? Supported by International Development Research Centre under the IDRC Opportunity Fund ISBN 978-818188816-99-x Public Affairs Centre No. 15, KIADB Industrial Area Bommasandra – Jigani Link Road Bangalore -562106 India Phone: +91 80 2783 9918/19/20 Email: [email protected] Web: pacindia.org © 2016 Public Affairs Centre Collaborators and Partners Field Partners Some rights reserved. Content in this publication can be freely shared, distributed, or adapted. However, any work, adapted or otherwise, derived from this publication must be attributed to Public Affairs Centre, Bangalore. This work may not be used for commercial purposes. This book is focussed at livelihood experts, community mangers, Think tanks, NGO’s and academicians who are working to understand the impacts of climate variability and the steps taken by the government, and local bodies to address this issues. This pioneering citizen centric study, triangulates climate change, communities and governance to understand how communities are coping with the issues of climate change. This study was funded as a part of IDRC Opportunity Fund and was conducted in collaboration with CSTEP, and ISET-N. Editing, layout, design and production by PUNYA PUBLISHING PVT. LTD. INDIA ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS This path-breaking study is the first step towards a larger initiative. The study could not have been completed without the help of several individuals and organisations. We are indebted to them, and take this opportunity to thank all those who contributed at various stages of the study. We thank the agrarian communities of the five study villages; Oourdeyanatham, Valapuram, Sathangudi, Nandivanam, and Karuvalarcheri (Kumbakonam taluk, Thanjavur district), who actively participated in the exercises. In addition, we are grateful to Mr. Renganathan, Chairman of the Cauvery Delta Farmers Association, for sharing his vast knowledge of agriculture and experience about the changes in the Cauvery delta. We gratefully acknowledge the help of officials of the Department of Agriculture, Thanjavur, for sharing their experience and perception, which enriched the study. We express our gratitude to civil-society organisations and institutes, which actively participated in the round table. Their participation made a tremendous contribution to the study by providing insight on agriculture; livelihoods, governance and climate change. We express our heartfelt thanks to the members of DHAN Foundation – our field partners, led by Mr. Adhinarayanan, Faculty at Tata-DHAN Academy, who helped to conduct the field research and round table, and greatly contributed in completing the study. Our special thanks are due to the team from the Institute for Social and Environmental Transition – Nepal (ISET-N), who joined us in the field exercise and shared their knowledge on scenario planning exercise. We are also thankful to Dr. Rajivkumar Chaturvedi (National Environmental Sciences Fellow, Indian v Institute of Science, Bangalore) for sharing his scientific analysis on climate change in Tamil Nadu. We are grateful to the Center for Study of Technology and Policy (CSTEP) for their support and cooperation in the successful completion of the study. We extend our thanks to Ms. Mary Pushpa Kanthi, Administrative Officer at PAC for playing a key role at various stages and in the completion of the study and Ms. Kirthana, an intern at PAC whose support during the field exercises was very useful to the study. vi Contents Acknowledgements v 1 Background 11 2 Introduction 13 3 Study Area 16 4 Methodology 27 5 Climate Change Score Cards (CCSC): A Process 33 6 Resilient Thanjavur – A Think Tank 52 7 Learnings and Limitations 53 8 Conclusions 55 1 Village Profiles 1 – Karuvalarcheri 58 2 Village Profiles 2 – Valapuram 79 3 Village Profiles 3 – Nandhivanam 94 4 Village Profiles 4 – Oourodeyanatham 111 5 Village Profiles 5 – Sathangudi 125 Tables Table 1: List of Study Villages/Panchayats/River System 19 Table 2: Community Perception on Climate Change – Oorudayanatham 20 Table 3: Community Perceptions on Climate Change – Valapuram 22 Table 4: Community Perceptions on Climate Change – Sathangudi 23 Table 5: Community Perceptions on Climate Change – Nandhivanam 24 Table 6: Community Perceptions on Climate Change – Karuvalarcheri 25 Table 7: Highlights of the PRA exercises 40 Table 8: A typical score sheet 44 Table 9: Vulnerability Index Scored by the officials of the Agriculture Department 45 Table 10: Vulnerability Index and Ranking of the study villages 48 Table 11: Format for identifying key options for the issues identified 51 Tables - Village Profiles Table 1: Types and number of houses in Karuvalarcheri 60 Table 2: Main occupations and the number of households involved 61 Table 3: Land Holding in Karuvalarcheri 62 Table 4: Table highlighting the factors that motivate and restrain farmers of Karuvalarcheri to continue farming 63 Table 5: Table highlighting 30 years trend (1984 - 2014) in Karuvalarcheri 68 Table 6: Table representing the performance and use of various services and opportunities for agriculture in Karuvalarcheri 71 Table 7: Scores of Karuvalarcheri by Community Representatives 76 Table 8: Vulnerability Index for Karuvalarcheri 77 Table 9: Table highlighting the options to overcome issues related to Physical Capital, Karuvalarcheri 78 Table 10: Types and number of houses in Valapuram 80 Table 11: Main occupations in Valapuram and the number of households involved 80 Table 12: Land Holding in Valapuram 80 Table 13: Table highlighting the factors that motivate and restrain farmers of Valapuram to continue farming 81 Table 14: Table highlighting 30 years trend (1984 - 2014) in Valapuram 83 Table 15: Table representing the performance and use of various services and opportunities for agriculture in Valapuram 86 Table 16: Scores of Valapuram by Community Representatives 91 Table 17: Vulnerability Index for Valapuram 92 Table 18: Options/Pathways to move to a better scenario – Valapuram 93 Table 19: Types and number of houses in Nandhivanam 95 Table 20: Main occupations in Nandhivanam and the number of households involved 95 Table 21: Land Holding in Nandhivanam 95 Table 22: Table highlighting 30 year trend (1984 - 2014) in Nandhivanam 96 Table 23: Table representing the performance and use of various services and opportunities for agriculture in Nandivanam 98 Table 24: Table highlighting the factors that motivate and restrain farmers of Nandhivanam to continue farming 103 Table 25: Scores of Nandhivanam by Community Representatives 108 Table 26: Vulnerability Index for Nandhivanam 109 Table 27: Options/Pathways to move to a better scenario – Nandivanam 109 Table 28: Types and number of houses in Oourodeyanatham 112 Table 29: Main occupations in Oourodeyanatham and the number of households involved 112 Table 30: Land Holding in Oourodeyanatham 112 Table 31: Table highlighting 30 year trend (1984 - 2014) in Oourodeyanatham 114 Table 32: Table representing the performance and use of various services and opportunities for agriculture in Oourodeyanatham 117 Table 33: Table highlighting the factors that motivate and restrain farmers of Oourodeyanatham to continue farming 119 Table 34: Scores of Oourodeyanatham by Community Representatives 122 Table 35: Vulnerability Index for Oourodeyanatham 123 Table 36: Options/Pathways to move to a better scenario – Oourodeyanatham 124 Table 37: Types and number of houses in Sathangudi 126 Table 38: Main occupations in Sathangudi and the number of households involved 126 Table 39: Land Holding in Sathangudi 126 Table 40: Table highlighting 30 year trend (1984 - 2014) in Sathangudi 127 Table 41: Table representing the performance and use of various services and opportunities for agriculture in Sathangudi 129 Table 42: Table highlighting the factors that motivate and restrain farmers of Sathangudi to continue farming 132 Table 43: The scores of Sathangudi by Community Representatives 134 Table 44: Vulnerability Index for Sathangudi 135 Figures Figure 1: Map of the Cauvery delta zone 14 Figure 2: Map of Tamil Nadu highlighting Thanjavur 17 Figure 3: Map Showing Thanjavur District 18 Figure 4: Map of Kumbakonam Taluk Highlighting the Selected Panchayats 19 Figure 5: Framework for Climate Change Score Card 28 Figure 6: Modified DFID Framework for Sustainable Livelihoods 29 Figure 7: Graph showing variations in Average Minimum Temperature in Cauvery Delta 34 Figure 8: Graph showing the variations in Average Maximum Temperature in Cauvery Delta 34 Figure 9: Mean Annual Temperature Trends for 1951 - 2010 35 Figure 10: Annual Rainfall Trends in India for 1951 - 2010, 36 Figure 11: Average Temperature of Cauvery Delta (1901 - 2000) 37 Figure 12: Classification of indicators based on Livelihood Capitals 43 Figure 13: Analysis of Scores of Researchers, CSOs and Community Representatives 46 Figure 14: Role of Livelihood Capitals on Crop Production 47 Figure 15: Vulnerability of Agriculture in Cauvery Delta 49 Figure 16: Coordinates for Scenario Planning 50 Figures – Village Profiles Figure 1: Role of Livelihood Capital on Agriculture in Karuvalarcheri 76 Figure 2: Scenario Planning for Karuvalarcheri 77 Figure 3 : Role of livelihood Capital on Agriculture in Valapuram 91 Figure 4 : Scenario Planning for Valapuram 92 Figure 5 : Role of Livelihood Capital on Agriculture in Nandhivanam 108 Figure 6 : Scenario planning with prioritised issues – Nandivanam 109 Figure